WNBA · resolved market
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xda81b6f0df8e97dbde220ea7961c733195143ad0165ebe9166d61bdb68eb50fa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Las Vegas Acesof Las Vegas Aces, Golden State Valkyries
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $77,710
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $98,027
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $77,710 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7634…600dbacked Las Vegas Aces | 62c | 24,000$14,960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,039.69 | 161 | 52.2%84 W · 77 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ef…9e7abacked Las Vegas Aces | 50c | 17,991$8,983 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,008.31 | 115 | 45.2%52 W · 63 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Golden State Valkyries | 44c | 14,328$6,246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,245.52 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Golden State Valkyries | 43c | 9,730$4,147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,146.91 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b10…acabbacked Golden State Valkyries | 37c | 4,454$1,648 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,648.06 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Golden State Valkyries | 44c | 3,515$1,531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,530.62 | 785 | 48.8%383 W · 402 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Golden State Valkyries | 50c | 2,589$1,292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,291.64 | 143 | 46.2%66 W · 77 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Golden State Valkyries | 49c | 2,371$1,158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,158.46 | 851 | 58.4%497 W · 354 L | +70.2wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd24f…d0a8backed Las Vegas Aces | 46c | 2,281$1,049 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,231.49 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfa6…6c6cbacked Golden State Valkyries | 48c | 2,000$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$960 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -5.5wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Las Vegas Aces | 52c | 2,000$1,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960 | 144 | 50.7%73 W · 71 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Golden State Valkyries | 52c | 1,525$793 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$793 | 506 | 46.8%237 W · 269 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72f8…8ea0backed Golden State Valkyries | 56c | 1,259$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0dc…586cbacked Golden State Valkyries | 53c | 1,014$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540 | 62 | 37.1%23 W · 39 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Golden State Valkyries | 50c | 764$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382 | 552 | 55.1%304 W · 248 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Golden State Valkyries | 50c | 735$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.5 | 378 | 50%189 W · 189 L | +9.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Golden State Valkyries | 56c | 488.66$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.9 | 327 | 43.7%143 W · 184 L | -23.7wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Golden State Valkyries | 39c | 479.13$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.58 | 509 | 52.5%267 W · 242 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8077…ffefbacked Las Vegas Aces | 37c | 478.08$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.19 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +8.0wins | +0.42per pick | 37cpaid | +163.8%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xbc5b…3f6abacked Las Vegas Aces | 59c | 442.14$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.28 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Las Vegas Aces | 52c | 391.01$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.72 | 387 | 44.7%173 W · 214 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3673…2d13backed Las Vegas Aces | 44c | 330$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.8 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Golden State Valkyries | 54c | 292$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.68 | 211 | 50.2%106 W · 105 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked Golden State Valkyries | 50c | 259.96$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.98 | 133 | 46.6%62 W · 71 L | -9.0wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Golden State Valkyries | 50c | 250$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 134 | 40.3%54 W · 80 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Golden State Valkyries | 42c | 247$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.26 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Golden State Valkyries | 54c | 240$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.6 | 922 | 48.8%450 W · 472 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Golden State Valkyries | 37c | 202.7$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Golden State Valkyries | 43c | 195.78$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.64 | 167 | 45.5%76 W · 91 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Las Vegas Aces | 44c | 180$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.8 | 74 | 31.1%23 W · 51 L | -6.3wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b2b…e5e7backed Golden State Valkyries | 57c | 175.61$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Golden State Valkyries | 55c | 169.61$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.29 | 837 | 48.1%403 W · 434 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbd1…fa9bbacked Las Vegas Aces | 45c | 166.67$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.67 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x041b…d3ebbacked Golden State Valkyries | 54c | 166.67$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Las Vegas Aces | 55c | 162.79$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.03 | 112 | 53.6%60 W · 52 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Golden State Valkyries | 56c | 91.5$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.24 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde0f…a4e7backed Las Vegas Aces | 51c | 75.53$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.81 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 50cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b95…5733backed Golden State Valkyries | 53c | 74.81$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.65 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb27b…5d6ebacked Golden State Valkyries | 56c | 69.64$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a72…0a38backed Las Vegas Aces | 43c | 67$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.19 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +5.0wins | +0.12per pick | 37cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x00d4…4c46backed Las Vegas Aces | 43c | 67$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.19 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +3.6wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca2…088ebacked Las Vegas Aces | 43c | 67$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.19 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Golden State Valkyries | 43c | 66$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | -7.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Golden State Valkyries | 50c | 56.54$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.01 | 109 | 35.8%39 W · 70 L | -13.8wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Golden State Valkyries | 58c | 53.73$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.18 | 610 | 42.5%259 W · 351 L | -31.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda54…b8a1backed Golden State Valkyries | 56c | 50.27$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.15 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd37…e117backed Las Vegas Aces | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 92 | 54.3%50 W · 42 L | +8.1wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +24%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Golden State Valkyries | 40c | 36.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66e4…5583backed Golden State Valkyries | 50c | 35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa9…9945backed Golden State Valkyries | 50c | 31.51$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.25per pick | 43cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1d50…d283backed Golden State Valkyries | 42c | 30.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1bc…7e33backed Las Vegas Aces | 44c | 28.54$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.02 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +3.3wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +125.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Golden State Valkyries | 54c | 28.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 426 | 49.3%210 W · 216 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8428…b41fbacked Las Vegas Aces | 65c | 25.22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.91 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed Golden State Valkyries | 44c | 23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a0e…accebacked Golden State Valkyries | 54c | 21.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x130a…5c12backed Las Vegas Aces | 48c | 21.23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Golden State Valkyries | 56c | 21.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 192 | 45.8%88 W · 104 L | -12.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e38…b4cbbacked Golden State Valkyries | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2638…8e2dbacked Golden State Valkyries | 55c | 19.04$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 49 | 61.2%30 W · 19 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe601…79a3backed Las Vegas Aces | 60c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +70.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-4.5)this page
- Golden State Valkyries vs. Las Vegas AcesLas Vegas Aces won
- Golden State Valkyries vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 167.5Under won
- Golden State Valkyries vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 169.5Under won
- Golden State Valkyries vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 170.5Under won
- Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-3.5)Las Vegas Aces won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.