MLB · resolved market
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0018b8a1c2e13a16aef87ff573f16258227733410ff2cbf685efeae0aa80742d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,712
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,930
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,712 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa66d…6daabacked Under | 57c | 8,644$4,960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,683.57 | 211 | 47.9%101 W · 110 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 41c | 5,574$2,297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,296.77 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 43c | 5,462$2,358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,357.62 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 71c | 3,460$2,456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,003.37 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93a0…6623backed Under | 60c | 2,508$1,505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,003.19 | 398 | 46.5%185 W · 213 L | -16.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 58c | 1,945$1,127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$818.29 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 33c | 1,165$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.29 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 65c | 962.67$625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.87 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Over | 35c | 528.35$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.12 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 40c | 528$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.48 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 75c | 500$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 35c | 462.77$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.67 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 40c | 429$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.89 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Over | 35c | 368.64$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.54 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c6…7b39backed Over | 25c | 357$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.42 | 232 | 40.9%95 W · 137 L | -9.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…072dbacked Under | 69c | 300.59$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.89 | 773 | 53.9%417 W · 356 L | +35.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 25c | 266$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.4 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 42c | 233.7$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.15 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 24c | 222.16$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.32 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x64d4…f056backed Over | 35c | 169$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.15 | 231 | 40.3%93 W · 138 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Over | 35c | 161.59$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.37 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb1…6c8fbacked Over | 35c | 128.61$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.52 | 276 | 52.9%146 W · 130 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf388…5c83backed Over | 36c | 127.25$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.94 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -37%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 67c | 118.23$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.04 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Under | 75c | 117.5$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.95 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Over | 42c | 90.26$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.18 | 625 | 54.2%339 W · 286 L | +23.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Over | 38c | 83.68$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.45 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 23c | 79.1$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 66c | 77.77$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.66 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 36c | 75.75$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Over | 35c | 75$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 447 | 45.6%204 W · 243 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b81…b68bbacked Over | 42c | 74.96$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.21 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | -7.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…5273backed Over | 30c | 73.65$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 536 | 44.6%239 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e62…79f1backed Over | 40c | 73.03$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.21 | 420 | 47.9%201 W · 219 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 46c | 73$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.35 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 26c | 65.58$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc70b…d2f2backed Over | 37c | 65$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.01 | 112 | 55.4%62 W · 50 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Over | 34c | 61.13$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.98 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc85…aa54backed Over | 33c | 58.28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 242 | 43%104 W · 138 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Under | 65c | 57.76$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.36 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…0f76backed Over | 37c | 57.57$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.27 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe581…d77abacked Over | 40c | 56.61$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.43 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 46c | 54.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.28 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 41c | 53.68$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Over | 43c | 52.42$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.54 | 780 | 52.2%407 W · 373 L | +22.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Over | 25c | 50.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 694 | 47.6%330 W · 364 L | -9.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Under | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 241 | 52.7%127 W · 114 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46b1…428cbacked Over | 47c | 42.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 191 | 63.4%121 W · 70 L | +14.3wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked Over | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 778 | 36%280 W · 498 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29d8…e1b3backed Over | 49c | 36.12$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 443 | 45.6%202 W · 241 L | -10.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ac…427fbacked Over | 45c | 34.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 70 | 50%35 W · 35 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 41c | 29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28f7…404dbacked Over | 46c | 23.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 476 | 46.2%220 W · 256 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Under | 77c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1bd…b053backed Under | 64c | 17.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.35 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e20…5cf9backed Under | 71c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 150 | 48%72 W · 78 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5this page
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee BrewersCleveland Guardians won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 10.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 4.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 5.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 6.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-3.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-4.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee BrewersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.