Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe68ff24367db2e795f1af925bfbcaf16b46fb5c9bbaca71f15749fdd861870d7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,854
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,337
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,854 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 101 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 1c | 1,563$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.81 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa755…b5ddbacked Yes | 14c | 1,300$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.79 | 107 | 31.8%34 W · 73 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 24c | 1,219$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.82 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0008…e37bbacked No | 74c | 844.73$623 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.17 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 6c | 647.38$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.08 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 3c | 499.44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.24 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc008…6adfbacked Yes | 13c | 480.66$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.43 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +4.5wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed Yes | 7c | 448.88$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.95 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37e6…794ebacked Yes | 28c | 396.22$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.55 | 47 | 6.4%3 W · 44 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -76.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e86…4c0fbacked Yes | 29c | 394.58$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.49 | 111 | 27%30 W · 81 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 24c | 345.96$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.7 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 20c | 333.44$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.72 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62ef…f1dcbacked Yes | 30c | 314.82$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.54 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -6.3wins | -0.20per pick | 41cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 29c | 303.25$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.98 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 29c | 300$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 72c | 295.22$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.77 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 29c | 266$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.14 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4309…7456backed Yes | 21c | 258.08$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.45 | 161 | 26.1%42 W · 119 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 67c | 247.11$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.69 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0732…4098backed Yes | 28c | 245$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.75 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 75c | 230$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.28 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fa…cafebacked Yes | 23c | 200$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.71 | 80 | 27.5%22 W · 58 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe037…8a91backed Yes | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 178 | 41.6%74 W · 104 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 26c | 197.89$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.82 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 66c | 178.5$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.84 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 9c | 159.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc40…c5bbbacked Yes | 37c | 158$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.24 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a67…5d96backed No | 66c | 151.1$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.1 | 158 | 41.8%66 W · 92 L | -8.8wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked Yes | 15c | 149.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x762a…0322backed Yes | 13c | 140$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 58 | 24.1%14 W · 44 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 73c | 137.84$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.83 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 69c | 137.03$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.05 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 16c | 134.11$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.85 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29bd…b52cbacked Yes | 21c | 128$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.03 | 76 | 23.7%18 W · 58 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30a2…deacbacked No | 73c | 127.95$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.55 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd571…9a4ebacked Yes | 35c | 121.26$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.43 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 16c | 121.09$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 31c | 120.67$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.53 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 34c | 110.36$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.48 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1250…4444backed No | 79c | 100.17$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.65 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bd…eab2backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 70c | 98.2$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.1 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 31c | 97.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb9db…2ac6backed Yes | 24c | 95.75$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.53 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8862…54dfbacked Yes | 32c | 93.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -3.3wins | -0.28per pick | 36cpaid | -79%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 12c | 91.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6104…f040backed Yes | 20c | 90$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 65c | 83.24$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.31 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 73c | 81.3$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.03 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 21c | 79.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.36 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3a…1730backed No | 73c | 72.6$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 43cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 64c | 70.55$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.1 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa35…bda4backed Yes | 31c | 63.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.81 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 75c | 63.56$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.77 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe035…52d4backed Yes | 39c | 62$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 27c | 61.86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.47 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cba…e9dbbacked Yes | 36c | 54.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 25c | 52.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e4…ea77backed Yes | 30c | 50.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69f4…c6eebacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 108 | 47.2%51 W · 57 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.83 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb544…cd42backed Yes | 39c | 49.77$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.21 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 65c | 49.05$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.35 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3559…b31bbacked Yes | 28c | 48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed Yes | 29c | 47.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 71c | 46.76$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.43 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed No | 75c | 43.69$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed Yes | 38c | 43.49$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.52 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa087…91f7backed Yes | 25c | 41.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 176 | 35.2%62 W · 114 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb61b…512ebacked No | 74c | 40.76$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.76 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36f7…4a5abacked Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 58 | 29.3%17 W · 41 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496d…a2f2backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 89 | 27%24 W · 65 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +164.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed Yes | 38c | 39.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 244 | 51.2%125 W · 119 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x417d…08f7backed Yes | 26c | 39.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 40 | 12.5%5 W · 35 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 74c | 38.88$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 60c | 38.83$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.53 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 38c | 38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0751…073abacked No | 62c | 38$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.44 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e4…4753backed Yes | 40c | 37.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 57cpaid | +41%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcbf9…dcdebacked No | 63c | 36.29$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.43 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.27per pick | 50cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5538…b9b6backed Yes | 32c | 33.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 69c | 32.78$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.28 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fa…9611backed No | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 155 | 55.5%86 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 61c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 71c | 32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3fb…7b3dbacked Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 75c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.58 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ceb…2162backed Yes | 39c | 28.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 78c | 26.58$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.93 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x841b…a2a7backed No | 62c | 24.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.23 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecfd…dd23backed No | 63c | 23.76$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.79 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed No | 71c | 21.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 104 | 32.7%34 W · 70 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8c…f777backed No | 62c | 19.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6986…5585backed No | 59c | 17.95$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ab…a228backed No | 73c | 17.95$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.78 | 52 | 67.3%35 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e3e…c58bbacked No | 80c | 14.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.87 | 50 | 64%32 W · 18 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 70cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C or below on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C or higher on July 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.