Tennis · resolved market
BNP Paribas Open: Adam Walton vs Learner Tien
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdc79058fd57c18ac5d8fb1de4b53fe904fbb178a164bc4f353664d1648ef4213
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Learner Tienof Adam Walton, Learner Tien
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $185,900
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $185,900 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9f13…e0fdbacked Adam Walton | 16c | 23,878$3,821 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,820.51 | 761 | 40.6%309 W · 452 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9976…67dabacked Adam Walton | 17c | 10,342$1,758 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,758.07 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Adam Walton | 17c | 7,500$1,275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,275 | 305 | 42.6%130 W · 175 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x969b…db70backed Adam Walton | 0c | 5,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 42 | 0%0 W · 42 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Adam Walton | 6c | 4,983$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.46 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4699…5051backed Adam Walton | 2c | 4,306$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.52 | 973 | 7.9%77 W · 896 L | -20.2wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Adam Walton | 10c | 2,367$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.8 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Adam Walton | 11c | 1,570$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Adam Walton | 18c | 1,501$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.41 | 179 | 33%59 W · 120 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9db1…d726backed Adam Walton | 7c | 1,335$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 118 | 32.2%38 W · 80 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Adam Walton | 8c | 1,125$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.19 | 1,410 | 38.4%542 W · 868 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9de4…7f2ebacked Adam Walton | 20c | 1,100$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.92 | 166 | 48.8%81 W · 85 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb31…7b95backed Adam Walton | 13c | 857.09$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.02 | 680 | 26.2%178 W · 502 L | -24.5wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7693…ba75backed Adam Walton | 17c | 846.62$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.93 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Adam Walton | 16c | 772.55$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.71 | 1,658 | 49.9%828 W · 830 L | +7.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf026…8df7backed Adam Walton | 22c | 648$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.79 | 373 | 42.6%159 W · 214 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb691…b39dbacked Adam Walton | 12c | 617.97$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.99 | 439 | 51.9%228 W · 211 L | +17.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x545d…c122backed Adam Walton | 18c | 616.67$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 460 | 30.4%140 W · 320 L | -18.7wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbe…4d6abacked Adam Walton | 19c | 600$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | +4.1wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a9…e22ebacked Adam Walton | 17c | 562.51$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.63 | 1,284 | 39.2%503 W · 781 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Adam Walton | 20c | 552$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.32 | 1,008 | 46%464 W · 544 L | -19.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed Adam Walton | 16c | 507.4$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.28 | 4,288 | 40.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L | -139.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe70d…dd35backed Learner Tien | 79c | 506.24$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.24 | 29 | 75.9%22 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Adam Walton | 17c | 500$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 265 | 41.9%111 W · 154 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Adam Walton | 17c | 499$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.83 | 1,265 | 29.2%370 W · 895 L | -13.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6aaa…ddfdbacked Adam Walton | 12c | 494.12$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 273 | 46.5%127 W · 146 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Adam Walton | 16c | 445.76$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.8 | 1,973 | 46.3%914 W · 1,059 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Adam Walton | 5c | 425.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.19 | 1,379 | 16.4%226 W · 1,153 L | -108.5wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4f25…442cbacked Adam Walton | 7c | 421.41$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.64 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | -6.1wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Adam Walton | 6c | 396$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.64 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Adam Walton | 15c | 348.2$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.12 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Adam Walton | 15c | 318.32$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.61 | 1,923 | 55.4%1,066 W · 857 L | -44.9wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x623c…122fbacked Adam Walton | 18c | 278.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.13 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Adam Walton | 15c | 269.09$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.78 | 6,786 | 48.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L | +56.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Adam Walton | 16c | 234.02$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.44 | 1,809 | 43.8%793 W · 1,016 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Adam Walton | 15c | 233.33$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 678 | 36%244 W · 434 L | +8.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ee9…1362backed Adam Walton | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 725 | 42.6%309 W · 416 L | -20.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9edc…b088backed Adam Walton | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 284 | 24.3%69 W · 215 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Adam Walton | 16c | 149.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 3,871 | 35%1,353 W · 2,518 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Adam Walton | 12c | 132.73$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -71%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Adam Walton | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 321 | 47%151 W · 170 L | +12.2wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Adam Walton | 20c | 111.21$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Adam Walton | 17c | 91.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 3,270 | 13.8%450 W · 2,820 L | -549.1wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Adam Walton | 18c | 83.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Adam Walton | 17c | 82.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd88a…1eefbacked Adam Walton | 18c | 70$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 544 | 34.2%186 W · 358 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c10…4e76backed Adam Walton | 19c | 68.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 333 | 26.4%88 W · 245 L | -14.1wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73c4…a92dbacked Adam Walton | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fc6…7affbacked Adam Walton | 21c | 52.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfacd…d470backed Learner Tien | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 210 | 72.4%152 W · 58 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x191a…2ea6backed Learner Tien | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 65cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd77…ef21backed Learner Tien | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 652 | 64.1%418 W · 234 L | +21.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- BNP Paribas Open: Adam Walton vs Learner Tienthis page
- Set 1 Winner: Walton vs TienTien won
- Set Handicap: Tien (-1.5) vs Walton (+1.5)Tien won
- Walton vs. Tien: Match O/U 22.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.