Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe39ca061f316b160f80b2603781758a26298bb38af3d3ca33213be8d76890564
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,937
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,820
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,937 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 108 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd661…2750backed No | 43c | 436.31$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.83 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 16c | 405.28$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.87 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a7…9c23backed Yes | 54c | 398.12$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.11 | 178 | 38.8%69 W · 109 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed No | 53c | 347.14$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.09 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08de…76b9backed No | 59c | 289.82$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 44c | 284.37$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.26 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38a7…d69dbacked No | 54c | 282.15$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.95 | 235 | 49.4%116 W · 119 L | -12.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 31c | 245.5$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.48 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0af2…ce86backed Yes | 52c | 221.95$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.82 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +6.5wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1250…db19backed No | 79c | 201.78$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.2 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 34c | 152.62$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.86 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 38c | 150.12$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.65 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c29…f3bbbacked Yes | 39c | 147.69$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.44 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +22%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes | 34c | 147.4$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.04 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 58c | 146.24$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.28 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1acf…d02ebacked Yes | 51c | 141.7$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.19 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b90…9fe1backed No | 77c | 137.36$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.16per pick | 61cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 35c | 135.09$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.89 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4d97…05c3backed Yes | 78c | 128.91$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.92 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 60cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf430…e6bcbacked Yes | 49c | 126.41$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.56 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked Yes | 68c | 117.34$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.34 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 54c | 115.33$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.19 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea1…d176backed No | 49c | 103.35$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.29 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…885fbacked Yes | 30c | 102.93$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.93 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85e8…9301backed Yes | 75c | 102.3$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.3 | 113 | 62.8%71 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…f822backed No | 76c | 100.67$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.51 | 194 | 30.4%59 W · 135 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7d…9e7abacked Yes | 40c | 100.39$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.89 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83e3…5652backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.05 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…ad9ebacked No | 54c | 99.98$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.99 | 160 | 46.3%74 W · 86 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3322…7dc2backed Yes | 33c | 92.58$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.39 | 152 | 36.2%55 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 31c | 90$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.26 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9337…4fc6backed Yes | 34c | 87.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.93 | 81 | 48.1%39 W · 42 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9791…a14abacked Yes | 76c | 84.72$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.49 | 194 | 61.9%120 W · 74 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed Yes | 78c | 82.03$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.05 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd0…3df2backed Yes | 28c | 78.7$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.49 | 91 | 47.3%43 W · 48 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff9b…6a02backed Yes | 46c | 78.24$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.25 | 158 | 34.2%54 W · 104 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 47c | 70$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3910…ba74backed Yes | 31c | 65.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.49 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 23c | 64.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 33c | 63.14$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.18 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93ed…35c4backed Yes | 50c | 60.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.22 | 178 | 61.2%109 W · 69 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 66c | 59.86$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.4 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 52c | 58$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.84 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 40c | 57.69$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.15 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x116d…fbf1backed Yes | 57c | 57.06$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.52 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +20.1wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 48c | 56.79$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.62 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf5b…0393backed Yes | 62c | 56.58$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.74 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 40c | 56.52$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.86 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc84…a0d2backed Yes | 34c | 56.2$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.1 | 106 | 34.9%37 W · 69 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 56c | 56.01$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7554…0b84backed Yes | 56c | 53.94$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.94 | 140 | 40.7%57 W · 83 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 61c | 51.05$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.94 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 33c | 50.56$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.88 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbff…06d2backed Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 99 | 32.3%32 W · 67 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6688…fdcebacked No | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe77d…7383backed No | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.22per pick | 45cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfe86…9b6bbacked Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd12…7f29backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 154 | 37.7%58 W · 96 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 65c | 49.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.49 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 50c | 48.38$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.16 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x635a…cccbbacked Yes | 42c | 48.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.11 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | +7.3wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 31c | 45.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 56c | 45.03$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.19 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 57c | 44.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.24 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe217…5c75backed Yes | 49c | 42.11$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.48 | 160 | 30%48 W · 112 L | -15.2wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf55f…8e92backed No | 48c | 40.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | -13.3wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…253abacked Yes | 57c | 40.72$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.51 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61b8…e749backed Yes | 53c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x375d…62c5backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 83 | 25.3%21 W · 62 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7966…b251backed No | 59c | 39.61$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.35 | 143 | 59.4%85 W · 58 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa139…5bc2backed Yes | 54c | 39.41$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.13 | 112 | 40.2%45 W · 67 L | -6.8wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 40c | 39.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 52c | 38.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.52 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked No | 53c | 37.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 47c | 37.51$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed5…7c3abacked Yes | 40c | 34.14$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.48 | 200 | 37%74 W · 126 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ad…ff75backed Yes | 48c | 32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.69 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed No | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7aea…2ab8backed Yes | 58c | 31.15$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.06 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | -7.1wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 47c | 30.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb201…2766backed Yes | 47c | 30.51$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.28 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f2c…20e0backed Yes | 65c | 30.29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +4.1wins | +0.28per pick | 59cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xebda…75a9backed Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 217 | 22.6%49 W · 168 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf6…8b41backed Yes | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.0wins | -0.20per pick | 47cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 47c | 29.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.99 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…00c3backed Yes | 38c | 27$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.74 | 250 | 42.4%106 W · 144 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f4b…0b44backed Yes | 56c | 26.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.4wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed No | 48c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 51c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf9…876ebacked Yes | 56c | 24.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.89 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked No | 57c | 23.74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f4…665ebacked No | 63c | 22.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 142 | 64.1%91 W · 51 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…71d7backed No | 66c | 22.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 333 | 73%243 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed No | 49c | 22.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -17%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 50c | 21.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3663…d13ebacked No | 50c | 20.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -3.8wins | -0.20per pick | 36cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C or higher on May 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.