MLB · resolved market
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x108c981eec67920a42d431a8cd967bc8f1029fe9f13a4d4534aa45b3237884dd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,933
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,876
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,933 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 41c | 6,604$2,694 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,910.61 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 66c | 4,580$3,003 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,003.46 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 45c | 2,169$981 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$980.73 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fbc…f944backed Under | 60c | 1,050$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.23 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 68c | 668.6$458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.94 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 55c | 603.91$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.21 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b0f…3476backed Over | 56c | 592.86$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -3.3wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb2fb…1c4abacked Under | 42c | 565.86$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.17 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 70c | 555.9$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.52 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Over | 59c | 517$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.03 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2725…e7d1backed Under | 75c | 500$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.17 | 358 | 49.4%177 W · 181 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa66d…6daabacked Under | 35c | 357.29$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.29 | 211 | 47.9%101 W · 110 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 55c | 354$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.37 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 49c | 303.89$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.32 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 38c | 273.15$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.35 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Over | 62c | 258.06$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 945 | 49%463 W · 482 L | -38.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 59c | 234.78$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.61 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 63c | 167.81$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.83 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1bd…b053backed Under | 47c | 149.19$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.07 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…072dbacked Over | 52c | 109.73$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.36 | 773 | 53.9%417 W · 356 L | +35.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb1…6c8fbacked Under | 75c | 97.58$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.03 | 276 | 52.9%146 W · 130 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18b6…babfbacked Over | 37c | 95.95$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 314 | 49.4%155 W · 159 L | -9.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 50c | 90.95$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.31 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…0f76backed Over | 62c | 80.61$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.73 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Under | 74c | 72.07$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.52 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfd…b845backed Over | 60c | 66$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 268 | 60.4%162 W · 106 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Under | 27c | 65.6$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.89 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 54c | 64.85$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.27 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc169…cb6abacked Over | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 51c | 62.07$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.72 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 38c | 57.91$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.91 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 38c | 53.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.41 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87c0…244ebacked Over | 59c | 51.49$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.38 | 219 | 48.4%106 W · 113 L | +11.0wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 62c | 50.6$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.37 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 26c | 39.88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Under | 64c | 38.4$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.76 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Under | 48c | 36.83$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.15 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b81…b68bbacked Over | 54c | 35.29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | -7.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x29d8…e1b3backed Over | 59c | 33.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 443 | 45.6%202 W · 241 L | -10.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Over | 57c | 32.91$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.61 | 439 | 54.7%240 W · 199 L | +30.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Over | 61c | 30.35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Over | 64c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.13 | 694 | 47.6%330 W · 364 L | -9.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc85…aa54backed Under | 72c | 27.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 242 | 43%104 W · 138 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x002e…bd31backed Under | 77c | 27.25$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 47c | 24.12$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43a8…d77fbacked Over | 61c | 16.43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 142 | 59.2%84 W · 58 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 6.5this page
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee BrewersCleveland Guardians won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 10.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 4.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 5.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-3.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-4.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee BrewersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.