Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on July 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdc8b56c9bbd0a97cd2c73ae043d26fcbacdfaa4b10de8a34804c000686db6c23
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,018
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,030
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,018 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 73c | 2,875$2,102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,101.69 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 32c | 1,752$565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,187.61 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 72c | 1,243$891 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$890.91 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 25c | 1,035$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$778.3 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 20c | 950$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$760 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 23c | 476.49$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.44 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 69c | 438.29$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.55 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 28c | 415.74$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.99 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 27c | 310$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.3 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 71c | 272.43$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.94 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…fc14backed Yes | 35c | 250$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.5 | 203 | 47.8%97 W · 106 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26cb…a394backed Yes | 35c | 250$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.5 | 124 | 37.1%46 W · 78 L | -17.5wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 34c | 250$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 40c | 233.88$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.83 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 32c | 191.01$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.57 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 20c | 163.33$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.95 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 75c | 162$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.5 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 29c | 155.17$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.17 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 36c | 145.91$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.93 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1160…894abacked Yes | 28c | 140$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.45 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 32cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 33c | 125.32$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.36 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 69c | 120$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 69c | 120$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 20c | 120$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa09d…af80backed Yes | 22c | 119.42$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.7 | 211 | 50.7%107 W · 104 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 73c | 103.9$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.07 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 46c | 101.27$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.84 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x62d3…e694backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 161 | 35.4%57 W · 104 L | -12.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e16…7f14backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 220 | 64.5%142 W · 78 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked Yes | 24c | 99.3$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.39 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…5866backed Yes | 35c | 98.33$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.91 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 77c | 96$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.56 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 29c | 93.27$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.54 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b9e…0948backed Yes | 14c | 92.39$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.23 | 108 | 45.4%49 W · 59 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 16c | 90$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6e…2313backed Yes | 35c | 84$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.6 | 262 | 56.5%148 W · 114 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 12c | 81.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 70c | 81.25$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.89 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 67c | 70.4$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.25 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 29c | 65.72$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.78 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 30c | 60.56$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.19 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37bd…ed2abacked Yes | 29c | 60$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.6 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 23c | 57.65$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.43 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 41c | 56.54$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.46 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea21…f753backed Yes | 70c | 55.02$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.56 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | +18.8wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 26c | 55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.7 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 71c | 50.25$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.52 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 71c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.35 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed Yes | 31c | 48.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.39 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf48b…136fbacked No | 71c | 48.12$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.08 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 75cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5938…7788backed Yes | 76c | 47.53$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.19 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 73c | 46.35$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.65 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed Yes | 33c | 44.63$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.9 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4c8…3730backed Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.4 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 69c | 39.57$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…50c3backed Yes | 29c | 37.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.53 | 294 | 43.5%128 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57a2…e032backed Yes | 36c | 35.09$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9551…ca44backed No | 68c | 33.9$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.05 | 159 | 50.3%80 W · 79 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 68c | 32.27$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.95 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 35c | 30.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.86 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 47c | 25.54$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.52 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf913…9e87backed No | 63c | 21.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 90 | 66.7%60 W · 30 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42aa…7d26backed No | 65c | 20.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | -8.4wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 68c | 20.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 317 | 66.9%212 W · 105 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb58…ccd0backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 160 | 65.6%105 W · 55 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0a…65abbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 338 | 76.6%259 W · 79 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 78cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63a1…0212backed No | 64c | 17.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 252 | 58.7%148 W · 104 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…a32abacked Yes | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.4 | 216 | 33.8%73 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 77c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…f41bbacked No | 72c | 14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 286 | 60.8%174 W · 112 L | -15.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on July 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on July 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.