Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdc6ae20b7f34fa08a4dbf2b6f7da3b9fe0ba42adb7ee5eecee38ccd900eeb77d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $68,251
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $72,028
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $68,251 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 147 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdadb…1870backed No | 25c | 2,395$606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$606.05 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 14c | 2,255$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,931.03 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 33c | 1,817$597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$597.03 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2c…ecdcbacked Yes | 42c | 1,385$588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$797.15 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked No | 25c | 1,365$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.76 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 7c | 1,255$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.28 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0e4…175fbacked Yes | 77c | 1,200$924 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 78c | 1,198$930 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.88 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked No | 13c | 1,005$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.08 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed No | 5c | 999.74$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.64 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 70c | 776.58$541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540.73 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 53c | 776.16$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.2 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 53c | 704.71$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.39 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b9…1e0ebacked Yes | 39c | 691.87$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.17 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 47c | 636.61$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.36 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf742…400ebacked No | 67c | 589.95$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.43 | 116 | 14.7%17 W · 99 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde72…b5b1backed No | 7c | 549.98$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.98 | 211 | 31.8%67 W · 144 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3621…3c9fbacked Yes | 44c | 523.57$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.1 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -27%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 60c | 521.61$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.09 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0008…e37bbacked Yes | 69c | 495.79$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.5 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 36c | 474.75$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.6 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc427…efdfbacked No | 20c | 452.67$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.44 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 14c | 435.68$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.1 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…4357backed No | 10c | 433.14$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.94 | 208 | 32.7%68 W · 140 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 31c | 432.81$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.15 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…78d8backed Yes | 37c | 413.63$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.63 | 249 | 42.6%106 W · 143 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80e1…47a8backed No | 77c | 389.89$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.97 | 242 | 62.4%151 W · 91 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 41c | 384$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.26 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 8c | 382.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.55 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…db74backed Yes | 30c | 362.38$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.17 | 260 | 25%65 W · 195 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e71…afe6backed Yes | 12c | 356.59$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.51 | 272 | 26.5%72 W · 200 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed No | 11c | 338.22$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.77 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 15c | 302.9$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.9 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b63…c6adbacked Yes | 21c | 301.55$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.95 | 55 | 29.1%16 W · 39 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8a…94cbbacked No | 21c | 299.99$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.33 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | -5.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed No | 7c | 288.13$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed No | 40c | 284.09$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.04 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 74c | 281.08$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.74 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa687…53a5backed Yes | 42c | 270.55$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.93 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf8…31bcbacked Yes | 66c | 264.68$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.15 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 41c | 256.16$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.7 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62fc…d8ccbacked Yes | 52c | 255.48$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.6 | 120 | 50%60 W · 60 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b37…3a72backed No | 8c | 246$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 51c | 242.32$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.64 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 27c | 225.34$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.5 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0e5…2dc4backed No | 55c | 220.95$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.89 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x118b…38c8backed Yes | 34c | 220.52$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.77 | 85 | 42.4%36 W · 49 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2bdd…aaa8backed Yes | 62c | 217.94$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.37 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 70c | 200$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.84 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5546…c8cebacked No | 16c | 199.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 98 | 19.4%19 W · 79 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 64c | 196.95$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.05 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd478…eb6ebacked Yes | 80c | 187.97$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.87 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36ef…3c3abacked No | 10c | 185.62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.27 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 24c | 184.21$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.24 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 69c | 173$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.54 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fa…cafebacked Yes | 34c | 169.63$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.53 | 80 | 27.5%22 W · 58 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 36c | 168.68$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.35 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb544…cd42backed Yes | 59c | 157.29$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.11 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e70…bb75backed Yes | 41c | 155.59$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.26 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +19%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 49c | 151.76$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.79 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x800d…e1d0backed Yes | 46c | 140.93$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.43 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +3.5wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x116d…fbf1backed No | 64c | 136.13$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.64 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +20.1wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 58c | 135.03$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.28 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked No | 26c | 133.66$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.07 | 165 | 32.1%53 W · 112 L | -9.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71ec…e48cbacked Yes | 39c | 132.03$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.05 | 99 | 21.2%21 W · 78 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x983e…6fdebacked Yes | 71c | 130.47$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.47 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 44c | 126.54$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.14 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x541e…b57abacked Yes | 69c | 122.46$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.42 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 77c | 120.12$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.59 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d02…8c5dbacked Yes | 42c | 117.75$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.43 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked No | 54c | 115.65$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.26 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6bd…2c9dbacked Yes | 23c | 110.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.33 | 213 | 40.8%87 W · 126 L | +23.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +34%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x165d…21eabacked Yes | 76c | 110$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.96 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2662…40b7backed No | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.20per pick | 65cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3be7…ad70backed No | 21c | 102$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 134 | 11.9%16 W · 118 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 14c | 101.46$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.24 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x417d…08f7backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.56 | 40 | 12.5%5 W · 35 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8847…262dbacked No | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 252 | 30.6%77 W · 175 L | +21.0wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xba88…a08ebacked No | 72c | 99.99$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.84 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…1b55backed Yes | 29c | 99.13$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.85 | 269 | 33.1%89 W · 180 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde67…c144backed No | 33c | 95.73$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.91 | 148 | 35.8%53 W · 95 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5938…7788backed No | 42c | 94.98$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.26 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa811…e28ebacked Yes | 42c | 92.98$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.01 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b61…bf25backed Yes | 38c | 90.39$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.89 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 20c | 89.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.17 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked Yes | 28c | 88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.38 | 375 | 32.8%123 W · 252 L | +36.4wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x335f…51c4backed Yes | 28c | 87.93$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.31 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ec…5946backed Yes | 28c | 87.93$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.31 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd05f…9009backed Yes | 28c | 87.03$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.66 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cba…e9dbbacked Yes | 41c | 85.65$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.51 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55ca…498fbacked Yes | 21c | 85.44$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.58 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +7.0wins | +0.21per pick | 36cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0f40…2cfabacked No | 79c | 83.02$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.75 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 68cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 62c | 78.29$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.88 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78c2…53adbacked Yes | 29c | 76.34$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.58 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 70c | 74.74$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.36 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 41c | 65.42$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.58 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 57c | 63.07$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.09 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf834…8a5fbacked Yes | 30c | 62.59$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.63 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf255…a6e8backed Yes | 30c | 61.72$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 82 | 69.5%57 W · 25 L | +8.7wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3a87…911fbacked Yes | 28c | 60.19$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.37 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | +6.8wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C or below on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C or higher on July 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.