World Politics · resolved market
Will Communist Party of Nepal (UML) win the most seats in the Nepal House of Representatives election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xda620e6bb7e13392130ba337cb4efbaa59950dc4846ec635f918cfbe9dee24a6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $83,790
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $83,790 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x60cc…f23fbacked Yes | 1c | 26,097$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.27 | 182 | 14.8%27 W · 155 L | +11.4wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | +218.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa45c…1d10backed Yes | 2c | 4,973$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.38 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 3,954$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.48 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2f0…e60bbacked Yes | 3c | 3,823$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 2c | 2,884$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.95 | 150 | 26%39 W · 111 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7257…fc40backed Yes | 2c | 2,665$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.15 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e1…e46fbacked Yes | 5c | 2,497$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.78 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 3c | 2,122$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.99 | 76 | 18.4%14 W · 62 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3de…e227backed Yes | 4c | 1,617$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.37 | 239 | 21.3%51 W · 188 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…cbdcbacked Yes | 3c | 1,600$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.93 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -65.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 1,370$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.92 | 234 | 4.3%10 W · 224 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,222$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 131 | 39.7%52 W · 79 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf42f…a6a7backed Yes | 2c | 999.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 197 | 42.6%84 W · 113 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 4c | 774.26$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.86 | 241 | 10.8%26 W · 215 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -34%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a8…67d6backed Yes | 2c | 760.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6276…2dd9backed Yes | 3c | 756.19$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.69 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 2c | 483.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 55 | 12.7%7 W · 48 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c15…45a0backed Yes | 3c | 466.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d93…8cbebacked Yes | 4c | 375$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 169 | 40.2%68 W · 101 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 3c | 368.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 347 | 26.8%93 W · 254 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf802…da1dbacked Yes | 3c | 368.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacfe…b164backed Yes | 6c | 352.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 9c | 230.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.05 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0aa5…12fabacked Yes | 18c | 140.51$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca00…3bbabacked Yes | 16c | 122$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe947…7a45backed No | 75c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.21 | 170 | 44.1%75 W · 95 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9437…6c5dbacked No | 79c | 33.67$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.92 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | +3.8wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Communist Party of Nepal (UML) win the most seats in the Nepal House of Representatives election?this page
- Will Loktantrik Samajwadi Party Nepal win the most seats in the Nepal House of Representatives election?No won
- Will Nepali Communist Party win the most seats in the Nepal House of Representatives election?No won
- Will Nepali Congress win the most seats in the Nepal House of Representatives election?No won
- Will Rastriya Janamorcha win the most seats in the Nepal House of Representatives election?No won
- Will Rastriya Prajatantra Party win the most seats in the Nepal House of Representatives election?No won
- Will Rastriya Swatantra Party win the most seats in the Nepal House of Representatives election?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.