Movies · resolved market
Will "Eddington" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $5m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xda0502b7ebe3c618614c7c82e24b4ba356cc6fd1157bcfaaf74f3e1022939e0e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,631
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,211
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,631 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed No | 0c | 5,840$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 328 | 14.9%49 W · 279 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x283b…3a9bbacked No | 8c | 1,740$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.23 | 64 | 26.6%17 W · 47 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 2c | 1,311$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.05 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…0fe9backed Yes | 39c | 1,226$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$751.38 | 166 | 24.1%40 W · 126 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f11…ddc4backed Yes | 70c | 1,184$823 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.07 | 150 | 59.3%89 W · 61 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x20d7…7f5cbacked No | 3c | 1,157$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.35 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcd…cbfbbacked No | 26c | 833.71$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed No | 46c | 751.39$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.64 | 200 | 49.5%99 W · 101 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 15c | 700$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.5 | 187 | 19.3%36 W · 151 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc5d…3deabacked No | 69c | 642.38$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.72 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 64cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa70…8f17backed No | 3c | 600$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7de…b802backed No | 55c | 583.37$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.93 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 15c | 513.86$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.97 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x917d…601abacked Yes | 40c | 301.63$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.47 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36bd…7469backed Yes | 67c | 299.21$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.21 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 38cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ec…1dadbacked No | 30c | 181$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.04 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 8c | 160.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a07…05c1backed No | 11c | 141.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 12c | 120$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed No | 13c | 103.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 62 | 22.6%14 W · 48 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc230…6192backed No | 29c | 90$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7732…fa11backed Yes | 70c | 55.36$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.69 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0db9…d97cbacked Yes | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x300f…d366backed Yes | 48c | 33.18$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.18 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3d…b13abacked Yes | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Eddington" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $5m?this page
- Will "Eddington" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $5-6.5m?No won
- Will "Eddington" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $6.5m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.