Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa8f79b273047422cf96dfd13afb75b31038404ca9908981bde3e4c2d00a15efd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,143
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,731
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,143 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 30c | 812.77$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.42 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 43c | 298.94$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.75 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 74c | 259.21$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.25 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c29…f3bbbacked Yes | 37c | 237.93$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.11 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +22%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf430…e6bcbacked Yes | 26c | 225.09$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.41 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a7…9c23backed Yes | 42c | 210$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.54 | 178 | 38.8%69 W · 109 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 59c | 189.8$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.25 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked No | 41c | 181.81$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.17 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 75c | 162.5$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.12 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1250…db19backed Yes | 34c | 148.48$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.75 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 20c | 137.08$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.51 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfeda…b697backed No | 80c | 135.14$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.38 | 88 | 72.7%64 W · 24 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 61c | 128.17$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.6 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x276d…ea8fbacked No | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 20c | 105.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.96 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 29c | 102.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.67 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 70c | 100.67$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.54 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8189…d55dbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83e3…5652backed Yes | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.85 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7d…9e7abacked Yes | 24c | 99.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb00…5461backed Yes | 20c | 93.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.67 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcce…65afbacked No | 76c | 91.58$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.73 | 277 | 71.5%198 W · 79 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 18c | 89.39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.47 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 36c | 83$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.49 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd12…7f29backed Yes | 22c | 80$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 154 | 37.7%58 W · 96 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8f…de8abacked Yes | 17c | 80$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 166 | 26.5%44 W · 122 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 23c | 78.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 68c | 77.65$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.64 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64da…2292backed Yes | 34c | 74.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 58 | 24.1%14 W · 44 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1acf…d02ebacked No | 69c | 73.79$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.77 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 37c | 70.71$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.44 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…f822backed Yes | 18c | 70$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 194 | 30.4%59 W · 135 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa596…15e9backed No | 76c | 65.48$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.48 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 64cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac5…852cbacked Yes | 46c | 64.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.52 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd0…3df2backed No | 37c | 63.8$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.27 | 91 | 47.3%43 W · 48 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 61c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.22 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8d…6724backed No | 74c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 18 | 83.3%15 W · 3 L | +3.2wins | +0.18per pick | 65cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6719…a34dbacked Yes | 34c | 58.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 91 | 29.7%27 W · 64 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 31c | 58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 22c | 56.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f4…3fdbbacked No | 68c | 54$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.28 | 273 | 35.9%98 W · 175 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 63c | 53.07$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.83 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 32c | 52.75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbff…06d2backed Yes | 20c | 51.88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 99 | 32.3%32 W · 67 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed No | 79c | 51$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 349 | 70.2%245 W · 104 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 21c | 50.79$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f4…665ebacked No | 79c | 50.7$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.65 | 142 | 64.1%91 W · 51 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 70c | 49.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 66c | 49.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 27c | 49.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes | 59c | 47.44$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.78 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -17%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 78c | 45.79$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.02 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 74c | 44.67$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed No | 69c | 43.04$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.22 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x827d…b1f0backed No | 77c | 40.73$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2e…c9e1backed No | 36c | 40.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.06 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -14.5wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd33…5452backed Yes | 57c | 40.17$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.9 | 111 | 40.5%45 W · 66 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x375d…62c5backed Yes | 26c | 39.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 83 | 25.3%21 W · 62 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked No | 70c | 37.35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 169 | 68%115 W · 54 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe14a…c6c8backed No | 40c | 31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb201…2766backed Yes | 34c | 30.51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1828…6946backed Yes | 38c | 28.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 75 | 56%42 W · 33 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 62c | 28.44$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.95 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x240a…6c43backed Yes | 52c | 27.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33b7…0589backed No | 72c | 26.67$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 86 | 73.3%63 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed No | 67c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 52c | 24.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 74c | 24.76$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x245e…eab4backed No | 77c | 23.49$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 85 | 74.1%63 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 77cpaid | -4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 68c | 22.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.19 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9b…492abacked No | 76c | 22.27$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.34 | 173 | 65.3%113 W · 60 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8e…d3b4backed Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 29 | 75.9%22 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x053b…d0fabacked Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 63c | 19.96$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x072f…86b1backed No | 75c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.81 | 111 | 51.4%57 W · 54 L | -8.0wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x398b…0489backed No | 79c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba6e…e245backed No | 76c | 16.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.03 | 86 | 76.7%66 W · 20 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 72c | 15.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 68c | 15.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C or higher on May 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.