South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Estudiantes de La Plata vs. CA Independiente end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xda86e5d884f425fca666492ba10d5117ffd3a913bc51e639ba376c1ed3bfed5f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,513
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,573
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,513 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 53c | 3,773$2,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,772.19 | 2,287 | 34.3%784 W · 1,503 L | -30.0wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed Yes | 56c | 1,578$878 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$877.86 | 237 | 33.8%80 W · 157 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c80…93b5backed Yes | 42c | 803$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.26 | 159 | 45.9%73 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 3c | 780.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 1,366 | 52.4%716 W · 650 L | +51.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Yes | 2c | 702.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 1,444 | 56.4%815 W · 629 L | +51.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 3c | 671.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 5,762 | 45.4%2,614 W · 3,148 L | +94.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked No | 58c | 614.86$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.05 | 752 | 40.8%307 W · 445 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31a1…1227backed Yes | 50c | 600$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cda…1397backed Yes | 34c | 588.74$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 52c | 334.26$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.12 | 1,537 | 45.2%695 W · 842 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked No | 52c | 316.29$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.05 | 127 | 37.8%48 W · 79 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 33c | 314.52$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.79 | 1,442 | 37.6%542 W · 900 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f39…e279backed No | 62c | 310.13$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117 | 172 | 51.2%88 W · 84 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xccf6…b29fbacked Yes | 46c | 230.26$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86a6…1b3ebacked Yes | 51c | 217.46$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.9 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -3.3wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed No | 72c | 201.05$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.45 | 538 | 36.8%198 W · 340 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 33c | 190.32$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.32 | 1,362 | 44.9%611 W · 751 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x532b…dd2dbacked Yes | 40c | 190$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.24 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb8a…45aabacked Yes | 49c | 163.27$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 67cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c09…b9b3backed Yes | 50c | 150$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.5 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6695…1aabbacked Yes | 40c | 137.74$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed No | 53c | 131.99$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.47 | 352 | 46.9%165 W · 187 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 51c | 131.43$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.9 | 824 | 34.5%284 W · 540 L | -17.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed No | 69c | 120.74$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.32 | 289 | 40.1%116 W · 173 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf5…2307backed No | 62c | 107$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.09 | 86 | 57%49 W · 37 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +29%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…e63cbacked No | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 77 | 46.8%36 W · 41 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe766…7843backed No | 62c | 70.99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.99 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked Yes | 25c | 61.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 308 | 47.7%147 W · 161 L | +13.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked No | 48c | 59.83$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.01 | 268 | 35.1%94 W · 174 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a49…737abacked Yes | 53c | 52.56$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe29c…a31dbacked Yes | 34c | 48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 168 | 45.2%76 W · 92 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9d7…fcbbbacked Yes | 49c | 43.61$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3735…1525backed No | 50c | 43$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc785…4ef2backed No | 60c | 38.95$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.48 | 219 | 38.8%85 W · 134 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed No | 43c | 29.84$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.01 | 464 | 49.6%230 W · 234 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 67c | 29.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 1,945 | 51.3%998 W · 947 L | +40.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ef…dddabacked Yes | 51c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed No | 74c | 17.7$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 1,253 | 56.2%704 W · 549 L | +73.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Estudiantes de La Plata vs. CA Independiente end in a draw?this page
- Will CA Independiente win on 2026-07-26?Yes won
- Will Estudiantes de La Plata win on 2026-07-26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.