MLB · resolved market
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdd243055f67b28929b8333b3f51b15ad56e4e675948b33dd5ebd53c2885d9fb0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Atlanta Bravesof Atlanta Braves, New York Mets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,192
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,861
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,192 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8a26…937ebacked New York Mets | 39c | 16,669$6,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,500 | 613 | 51.5%316 W · 297 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Atlanta Braves | 53c | 8,170$4,330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,839.59 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Atlanta Braves | 57c | 2,713$1,557 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,155.55 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Atlanta Braves | 62c | 2,176$1,341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$834.62 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Atlanta Braves | 52c | 1,811$944 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$866.62 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Atlanta Braves | 26c | 669.23$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495.23 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Atlanta Braves | 27c | 566.65$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415.01 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Atlanta Braves | 57c | 403.51$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.51 | 639 | 43.3%277 W · 362 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Atlanta Braves | 58c | 216.17$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.84 | 1,000 | 58.8%588 W · 412 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Atlanta Braves | 57c | 122$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.88 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…5273backed Atlanta Braves | 74c | 119.49$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.59 | 536 | 44.6%239 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed New York Mets | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked New York Mets | 32c | 96.38$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.25 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8649…ba57backed Atlanta Braves | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabbc…04a3backed Atlanta Braves | 49c | 81.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.63 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked New York Mets | 15c | 77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed New York Mets | 25c | 64.81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x26d0…566ebacked Atlanta Braves | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c3e…df5dbacked Atlanta Braves | 71c | 61$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3e…5a7abacked Atlanta Braves | 26c | 55.77$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.27 | 557 | 58%323 W · 234 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Atlanta Braves | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed New York Mets | 46c | 48.64$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.37 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked Atlanta Braves | 73c | 37.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 102 | 53.9%55 W · 47 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Atlanta Braves | 58c | 30.54$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.82 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbd…d0dfbacked Atlanta Braves | 53c | 29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.63 | 318 | 48.7%155 W · 163 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed New York Mets | 46c | 27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed New York Mets | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Atlanta Braves | 57c | 20.77$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5a…aa7abacked Atlanta Braves | 61c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-4.5)this page
- New York Mets vs. Atlanta BravesAtlanta Braves won
- New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 10.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 11.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 12.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 13.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-3.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-5.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-6.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Atlanta BravesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.