TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

Games Total: O/U 4.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,627
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,530

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,627 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6918…782bbacked Under79c1,900$1,501 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$399.341,50154.5%818 W · 683 L+34.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7787backed Under77c999.99$770 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23064443%277 W · 367 L-27.0wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-12.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x39d3…9ef0backed Over23c832$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.598143.2%35 W · 46 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid+0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf20b…e27dbacked Over21c600$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12634849.1%171 W · 177 L+11.5wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+13.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x41bb…6302backed Over21c404.76$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$859244.6%41 W · 51 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f03…b1bebacked Under76c275.5$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.121,13252.5%594 W · 538 L+7.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xedf7…4003backed Over21c240$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.474637.9%283 W · 463 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x822b…61fdbacked Over21c238.69$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.12825%2 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-46.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xde56…c2f9backed Over23c222.39$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.11850%9 W · 9 L+2.1wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+7.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6f83…3af9backed Over21c204.76$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$431020%2 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-35.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6277…5a3fbacked Over21c189.05$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.790537.5%339 W · 566 L-18.8wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Over20c163.69$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.742,20233.3%733 W · 1,469 L-72.4wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-21.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x94b9…2592backed Over24c63.75$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.3933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-24.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeff4…2aa4backed Under65c30$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.533263.6%211 W · 121 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick62cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed Under77c21.2$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.871,31049.2%644 W · 666 L-23.8wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-2.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.