MLB · resolved market
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdb5aea163df4c20272842989eab7fdee51d7f9084b9d9e42efec085e755d88cb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $131,389
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $131,351
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $131,389 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4bff…fc26backed Under | 47c | 77,816$36,285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41,530.64 | 436 | 47%205 W · 231 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e77…8c33backed Under | 46c | 40,000$18,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,600 | 283 | 50.9%144 W · 139 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 53c | 38,767$20,544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,543.97 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a26…937ebacked Over | 54c | 36,869$20,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,000 | 613 | 51.5%316 W · 297 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 54c | 18,843$10,227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,226.98 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb272…5030backed Over | 53c | 10,243$5,431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,431.48 | 362 | 46.1%167 W · 195 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 53c | 3,772$1,999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,999.38 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 53c | 3,500$1,855 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,855 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 53c | 2,409$1,282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,282.45 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2714…960fbacked Over | 54c | 2,000$1,070 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,070 | 859 | 52.6%452 W · 407 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcba5…cd88backed Over | 55c | 1,455$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 660 | 50.2%331 W · 329 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57b1…4b99backed Over | 55c | 1,097$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 175 | 46.9%82 W · 93 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cec…d241backed Under | 46c | 1,087$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$586.96 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 53c | 1,004$532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$531.96 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 54c | 808.26$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.27 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeef6…cd4cbacked Under | 46c | 533$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.82 | 556 | 53.4%297 W · 259 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 18c | 531.68$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.11 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Under | 46c | 430.78$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.62 | 403 | 41.4%167 W · 236 L | -20.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 54c | 390$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.6 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8884…3457backed Under | 46c | 342.31$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.63 | 281 | 54.4%153 W · 128 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5505…aa44backed Under | 46c | 323.77$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.77 | 515 | 45.2%233 W · 282 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…bb92backed Over | 53c | 300.3$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.14 | 586 | 52.7%309 W · 277 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 45c | 299$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.45 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Over | 53c | 290.82$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.14 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcd…724dbacked Under | 48c | 220$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.4 | 102 | 49%50 W · 52 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52a0…ec9dbacked Under | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.39 | 382 | 52.1%199 W · 183 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc730…c568backed Over | 10c | 199.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 357 | 47.6%170 W · 187 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 47c | 197.62$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.79 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec30…f1aabacked Under | 53c | 194.51$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.42 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x134d…b07bbacked Over | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9e…5a9ebacked Over | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 342 | 55.3%189 W · 153 L | +10.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 74c | 160$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.65 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Over | 54c | 153.99$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.64 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 53c | 129.49$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.83 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea6e…7c46backed Over | 55c | 127.27$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 674 | 49.4%333 W · 341 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…e63cbacked Under | 42c | 118.86$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.86 | 236 | 51.3%121 W · 115 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbd…d0dfbacked Under | 57c | 106$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.68 | 318 | 48.7%155 W · 163 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Over | 54c | 104$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.68 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Over | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e50…4b22backed Under | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Under | 45c | 95$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.25 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Over | 28c | 86.25$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 60c | 85.61$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.15 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc66f…6c80backed Under | 49c | 83.88$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.78 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.34per pick | 49cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Over | 58c | 76.91$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.61 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Over | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1,197 | 53.9%645 W · 552 L | +42.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe16…60bebacked Over | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 97 | 61.9%60 W · 37 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 76c | 72.05$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04ec…8ac9backed Under | 45c | 64.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.75 | 688 | 46.8%322 W · 366 L | +9.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 47c | 62.07$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.9 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 33c | 62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 53c | 50.72$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.92 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed Under | 79c | 48.83$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 880 | 46.4%408 W · 472 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c9e…fd82backed Under | 47c | 46.81$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.81 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 51c | 43.14$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 51c | 42.78$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.82 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…e9d7backed Under | 46c | 42.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.54 | 348 | 46.8%163 W · 185 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 66c | 34$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.51 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x409d…8f47backed Under | 46c | 33.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 110 | 50.9%56 W · 54 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f85…e91abacked Under | 46c | 32.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 111 | 48.6%54 W · 57 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb1…1002backed Under | 47c | 31.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.86 | 213 | 50.2%107 W · 106 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Over | 55c | 25.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed34…cf67backed Over | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5this page
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Kansas City RoyalsKansas City Royals won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 10.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Kansas City RoyalsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.