Asian League · resolved market
Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Henan FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd96d385dc7272bf7beb26f7d71135e880bc9dbdadf8f11b113816fa424810d84
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,817
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,097
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,817 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 27c | 4,922$1,346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,575.96 | 229 | 49.8%114 W · 115 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 67c | 3,031$2,029 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,029.38 | 5,910 | 46.2%2,730 W · 3,180 L | +50.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 74c | 1,930$1,423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,422.58 | 825 | 42.4%350 W · 475 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 26c | 1,773$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,305.38 | 2,467 | 40.3%993 W · 1,474 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Over | 32c | 1,662$531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,130.79 | 1,053 | 41.9%441 W · 612 L | -13.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8a…01cdbacked Over | 57c | 1,395$795 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Over | 54c | 1,125$608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$517.5 | 344 | 47.4%163 W · 181 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…5d07backed Under | 71c | 660.34$469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468.84 | 202 | 38.6%78 W · 124 L | -14.5wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2983…4eb2backed Under | 47c | 422.42$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | -5.5wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Over | 17c | 313.24$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.99 | 217 | 54.4%118 W · 99 L | +10.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 55c | 167.37$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.32 | 876 | 45.1%395 W · 481 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9f…014abacked Under | 28c | 143.19$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 36c | 131.09$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.99 | 708 | 42.5%301 W · 407 L | -26.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 39c | 128.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.21 | 132 | 43.9%58 W · 74 L | -10.9wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 73c | 101.97$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.17 | 206 | 51.5%106 W · 100 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabce…2f87backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 260 | 52.7%137 W · 123 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +13%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 74c | 98.3$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.38 | 1,617 | 36.3%587 W · 1,030 L | -34.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5981…3934backed Over | 38c | 80.5$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.91 | 194 | 51.5%100 W · 94 L | +14.1wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 37c | 60$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 424 | 25.9%110 W · 314 L | -32.7wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3c52…99e1backed Under | 73c | 53.01$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.7 | 82 | 65.9%54 W · 28 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 74cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3968…85b5backed Over | 65c | 51.22$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.93 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | +7.1wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6240…54c0backed Over | 29c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x168c…f24bbacked Under | 54c | 44.63$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 43 | 69.8%30 W · 13 L | +4.8wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x37b0…799fbacked Under | 63c | 42.58$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 72c | 41.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.71 | 371 | 53.9%200 W · 171 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…b3edbacked Under | 74c | 40.54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 65c | 38.85$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 313 | 59.7%187 W · 126 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Under | 73c | 34.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.05 | 251 | 55.8%140 W · 111 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Over | 50c | 29.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.91 | 562 | 45.4%255 W · 307 L | -25.1wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d41…6a2ebacked Over | 55c | 27.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 44c | 27.01$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 2,499 | 42.3%1,057 W · 1,442 L | +52.8wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff06…c7d5backed Under | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 75cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 74c | 23.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 1,959 | 54.6%1,069 W · 890 L | +36.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 57c | 22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 1,354 | 45.4%615 W · 739 L | +14.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81a7…7042backed Under | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Under | 75c | 19.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked Over | 71c | 17.87$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 150 | 68%102 W · 48 L | +16.7wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcf39…7032backed Under | 68c | 15.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b32…3566backed Under | 72c | 14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -4.8wins | -0.30per pick | 61cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Henan FC: O/U 4.5this page
- Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Henan FC: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Henan FC: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Henan FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Henan FC: Henan FC O/U 0.5Over won
- Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Henan FC: O/U 0.5Over won
- Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Henan FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Henan FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Henan FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Henan FC: O/U 5.5Under won
- Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Henan FC: Shanghai Shenhua FC O/U 0.5Over won
- Spread: Henan FC (-1.5)Shanghai Shenhua FC won
- Spread: Henan FC (-2.5)Shanghai Shenhua FC won
- Spread: Shanghai Shenhua FC (-1.5)Shanghai Shenhua FC won
- Spread: Shanghai Shenhua FC (-2.5)Shanghai Shenhua FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.