Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe90f24632914da55cf59fa2a4d2291681329710e6f286f93741de33f08439617
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,786
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,175
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,786 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 120 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x37e6…794ebacked Yes | 2c | 2,945$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 47 | 6.4%3 W · 44 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -76.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 17c | 2,327$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.78 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,875$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.75 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c9…1ec6backed Yes | 1c | 1,647$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 9c | 1,100$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.79 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcebc…833bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,059$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa755…b5ddbacked Yes | 28c | 899.67$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.61 | 107 | 31.8%34 W · 73 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 75c | 771.97$578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.18 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 14c | 760.16$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.21 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 14c | 748.57$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.55 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 73c | 697.78$506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.74 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 77c | 677.44$522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.02 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 4c | 600$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 79c | 543$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.31 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 72c | 507.61$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.66 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 15c | 500$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4309…7456backed Yes | 13c | 461.07$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.71 | 161 | 26.1%42 W · 119 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…78d8backed Yes | 30c | 402.39$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.86 | 249 | 42.6%106 W · 143 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8847…262dbacked Yes | 3c | 399.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 252 | 30.6%77 W · 175 L | +21.0wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c7…d291backed No | 80c | 399.97$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.99 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 9c | 383.12$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.17 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 11c | 364.6$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.21 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 5c | 335.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 11c | 317.7$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.62 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 21c | 300$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 72c | 282.69$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.54 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 76c | 263$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.34 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 22c | 260.52$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.54 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62fc…d8ccbacked Yes | 31c | 252.42$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.38 | 120 | 50%60 W · 60 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 78c | 248.31$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.55 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 14c | 242.47$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.48 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 63c | 242.32$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.95 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 24c | 232.06$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.23 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd571…9a4ebacked Yes | 24c | 222.74$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 73c | 211$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.03 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bd…eab2backed Yes | 26c | 201$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.92 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4832…bb63backed Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 7c | 199.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…4357backed No | 76c | 199.98$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.2 | 208 | 32.7%68 W · 140 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x567a…b24cbacked Yes | 9c | 199.6$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 129 | 27.1%35 W · 94 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd478…eb6ebacked Yes | 14c | 176.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.81 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked No | 62c | 160.89$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.72 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 27c | 159.16$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.12 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71ec…e48cbacked Yes | 24c | 152.2$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.9 | 99 | 21.2%21 W · 78 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ae…428cbacked Yes | 39c | 150$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 31c | 148.9$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.21 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 72c | 147.52$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.35 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 17c | 147.16$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.45 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 18c | 136.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.93 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb544…cd42backed Yes | 32c | 135.11$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.09 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 31c | 123.1$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.9 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e71…afe6backed Yes | 28c | 121.01$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.08 | 272 | 26.5%72 W · 200 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x62ef…f1dcbacked Yes | 39c | 115.71$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.04 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -6.3wins | -0.20per pick | 41cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 70c | 115.54$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.97 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 17c | 111.93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 64c | 110$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.23 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…db74backed Yes | 27c | 110$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.64 | 260 | 25%65 W · 195 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 14c | 108.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 15c | 105.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 11c | 105.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fa…cafebacked Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.62 | 80 | 27.5%22 W · 58 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe037…8a91backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.25 | 178 | 41.6%74 W · 104 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0732…4098backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc40…c5bbbacked Yes | 24c | 99.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.29 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x417d…08f7backed Yes | 49c | 99.08$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.18 | 40 | 12.5%5 W · 35 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 79c | 98.23$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.41 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 72c | 86.31$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.08 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ca2…1d74backed Yes | 15c | 85.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Yes | 14c | 84.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 165 | 32.1%53 W · 112 L | -9.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3be7…ad70backed Yes | 18c | 84.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 134 | 11.9%16 W · 118 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 74c | 80.57$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.66 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 73c | 80$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ceb…2162backed Yes | 44c | 78.36$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.46 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x118b…38c8backed Yes | 21c | 76.26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.03 | 85 | 42.4%36 W · 49 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2684…8beebacked Yes | 14c | 74.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb762…bbfebacked Yes | 18c | 72.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e4…ea77backed Yes | 43c | 70$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.07 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x18f2…9ff6backed No | 74c | 67.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 36c | 64.4$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.39 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7fc…69a1backed Yes | 24c | 63.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +3.3wins | +0.14per pick | 34cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x762a…0322backed Yes | 21c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 58 | 24.1%14 W · 44 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29bd…b52cbacked Yes | 45c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.96 | 76 | 23.7%18 W · 58 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cba…e9dbbacked Yes | 27c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde67…c144backed Yes | 31c | 55.61$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 148 | 35.8%53 W · 95 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 20c | 53.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8862…54dfbacked Yes | 30c | 53.42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -3.3wins | -0.28per pick | 36cpaid | -79%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x23bb…7a45backed Yes | 39c | 51.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5673…32babacked Yes | 24c | 51.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +4.9wins | +0.14per pick | 34cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 73c | 51$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97c5…018bbacked Yes | 40c | 50.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 46 | 65.2%30 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9db…2ac6backed Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.05 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.15 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b9…1e0ebacked Yes | 41c | 48.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa35…bda4backed Yes | 41c | 48.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1298…e850backed Yes | 39c | 46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -6.0wins | -0.21per pick | 42cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc97e…09abbacked No | 66c | 45.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 161 | 61.5%99 W · 62 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f5d…e60abacked Yes | 28c | 44.82$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d88…6adebacked Yes | 27c | 40.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C or below on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C or higher on July 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.