Tennis · resolved market
Erste Bank Open: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Filip Misolic
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xda31995497e978d8536136e00e3c573456c87a3784e8dcdbdd7548fcff9b9bc3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Misolicof Carabelli, Misolic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,057
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,355
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,057 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xade8…b0bdbacked Carabelli | 24c | 8,981$2,149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,149.23 | 158 | 32.3%51 W · 107 L | -13.6wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Misolic | 71c | 3,689$2,624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,064.94 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Misolic | 73c | 2,389$1,752 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$636.2 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Misolic | 68c | 1,231$833 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.59 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ef5…325ebacked Misolic | 71c | 863.38$613 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.38 | 99 | 61.6%61 W · 38 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8de5…e957backed Misolic | 71c | 663.04$471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.28 | 94 | 52.1%49 W · 45 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Carabelli | 24c | 564.39$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.99 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Carabelli | 47c | 507.8$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.03 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Misolic | 65c | 506.65$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.76 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Carabelli | 34c | 500$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.56 | 819 | 38.9%319 W · 500 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1e…230abacked Carabelli | 17c | 400$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 318 | 19.2%61 W · 257 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60b6…eb2bbacked Misolic | 71c | 376.06$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.16 | 174 | 42.5%74 W · 100 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x412a…802cbacked Carabelli | 34c | 342.47$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.44 | 71 | 49.3%35 W · 36 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Carabelli | 29c | 256.72$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.27 | 951 | 40.1%381 W · 570 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Carabelli | 29c | 241.93$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Misolic | 75c | 241$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.13 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Carabelli | 29c | 200.12$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.48 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked Carabelli | 31c | 200$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 189 | 43.4%82 W · 107 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e93…69d5backed Misolic | 66c | 196.59$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.59 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef13…53d2backed Carabelli | 33c | 151.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 250 | 43.2%108 W · 142 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Misolic | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Misolic | 64c | 140.89$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.31 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Misolic | 73c | 138.89$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.82 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Carabelli | 29c | 134.3$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.53 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Carabelli | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 629 | 52.1%328 W · 301 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf83…915dbacked Carabelli | 39c | 76.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 645 | 37.2%240 W · 405 L | -7.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Carabelli | 36c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Carabelli | 38c | 53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08cc…da60backed Misolic | 66c | 51.5$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.51 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70a1…978abacked Carabelli | 33c | 45.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 884 | 46.8%414 W · 470 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Misolic | 52c | 41$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.84 | 439 | 48.5%213 W · 226 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc14…1dd2backed Misolic | 72c | 34.72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba4f…7ecebacked Carabelli | 33c | 30.91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 81 | 59.3%48 W · 33 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe0…7f8bbacked Misolic | 60c | 20.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.