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MLB · resolved market

Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Cleveland Guardiansof Milwaukee Brewers, Cleveland Guardians
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$55,051
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$55,016

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,051 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x32ed…f960backed Cleveland Guardians54c10,300$5,584 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,715.456,12355.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L+346.0wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Milwaukee Brewers41c8,397$3,466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,466.334,36847.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L-79.9wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Cleveland Guardians52c8,081$4,209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,872.078,59452.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L+508.9wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Milwaukee Brewers34c6,492$2,227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,226.7312,32846.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L-66.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad64…2f33backed Milwaukee Brewers39c5,128$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0006429.7%19 W · 45 L-7.1wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-27.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7760…21f0backed Milwaukee Brewers38c2,155$825 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$825.182,37547.3%1,123 W · 1,252 L-13.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed Milwaukee Brewers35c2,022$711 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$710.633,21951.2%1,649 W · 1,570 L+148.2wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+8.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Cleveland Guardians62c1,903$1,180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$723.072,31052.6%1,215 W · 1,095 L+27.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Milwaukee Brewers38c1,801$686 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$685.544,51548.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L-46.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Cleveland Guardians61c1,604$983 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$621.446,99950.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L+2.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe216…7448backed Milwaukee Brewers40c1,250$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001,21540.5%492 W · 723 L-32.2wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Cleveland Guardians61c1,117$681 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$435.633,50951%1,789 W · 1,720 L+53.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked Cleveland Guardians61c1,000$610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3901,84550.7%936 W · 909 L-4.4wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Cleveland Guardians61c999.99$610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3905,47150.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L+21.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x815f…1eefbacked Cleveland Guardians67c939.09$629 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.991252.4%478 W · 434 L+12.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e50…2609backed Milwaukee Brewers33c909.09$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30087850.5%443 W · 435 L+12.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Cleveland Guardians51c825$421 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$404.254,08757.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L+66.3wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Milwaukee Brewers46c371.11$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.111,51952.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L+213.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad88…3c1ebacked Cleveland Guardians62c330$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.448354.7%264 W · 219 L+20.8wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Milwaukee Brewers41c237.18$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.0210,97951.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L+139.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked Milwaukee Brewers35c233$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.551,11945.5%509 W · 610 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x64d4…f056backed Milwaukee Brewers41c232.99$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.6623140.3%93 W · 138 L-6.0wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x974d…bd82backed Milwaukee Brewers38c210.53$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$804443.2%19 W · 25 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f4e…1fb8backed Cleveland Guardians62c208.69$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.743,79245.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L-5.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc365…2e53backed Cleveland Guardians58c198$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.161,60753.2%855 W · 752 L+74.2wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa9f9…5273backed Cleveland Guardians59c195.8$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.7753644.6%239 W · 297 L-11.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Milwaukee Brewers35c174.97$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.415,81243.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L-188.1wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1631…072dbacked Cleveland Guardians51c161.82$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.8477353.9%417 W · 356 L+35.9wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+4.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5bda…17a8backed Cleveland Guardians62c160$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.81,75350.8%890 W · 863 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec14…7fafbacked Milwaukee Brewers38c131.58$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5047849%234 W · 244 L+14.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1b9b…bc4abacked Milwaukee Brewers39c130$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.756440.4%228 W · 336 L-16.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked Cleveland Guardians72c126$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.915,14954.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L+231.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x93ac…2761backed Cleveland Guardians56c124.78$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.092,58861.5%1,591 W · 997 L+72.3wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Cleveland Guardians62c120.84$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.924,55349.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L-9.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x10b2…4cebbacked Milwaukee Brewers39c116.2$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.094231%13 W · 29 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-13.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc85…aa54backed Cleveland Guardians52c114.93$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.4824243%104 W · 138 L-12.2wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-12.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa24d…38b2backed Milwaukee Brewers40c100.94$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.4wins-0.34per pick48cpaid-66.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xbca6…6d74backed Milwaukee Brewers38c78.95$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303938.5%15 W · 24 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-11.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc1b5…c8f8backed Milwaukee Brewers45c71.5$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.891,70849.9%852 W · 856 L-17.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5505…aa44backed Milwaukee Brewers38c69.58$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.4452045.2%235 W · 285 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Cleveland Guardians62c62$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.562,94751.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L-34.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb2e…7821backed Cleveland Guardians61c60$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.473849.3%364 W · 374 L+0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x140b…d0d9backed Milwaukee Brewers36c55.56$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Milwaukee Brewers32c53.7$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.224,18750.2%2,102 W · 2,085 L+94.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf029…b1c7backed Cleveland Guardians56c53.57$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.5710955%60 W · 49 L+0.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0870…1a0dbacked Milwaukee Brewers38c52.63$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20850%4 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+41%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked Cleveland Guardians34c52$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.321,84343.6%804 W · 1,039 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x29d8…e1b3backed Milwaukee Brewers39c51.54$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2044345.6%202 W · 241 L-10.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc718…64a8backed Milwaukee Brewers36c51.05$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.581,08356.3%610 W · 473 L+13.7wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd6b…e0f3backed Cleveland Guardians62c50.8$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.317553.7%94 W · 81 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f14…ca5abacked Cleveland Guardians51c49.76$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.531,04249.4%515 W · 527 L+13.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0fce…63d5backed Milwaukee Brewers39c46.95$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.3127345.4%124 W · 149 L-13.7wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-9.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1fb1…8436backed Cleveland Guardians43c46.51$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.5127644.9%124 W · 152 L-5.0wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd0b4…9dc2backed Milwaukee Brewers41c41.9$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179147.3%43 W · 48 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Milwaukee Brewers30c40.69$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.26,30548.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L+181.6wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x000a…6cf7backed Cleveland Guardians58c40$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.825260.7%153 W · 99 L+17.1wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+9.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8263…e0f1backed Cleveland Guardians55c39.1$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.5834754.8%190 W · 157 L+12.5wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x28e8…6080backed Cleveland Guardians61c38.31$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.9448150.7%244 W · 237 L+8.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e62…79f1backed Milwaukee Brewers57c38.18$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.7642047.9%201 W · 219 L+8.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x36f4…0eb2backed Milwaukee Brewers37c37$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6985949.1%422 W · 437 L-3.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Cleveland Guardians63c36.42$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.328,19246.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L+38.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x48b9…abe2backed Milwaukee Brewers39c35$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6534843.4%151 W · 197 L+10.3wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+8.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe581…d77abacked Cleveland Guardians58c33.21$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.087650%38 W · 38 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-11.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x51f4…3e21backed Milwaukee Brewers39c33$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8725034.8%87 W · 163 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc70b…d2f2backed Cleveland Guardians57c31.09$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.3611255.4%62 W · 50 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x5cb1…6c8fbacked Cleveland Guardians50c28.76$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.2427652.9%146 W · 130 L+9.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x133a…504abacked Cleveland Guardians56c28.57$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.5754951.2%281 W · 268 L+29.7wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+12.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xda09…16debacked Cleveland Guardians54c27.78$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.784854.2%26 W · 22 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa05a…4635backed Cleveland Guardians59c26.31$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.8183053%440 W · 390 L+12.3wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-2.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed Cleveland Guardians63c25$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.251,82854.1%989 W · 839 L+24.9wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Cleveland Guardians54c23.99$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.0359549.7%296 W · 299 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb155…ca84backed Milwaukee Brewers49c21$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2935248%169 W · 183 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b81…b68bbacked Cleveland Guardians52c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.67040%28 W · 42 L-7.0wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-29.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4836…859bbacked Cleveland Guardians61c19.93$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.721,17249.1%575 W · 597 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf766…9251backed Cleveland Guardians62c16.5$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.271,48163.5%940 W · 541 L-10.3wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.