Lol · resolved market

LoL: Galions vs TLN Pirates - Game 3 Winner

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1e5241a4792a1e074804415dd2d3e370aeb111b1a3900a6ba42b1e25799c9f2b

Rebuilt 38 minutes ago.

Winning outcome: Galionsof Galions, TLN Pirates
Resolved: May 28, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $48,995
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $52,194

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,995 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Lol
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xcf60…a6f5backed Galions	70c	22,756$15,900 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6,855.42	918	54%496 W · 422 L	-1.5wins	0.00per pick	54cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed TLN Pirates	30c	9,255$2,776 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,776.38	1,098	34.8%382 W · 716 L	-17.1wins	-0.02per pick	36cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef26…05babacked TLN Pirates	30c	8,301$2,513 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,513.34	1,259	37.6%473 W · 786 L	+34.1wins	+0.03per pick	35cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked Galions	72c	6,658$4,786 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,872.46	2,004	58.2%1,166 W · 838 L	+86.9wins	+0.04per pick	54cpaid	+9.6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked TLN Pirates	27c	3,884$1,063 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,062.65	2,406	42.6%1,026 W · 1,380 L	+21.5wins	+0.01per pick	42cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6277…5a3fbacked TLN Pirates	29c	2,598$752 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$752.4	905	37.5%339 W · 566 L	-18.8wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x048f…9992backed TLN Pirates	1c	2,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	592	0%0 W · 592 L	-7.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1943…1561backed TLN Pirates	29c	1,714$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	384	39.8%153 W · 231 L	-10.1wins	-0.03per pick	42cpaid	-27.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7553…65cabacked TLN Pirates	28c	1,613$452 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$451.64	672	50.9%342 W · 330 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x31a4…7afcbacked TLN Pirates	27c	1,457$393 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$393.5	878	44.2%388 W · 490 L	+6.5wins	+0.01per pick	43cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3737…bfd1backed Galions	73c	1,039$759 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$280.66	379	57.5%218 W · 161 L	+4.4wins	+0.01per pick	56cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe752…2200backed TLN Pirates	1c	1,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	154	3.9%6 W · 148 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-87%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5b10…9659backed Galions	72c	1,000$720 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$280	1,435	57.4%824 W · 611 L	+36.0wins	+0.03per pick	55cpaid	+5.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x60ee…45cebacked TLN Pirates	13c	999.99$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130	88	40.9%36 W · 52 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	42cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1365…c82abacked Galions	74c	992.92$730 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$262.45	989	56.8%562 W · 427 L	+24.7wins	+0.02per pick	54cpaid	+5.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd93b…cd48backed TLN Pirates	29c	780.05$226 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$226.21	329	39.8%131 W · 198 L	-3.8wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf859…a183backed Galions	72c	750$538 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$212.5	1,213	52.3%635 W · 578 L	+33.5wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed TLN Pirates	30c	750$225 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$225	1,468	28.9%424 W · 1,044 L	+23.5wins	+0.02per pick	27cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd65…5726backed Galions	73c	665.79$489 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$176.45	154	53.9%83 W · 71 L	-3.8wins	-0.02per pick	56cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe74b…ee88backed TLN Pirates	28c	644.99$178 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$177.75	862	51.3%442 W · 420 L	+51.5wins	+0.06per pick	45cpaid	+13.5%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd525…1815backed TLN Pirates	28c	640$179 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$179.2	136	32.4%44 W · 92 L	-10.3wins	-0.08per pick	40cpaid	-26.3%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed TLN Pirates	33c	610$201 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$201.3	2,362	32%755 W · 1,607 L	+42.0wins	+0.02per pick	30cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Galions	69c	517$357 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$160.27	401	45.4%182 W · 219 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed TLN Pirates	31c	506.66$157 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$157.06	2,226	37.5%834 W · 1,392 L	-29.3wins	-0.01per pick	39cpaid	-9.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked TLN Pirates	29c	488.44$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$139.56	1,899	37.1%705 W · 1,194 L	-113.9wins	-0.06per pick	43cpaid	-32.7%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb891…969bbacked TLN Pirates	23c	459.99$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105.4	1,447	13.3%192 W · 1,255 L	-109.5wins	-0.08per pick	21cpaid	-35.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x53e9…5ef8backed TLN Pirates	23c	449.99$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103.5	942	37.3%351 W · 591 L	+51.0wins	+0.05per pick	32cpaid	+10.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcfad…fa05backed Galions	73c	410.96$300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$110.96	1,218	58.1%708 W · 510 L	+44.2wins	+0.04per pick	54cpaid	+7.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffd…7821backed TLN Pirates	28c	385.97$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.85	780	43.1%336 W · 444 L	-22.3wins	-0.03per pick	46cpaid	-25.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8e11…e1f5backed TLN Pirates	30c	313.77$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.13	86	44.2%38 W · 48 L	-1.7wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1920…2be1backed TLN Pirates	34c	290.4$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	24	75%18 W · 6 L	+3.9wins	+0.16per pick	59cpaid	+47.2%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7cba…3ec4backed TLN Pirates	30c	266.67$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	1,545	43.7%675 W · 870 L	-18.6wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f08…e919backed TLN Pirates	28c	213.95$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	476	30.7%146 W · 330 L	-13.4wins	-0.03per pick	33cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x94f4…77a2backed Galions	73c	204.29$149 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54.82	77	55.8%43 W · 34 L	+2.3wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+6.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdfcf…a26ebacked TLN Pirates	8c	200$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	363	31.1%113 W · 250 L	-2.1wins	-0.01per pick	32cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ff7…bf32backed Galions	72c	199.3$143 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$55.8	664	58%385 W · 279 L	+4.4wins	+0.01per pick	57cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ff8…5e5dbacked Galions	72c	198.69$143 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$55.47	129	53.5%69 W · 60 L	-4.8wins	-0.04per pick	57cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x466b…7fd3backed Galions	73c	172.75$126 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46.64	92	55.4%51 W · 41 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	55cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x78e8…3c36backed TLN Pirates	30c	166.67$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	180	36.1%65 W · 115 L	+3.2wins	+0.02per pick	34cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x09fd…60f7backed TLN Pirates	9c	166.67$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	72	20.8%15 W · 57 L	-1.9wins	-0.03per pick	23cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed TLN Pirates	27c	160$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.02	3,131	33.8%1,058 W · 2,073 L	-150.7wins	-0.05per pick	39cpaid	-34.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6bea…5d50backed TLN Pirates	26c	142.46$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.04	690	41.3%285 W · 405 L	-16.7wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x614b…ca37backed TLN Pirates	27c	141.78$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.28	86	52.3%45 W · 41 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4dbd…4476backed Galions	71c	140.85$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.85	258	53.5%138 W · 120 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7900…3393backed Galions	76c	121.86$92 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.47	156	56.4%88 W · 68 L	+1.7wins	+0.01per pick	55cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd48…8e98backed TLN Pirates	18c	112.89$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	50	20%10 W · 40 L	-1.6wins	-0.03per pick	23cpaid	-30.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0ac…4ec7backed TLN Pirates	30c	100.88$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	204	39.2%80 W · 124 L	-9.4wins	-0.05per pick	44cpaid	-18.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd2ff…906cbacked Galions	72c	100$72 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28	126	56.3%71 W · 55 L	-1.9wins	-0.02per pick	58cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f48…ba84backed Galions	67c	100$67 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33	4	50%2 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-29.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfc8f…3782backed TLN Pirates	31c	95.69$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.6	1,310	37.3%489 W · 821 L	-86.3wins	-0.07per pick	44cpaid	-26.4%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked TLN Pirates	29c	91.51$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.53	1,922	42.2%811 W · 1,111 L	-45.6wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-22.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a02…a770backed Galions	73c	87.09$64 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.37	1,372	48.6%667 W · 705 L	+57.5wins	+0.04per pick	44cpaid	+10.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x56fc…affbbacked Galions	73c	82$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.34	447	51%228 W · 219 L	+6.7wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe61a…292dbacked Galions	74c	80.96$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.08	461	54.9%253 W · 208 L	+8.0wins	+0.02per pick	53cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeef9…8731backed Galions	66c	78$51 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.52	347	56.5%196 W · 151 L	+12.2wins	+0.04per pick	53cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf5d5…11f0backed Galions	76c	65.79$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.79	93	53.8%50 W · 43 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd206…bd2abacked Galions	73c	64.4$47 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.39	116	59.5%69 W · 47 L	+3.4wins	+0.03per pick	57cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f43…3a74backed TLN Pirates	30c	61.23$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.37	584	37.2%217 W · 367 L	-7.9wins	-0.01per pick	39cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd16b…36c0backed TLN Pirates	21c	60.6$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.47	478	54%258 W · 220 L	-16.9wins	-0.04per pick	58cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf3a6…52d2backed Galions	71c	60.47$43 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.54	346	67.6%234 W · 112 L	-7.9wins	-0.02per pick	70cpaid	-3.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc72…cd13backed TLN Pirates	34c	60$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.4	140	38.6%54 W · 86 L	-5.4wins	-0.04per pick	42cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb24a…fd7ebacked Galions	74c	59.46$44 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.46	92	60.9%56 W · 36 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	60cpaid	+4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2060…9e6cbacked Galions	74c	58.09$43 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.26	186	55.9%104 W · 82 L	-5.3wins	-0.03per pick	59cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6fb2…bd2dbacked Galions	75c	56.71$43 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.12	386	55.2%213 W · 173 L	+1.5wins	0.00per pick	55cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6e31…0e6ebacked Galions	71c	56.34$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.34	238	80.3%191 W · 47 L	+16.2wins	+0.07per pick	73cpaid	+9%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x48ef…8444backed Galions	73c	55.33$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.94	78	60.3%47 W · 31 L	+4.7wins	+0.06per pick	54cpaid	+10.4%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1d4b…50c5backed Galions	73c	52.78$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.25	34	29.4%10 W · 24 L	-8.1wins	-0.24per pick	53cpaid	-53.9%equal weight	35-0.14 edge/pick
0xdc3b…d591backed TLN Pirates	24c	50.65$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.41	94	50%47 W · 47 L	+2.8wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x28dc…357bbacked TLN Pirates	28c	50$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	78	59%46 W · 32 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	59cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed TLN Pirates	27c	44.11$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.91	1,207	43.5%525 W · 682 L	-14.0wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-11%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe2f4…9c34backed Galions	73c	44.03$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.69	15	40%6 W · 9 L	-3.7wins	-0.25per pick	65cpaid	-43.4%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xc37d…e586backed Galions	74c	41.12$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.69	19	47.4%9 W · 10 L	-1.7wins	-0.09per pick	56cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa306…a39dbacked Galions	71c	40$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.6	235	59.6%140 W · 95 L	+2.2wins	+0.01per pick	59cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3073…3413backed Galions	75c	40$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	189	60.3%114 W · 75 L	+10.5wins	+0.06per pick	55cpaid	+10.4%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1025…fbfabacked Galions	79c	37.9$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.9	514	54.5%280 W · 234 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x048f…cf1abacked Galions	73c	36$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.6	438	60.5%265 W · 173 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	58cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x29a5…a3c4backed Galions	69c	30$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.3	751	50.7%381 W · 370 L	+3.8wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x272d…bc2fbacked Galions	76c	29.1$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.98	285	53%151 W · 134 L	+8.6wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x85ca…16cebacked Galions	73c	27.58$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.45	132	53%70 W · 62 L	-3.5wins	-0.03per pick	56cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdaee…8559backed Galions	74c	26.01$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.76	573	51.3%294 W · 279 L	-10.1wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c5a…f9cfbacked Galions	74c	23.07$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.92	131	61.8%81 W · 50 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	61cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c78…aad1backed Galions	68c	22.18$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.18	1,251	54.1%677 W · 574 L	-29.8wins	-0.02per pick	56cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked Galions	74c	20$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.2	858	49.5%425 W · 433 L	+6.1wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-11.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1fc4…7ae7backed Galions	69c	20$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.2	55	49.1%27 W · 28 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc126…08f1backed Galions	68c	19.79$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.33	153	53.6%82 W · 71 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	54cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5e2f…f9babacked Galions	74c	18.82$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.96	295	54.2%160 W · 135 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	54cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5210…b387backed Galions	71c	17.7$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.13	647	49.5%320 W · 327 L	+3.0wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-3%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x36f2…a6fabacked Galions	73c	14.71$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.97	186	55.4%103 W · 83 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	56cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

LoL: Galions vs TLN Pirates - Game 3 Winnerthis page
Game Handicap: GAL (-1.5) vs TLN Pirates (+1.5)Galions won
Game Handicap: GAL (-2.5) vs TLN Pirates (+2.5)TLN Pirates won
Games Total: O/U 3.5Over won
Games Total: O/U 4.5Under won
LoL: Galions vs TLN Pirates (BO5) - LFL PlayoffsGalions won
LoL: Galions vs TLN Pirates - Game 1 WinnerTLN Pirates won
LoL: Galions vs TLN Pirates - Game 2 WinnerGalions won
LoL: Galions vs TLN Pirates - Game 4 WinnerGalions won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

LoL: Galions vs TLN Pirates - Game 3 Winner

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event