MLB · resolved market
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdc8eb97da6a852e3b52f3845f1c34efdbf39b23743fb7ef3d181276646a93a70
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cleveland Guardiansof Cleveland Guardians, Milwaukee Brewers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,579
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,734
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,579 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc444…20dabacked Cleveland Guardians | 60c | 1,100$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440.2 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Milwaukee Brewers | 44c | 1,012$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.57 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Milwaukee Brewers | 79c | 796.39$627 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$626.61 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Milwaukee Brewers | 41c | 769.29$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.29 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Cleveland Guardians | 33c | 391.55$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.67 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Cleveland Guardians | 54c | 353.52$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.73 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Cleveland Guardians | 64c | 330.58$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.08 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaecd…75b3backed Cleveland Guardians | 35c | 265.08$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.3 | 49 | 24.5%12 W · 37 L | -6.2wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Cleveland Guardians | 31c | 264.68$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.63 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfee8…9197backed Milwaukee Brewers | 69c | 229$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.01 | 223 | 50.7%113 W · 110 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ac…5e19backed Cleveland Guardians | 66c | 183.33$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.33 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Milwaukee Brewers | 37c | 160.21$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.71 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e4a…5ba6backed Cleveland Guardians | 31c | 158$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.02 | 115 | 42.6%49 W · 66 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c8…1badbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 32c | 156.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 156 | 39.1%61 W · 95 L | -11.5wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Milwaukee Brewers | 33c | 123.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.31 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…072dbacked Cleveland Guardians | 67c | 115.32$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.38 | 773 | 53.9%417 W · 356 L | +35.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb213…49e1backed Milwaukee Brewers | 64c | 102.8$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.65 | 129 | 56.6%73 W · 56 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 16c | 94.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Milwaukee Brewers | 40c | 90.6$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.19 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Cleveland Guardians | 71c | 79.31$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.69 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Cleveland Guardians | 31c | 71$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.99 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb1…6c8fbacked Cleveland Guardians | 65c | 70.87$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.87 | 276 | 52.9%146 W · 130 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Cleveland Guardians | 65c | 70.87$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.87 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Milwaukee Brewers | 30c | 64.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Cleveland Guardians | 71c | 62.59$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.25 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca2b…3489backed Milwaukee Brewers | 21c | 57.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 292 | 42.5%124 W · 168 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Cleveland Guardians | 30c | 55$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed Milwaukee Brewers | 70c | 51$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Milwaukee Brewers | 70c | 51$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Milwaukee Brewers | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.95 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked Cleveland Guardians | 31c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 778 | 36%280 W · 498 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9af…359cbacked Cleveland Guardians | 39c | 30.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.59 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Cleveland Guardians | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.04 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc70b…d2f2backed Cleveland Guardians | 51c | 29.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 112 | 55.4%62 W · 50 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Milwaukee Brewers | 76c | 16.65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)this page
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee BrewersCleveland Guardians won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 10.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 4.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 5.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 6.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-3.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-4.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee BrewersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.