Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc97fc0b391c7998b97ddaa1a2f929a8b8b25cf311fae9a24dc3ed6070d704652
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,025
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,609
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,025 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 5c | 866.76$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.09 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 4c | 639.62$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.59 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 5c | 599.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 7c | 505.84$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.03 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 5c | 501.48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.02 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 15c | 500$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.89 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 6c | 472.54$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.73 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37e6…794ebacked Yes | 11c | 450.2$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 47 | 6.4%3 W · 44 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -76.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0008…e37bbacked No | 80c | 345.1$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.02 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x438a…61c4backed Yes | 7c | 332.4$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.03 | 231 | 43.3%100 W · 131 L | +19.0wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 4c | 320.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c7…d291backed Yes | 30c | 319.98$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.99 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 20c | 292.77$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.33 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 7c | 217.26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 79c | 208.21$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.69 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe037…8a91backed Yes | 5c | 206.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 178 | 41.6%74 W · 104 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4309…7456backed Yes | 7c | 200$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 161 | 26.1%42 W · 119 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 9c | 151.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked Yes | 36c | 149.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 7c | 148.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xce67…5c3abacked Yes | 10c | 121.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 76 | 23.7%18 W · 58 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 14c | 111.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.24 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfc40…c5bbbacked Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf05…3d5bbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 75 | 26.7%20 W · 55 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 69c | 97.13$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.11 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1df8…9cf0backed Yes | 26c | 91$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.66 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 69c | 90$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.56 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 34c | 76.94$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.92 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91d5…824ebacked Yes | 27c | 75.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed Yes | 34c | 73.96$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.15 | 269 | 48.3%130 W · 139 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0786…df1dbacked No | 76c | 73.7$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.98 | 230 | 60.9%140 W · 90 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 37c | 61.25$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 31c | 50.16$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc1…90cfbacked Yes | 37c | 49.69$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.31 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | -5.0wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -22%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 71c | 49.05$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.26 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 32c | 44.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc20…c5dbbacked Yes | 34c | 40.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 31c | 38.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 65c | 33.68$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed Yes | 34c | 30.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 301 | 36.9%111 W · 190 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa087…91f7backed Yes | 37c | 29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 176 | 35.2%62 W · 114 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ceb…2162backed No | 70c | 26.27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.81 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.58 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55f1…d323backed No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 74cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…008fbacked No | 73c | 25.28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd55b…9469backed No | 70c | 21.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.54 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 73c | 21.62$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.84 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 297 | 69.4%206 W · 91 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x734b…2a2cbacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 69c | 19.97$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.11 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 78c | 19.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.31 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06f2…8798backed No | 73c | 19.62$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 165 | 66.1%109 W · 56 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b73…174ebacked No | 74c | 19.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 172 | 47.7%82 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ab…a228backed No | 74c | 15.62$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 52 | 67.3%35 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C or below on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C or higher on July 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.