Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on May 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdb34ea94f17c6b028bbfe6f4ad855404c6299c69fd680c9a729f055eba95ab81
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,534
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,249
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,534 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf430…e6bcbacked Yes | 13c | 928.19$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.49 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 5c | 729.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.99 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1535…d77bbacked Yes | 25c | 499.64$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.91 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1250…db19backed No | 77c | 399.37$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.92 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 17c | 396.18$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.21 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 14c | 258.09$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.89 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f4…665ebacked Yes | 16c | 251.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.25 | 142 | 64.1%91 W · 51 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 19c | 229.95$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.85 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 14c | 222.89$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.92 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4c…830abacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 61 | 4.9%3 W · 58 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6396…7183backed Yes | 16c | 199.95$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.99 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | -9.5wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 9c | 159.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 21c | 153.51$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.89 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 28c | 148.66$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.89 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 73c | 148.07$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.41 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 25c | 142.27$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.04 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 19c | 141.2$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.24 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 19c | 122.72$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.89 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b7d…ebc1backed Yes | 12c | 117.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7c…d7b8backed Yes | 19c | 110$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ad…ff75backed Yes | 16c | 110$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 10c | 106.06$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe217…5c75backed Yes | 21c | 102.56$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.39 | 160 | 30%48 W · 112 L | -15.2wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6260…6b21backed Yes | 18c | 102.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 45 | 11.1%5 W · 40 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1acf…d02ebacked Yes | 10c | 102.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…9752backed No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7d…9e7abacked Yes | 20c | 99.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x529c…64b6backed Yes | 14c | 96.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 57 | 19.3%11 W · 46 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff9b…6a02backed Yes | 15c | 93.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 158 | 34.2%54 W · 104 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 79c | 88.89$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.89 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b35…b8f8backed Yes | 15c | 80$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 88 | 33%29 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7740…a03cbacked Yes | 14c | 79.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 74 | 25.7%19 W · 55 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 15c | 76.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f0…835cbacked Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 109 | 37.6%41 W · 68 L | -9.6wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 78c | 65.11$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.58 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa159…ac8ebacked Yes | 24c | 59.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc84…a0d2backed Yes | 27c | 52.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 106 | 34.9%37 W · 69 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5005…620cbacked No | 78c | 51.21$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.21 | 59 | 61%36 W · 23 L | -6.8wins | -0.12per pick | 73cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdbff…06d2backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 99 | 32.3%32 W · 67 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61b8…e749backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x635a…cccbbacked Yes | 31c | 48.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | +7.3wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 73c | 47.3$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6345…c77dbacked Yes | 31c | 45.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…885fbacked Yes | 36c | 41.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 80c | 40.11$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.02 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dba…5b01backed No | 77c | 33.09$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 57 | 66.7%38 W · 19 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 72cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 78c | 28.3$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2aa…3e28backed No | 75c | 26.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.79 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2060…9e6cbacked No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 47 | 66%31 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c08…724fbacked No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.57 | 60 | 73.3%44 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 72cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.37 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2c…5dc1backed No | 80c | 22$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 73c | 21.64$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.84 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…71d7backed No | 71c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 333 | 73%243 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0d…37a2backed No | 78c | 20.42$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 75cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 75c | 20.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.01 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf075…3f43backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 108 | 66.7%72 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1e…9095backed No | 72c | 19.44$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 173 | 76.3%132 W · 41 L | +11.7wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9a…e084backed No | 80c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.8 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 73cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a7…9c23backed No | 75c | 15.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.89 | 178 | 38.8%69 W · 109 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba6f…8c1fbacked No | 79c | 15.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.19 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 73c | 15.08$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.13 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b1…f426backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on May 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C or higher on May 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.