TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Red Wings vs. Panthers

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Panthersof Red Wings, Panthers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,692,898
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,746,824

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,692,898 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 709 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1925…4654backed Panthers40c324,229$129,957 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194,271.7611644.8%52 W · 64 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc807…c12bbacked Red Wings59c225,000$132,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132,749.816352.4%33 W · 30 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x03e8…1697backed Red Wings60c193,220$116,682 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116,682.3967051%342 W · 328 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa710…23c4backed Red Wings60c188,609$113,165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113,165.215054.7%82 W · 68 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-0.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb45a…192cbacked Panthers38c112,441$42,728 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69,713.4822443.8%98 W · 126 L-5.3wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d6e…5cfdbacked Red Wings60c90,000$54,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54,000650%3 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa07…2125backed Panthers39c90,000$35,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54,949.971,07049.9%534 W · 536 L+22.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Red Wings60c78,268$46,870 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46,870.391,43450.8%728 W · 706 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc257…358ebacked Red Wings60c50,000$30,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30,00048545.4%220 W · 265 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Red Wings61c43,584$26,545 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26,545.0740351.9%209 W · 194 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x29b1…f737backed Panthers44c40,804$17,954 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,850.3428447.9%136 W · 148 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Panthers40c38,706$15,620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,085.9851550.7%261 W · 254 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc6b1…78fdbacked Panthers39c34,523$13,564 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,959.035639.3%22 W · 34 L-4.1wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-12.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x95de…c9b2backed Panthers38c30,556$11,758 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,797.283243.8%14 W · 18 L-2.4wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-15.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Panthers39c30,218$11,657 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,560.8461950.1%310 W · 309 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Panthers39c25,087$9,679 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,407.32,66451.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Red Wings62c25,018$15,495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,495.3718452.7%97 W · 87 L-0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Red Wings59c24,169$14,260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,259.6540356.3%227 W · 176 L+5.3wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21d4…84bdbacked Panthers43c22,047$9,480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,566.514252.4%22 W · 20 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39d3…9ef0backed Panthers40c21,293$8,428 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,865.0918641.9%78 W · 108 L-8.5wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-11.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa07d…9871backed Red Wings5c20,500$924 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$923.5432451.2%166 W · 158 L+18.3wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+6.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9e2f…ec47backed Red Wings59c18,000$10,620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,6204546.7%21 W · 24 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Panthers40c17,630$7,002 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,628.231,55551.4%800 W · 755 L+12.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc974…b33bbacked Panthers39c12,516$4,838 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,677.6510146.5%47 W · 54 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Red Wings62c12,097$7,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,50018853.2%100 W · 88 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid0%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xef23…5b60backed Panthers41c11,533$4,728 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,804.3164242.2%271 W · 371 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee0b…e6d4backed Panthers39c11,480$4,477 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,002.81435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-19.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8bb6…cb97backed Panthers39c11,470$4,473 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,996.75350.9%27 W · 26 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-0.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeccc…6962backed Panthers40c10,320$4,128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,191.993100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+100%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd267…9dc6backed Panthers39c9,440$3,682 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,758.357659.2%45 W · 31 L+7.9wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+29.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8f8c…e275backed Red Wings58c9,402$5,462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,461.881050%5 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb43e…78bfbacked Red Wings61c9,283$5,658 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,658.251050%5 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-8.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Red Wings59c9,000$5,310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,31026058.8%153 W · 107 L+17.7wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+15%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xaf8a…433dbacked Panthers43c8,719$3,720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,999.17683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.1wins+0.35per pick48cpaid+71.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x42b5…b5b6backed Red Wings52c8,373$4,369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,369.321,37749.1%676 W · 701 L+39.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Red Wings61c8,044$4,946 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,945.6537754.4%205 W · 172 L+5.9wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xca5e…4af1backed Panthers43c7,772$3,342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,430.041250%6 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Red Wings60c7,652$4,594 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,594.3733450.9%170 W · 164 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Panthers42c7,581$3,155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,425.191,89152.4%991 W · 900 L+36.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcec1…9c0cbacked Panthers38c7,099$2,698 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,401.3638551.4%198 W · 187 L+16.7wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x99e4…e4c4backed Panthers44c6,842$2,988 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,854.0210938.5%42 W · 67 L-9.2wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-20.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc3e7…68d2backed Panthers43c6,170$2,653 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,516.771533.3%5 W · 10 L-2.1wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-31.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x559b…4959backed Panthers42c5,800$2,436 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,3641384.6%11 W · 2 L+3.8wins+0.29per pick55cpaid+56.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xc94a…9401backed Panthers43c5,774$2,483 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,291.1814553.1%77 W · 68 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x412f…30fabacked Panthers38c5,750$2,185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,565.247737.7%29 W · 48 L-4.5wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-22.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe7a2…ae70backed Panthers41c5,677$2,328 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,349.4112047.5%57 W · 63 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1467…4372backed Panthers41c5,595$2,294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,301.1232151.7%166 W · 155 L-1.5wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c7b…9dcabacked Panthers42c5,579$2,343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,235.61862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.18per pick45cpaid+38.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1bc8…2f68backed Panthers39c5,446$2,124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,322.153333.3%11 W · 22 L-3.4wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-26%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Red Wings60c5,290$3,174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,17485250.2%428 W · 424 L-26.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8688…9d8cbacked Panthers38c5,263$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,263.162748.1%13 W · 14 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid+4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd4da…3175backed Panthers38c5,060$1,923 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,137.228251.8%146 W · 136 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe9f5…3e7abacked Panthers38c5,060$1,923 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,137.26656.1%37 W · 29 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6551…e043backed Red Wings61c5,000$3,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,0501747.1%8 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-4.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Panthers38c4,991$1,897 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,094.6859450.8%302 W · 292 L+2.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3625…1187backed Panthers52c4,262$2,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,062.148946.1%41 W · 48 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb51…082dbacked Red Wings61c4,012$2,447 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,447.519759.4%117 W · 80 L+10.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+5.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc463…9a2fbacked Panthers43c4,000$1,707 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,293.3326750.2%134 W · 133 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b49…0397backed Panthers41c4,000$1,660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,339.9920450%102 W · 102 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Panthers44c3,854$1,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,153.633,70450.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L+105.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5aa4…16e3backed Panthers43c3,691$1,587 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,103.68862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.15per pick47cpaid+33.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb9fb…8feebacked Red Wings60c3,586$2,143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,143.0619050.5%96 W · 94 L-0.4wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa196…5b78backed Red Wings58c3,333$1,933 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,933.121330.8%4 W · 9 L-2.6wins-0.20per pick50cpaid-42.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x78e5…38e7backed Red Wings1c3,309$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401711.8%2 W · 15 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick15cpaid-39.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed Panthers59c3,095$1,815 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,280.4233234.3%114 W · 218 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-24.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Red Wings60c3,000$1,785 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,7852,31446.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L-7.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9870…b9d3backed Red Wings59c3,000$1,770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,77031550.8%160 W · 155 L-11.6wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x58b6…c324backed Panthers41c3,000$1,230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,7703658.3%21 W · 15 L+3.2wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+12.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2461…f240backed Red Wings12c3,000$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4658…4131backed Panthers38c2,793$1,062 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,731.9310663.2%67 W · 39 L+7.7wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+13.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6447…8075backed Panthers44c2,692$1,184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,507.371735.3%6 W · 11 L-2.6wins-0.15per pick50cpaid-36.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4285…cfb5backed Red Wings61c2,557$1,560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5606758.2%39 W · 28 L+0.1wins0.00per pick58cpaid+3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed Panthers55c2,541$1,399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,142.0713850.7%70 W · 68 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-13.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0780…b0e9backed Panthers44c2,446$1,071 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,375.012100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+86.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Panthers40c2,355$936 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,418.972,89451.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0277…e121backed Red Wings58c2,347$1,361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,361.16366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+27.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5cb…8f9ebacked Panthers43c2,347$1,009 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,337.68560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+16%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2586…c893backed Panthers43c2,300$989 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,31183652.8%441 W · 395 L+28.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6bb3…758ebacked Panthers43c2,270$976 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,294.417247.7%82 W · 90 L-6.4wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-8.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b1a…5abfbacked Panthers43c2,250$968 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,282.554045%18 W · 22 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x29f5…fb4abacked Panthers54c2,223$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,023.241353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe06…d5d5backed Panthers46c2,205$1,023 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,181.963435.3%12 W · 22 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-19%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x95b7…d633backed Panthers42c2,200$924 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,275.8726154%141 W · 120 L+7.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+11.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Panthers40c2,096$838 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,257.9576950.3%387 W · 382 L+1.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x568e…6980backed Panthers41c2,073$854 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,219.49366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick43cpaid+51.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x299f…2140backed Red Wings60c2,065$1,239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,238.8438849.5%192 W · 196 L+0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Red Wings51c2,050$1,045 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,044.792,11242.9%907 W · 1,205 L-10.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-9.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x44c8…a9ffbacked Panthers46c2,033$935 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,098.05450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Red Wings59c2,000$1,180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,18022747.6%108 W · 119 L-7.0wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7a46…2294backed Red Wings56c2,000$1,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,120683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.31per pick52cpaid+62.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdaef…54e9backed Red Wings59c2,000$1,180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,18011153.2%59 W · 52 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x091e…84bcbacked Red Wings58c2,000$1,160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,16020%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x039c…b202backed Panthers39c1,920$749 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,171.24738.3%18 W · 29 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x021a…d3aebacked Panthers45c1,903$858 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,045.18425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-44.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Panthers43c1,899$812 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,087.3466552%346 W · 319 L+8.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c2d…6443backed Panthers39c1,802$703 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,099.35757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.16per pick41cpaid+33.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x01c9…4386backed Panthers41c1,766$718 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,048.436948%177 W · 192 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x91d1…288ebacked Panthers43c1,757$756 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,001.49540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf6ee…0e41backed Panthers43c1,700$733 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$966.916931.9%22 W · 47 L-8.3wins-0.12per pick44cpaid-25.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed Panthers42c1,696$720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$976.4322946.3%106 W · 123 L-9.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-11.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.