MLB · resolved market
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 10.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x78ca3f99b51649dbec8c243e1057e6c30319e41b74827ebf6c5beaad414b82c4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,395
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,460
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,395 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4bff…fc26backed Under | 53c | 21,313$11,296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,017.11 | 436 | 47%205 W · 231 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 47c | 6,033$2,838 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,837.6 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 47c | 5,907$2,776 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,776.19 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 47c | 4,323$2,032 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,031.81 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 47c | 1,848$868 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$868.34 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 47c | 1,537$722 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$722.39 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Over | 46c | 1,354$623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$622.84 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Under | 59c | 864.97$507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.56 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 47c | 543.47$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.56 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 54c | 499.25$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.09 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 47c | 450.36$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.77 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 46c | 443.28$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.17 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 47c | 390$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.3 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd60…396cbacked Over | 41c | 385.35$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.99 | 195 | 46.2%90 W · 105 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Over | 42c | 221.96$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.22 | 840 | 49.4%415 W · 425 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc72…cd13backed Under | 49c | 161$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.11 | 344 | 43.9%151 W · 193 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a8…6764backed Over | 43c | 146.01$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.58 | 264 | 38.3%101 W · 163 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79c7…2699backed Over | 47c | 140.53$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.05 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Over | 45c | 114.52$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.53 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeef6…cd4cbacked Under | 53c | 104.53$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.13 | 556 | 53.4%297 W · 259 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Under | 55c | 93.79$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.2 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Over | 40c | 85.83$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.22 | 295 | 47.1%139 W · 156 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 41c | 85.52$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.39 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf655…7f1abacked Over | 45c | 80$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 412 | 36.7%151 W · 261 L | -16.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 67c | 75.97$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.93 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 60c | 75$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc846…c413backed Under | 57c | 68$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.24 | 539 | 50.6%273 W · 266 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 46c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2e…7821backed Over | 47c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 738 | 49.3%364 W · 374 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 37c | 51.12$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa384…3c9fbacked Under | 55c | 46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 281 | 47.7%134 W · 147 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 57c | 42.63$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2077…8161backed Over | 41c | 38.13$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.63 | 342 | 55.3%189 W · 153 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a9…3a77backed Over | 41c | 35.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 63 | 44.4%28 W · 35 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0645…c08ebacked Over | 41c | 34.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Over | 42c | 32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe840…733cbacked Under | 54c | 31.2$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.35 | 125 | 41.6%52 W · 73 L | -13.5wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d5…53d0backed Over | 41c | 29.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x409d…8f47backed Under | 54c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.02 | 110 | 50.9%56 W · 54 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f85…e91abacked Under | 57c | 26.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 111 | 48.6%54 W · 57 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 59c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Over | 48c | 22.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a86…4eebbacked Under | 70c | 21.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.35 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7be0…ca40backed Under | 62c | 16.66$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.33 | 87 | 75.9%66 W · 21 L | +9.7wins | +0.11per pick | 65cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 10.5this page
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Kansas City RoyalsKansas City Royals won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Kansas City RoyalsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.