Tennis · resolved market
Musetti vs. Fritz: Total Sets O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdd3915ab9de231a4f8d1b6989b9d28c81a39d3372fc2f5e5d5e09c5c36bd15e0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Under 3.5of Over 3.5, Under 3.5
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,482
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,347
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,482 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under 3.5 | 33c | 1,932$646 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,286.31 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under 3.5 | 33c | 1,760$589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,170.81 | 2,375 | 51.1%1,213 W · 1,162 L | +8.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd6…5f62backed Over 3.5 | 67c | 1,500$1,005 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,004.95 | 454 | 57.9%263 W · 191 L | -14.2wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under 3.5 | 33c | 1,421$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$953.04 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under 3.5 | 32c | 1,159$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$791.59 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2060…9186backed Over 3.5 | 67c | 1,001$671 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$670.51 | 128 | 61.7%79 W · 49 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4cf…3e8cbacked Over 3.5 | 66c | 606.06$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7bf…b02dbacked Over 3.5 | 66c | 454.55$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 591 | 65.3%386 W · 205 L | -16.9wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86dd…98aabacked Over 3.5 | 69c | 434.78$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 46cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7daf…0ec8backed Over 3.5 | 28c | 422.26$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.23 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9714…3014backed Over 3.5 | 67c | 304.22$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.66 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9edc…b088backed Under 3.5 | 33c | 300$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201 | 284 | 24.3%69 W · 215 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Over 3.5 | 67c | 299$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.33 | 898 | 50.1%450 W · 448 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c2c…90d4backed Over 3.5 | 67c | 298.68$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 234 | 54.7%128 W · 106 L | +10.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed Under 3.5 | 34c | 294.09$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.1 | 420 | 46.9%197 W · 223 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb405…c706backed Under 3.5 | 32c | 246.88$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.31 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb21d…76d2backed Over 3.5 | 67c | 184.7$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.75 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.9wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…21b7backed Over 3.5 | 66c | 181.82$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…c6a8backed Over 3.5 | 67c | 165.37$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.75 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Over 3.5 | 71c | 155.13$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.58 | 439 | 48.5%213 W · 226 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6779…eed9backed Over 3.5 | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9376…d77cbacked Over 3.5 | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 42 | 71.4%30 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Under 3.5 | 72c | 150.53$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.53 | 2,343 | 51.6%1,209 W · 1,134 L | +95.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9359…6aacbacked Over 3.5 | 68c | 150$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 157 | 51.6%81 W · 76 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c37…9b8cbacked Over 3.5 | 67c | 149.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.94 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f8f…8ed0backed Over 3.5 | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x788d…99bbbacked Over 3.5 | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa74d…734cbacked Over 3.5 | 66c | 136.24$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.92 | 284 | 62.3%177 W · 107 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under 3.5 | 72c | 133$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.08 | 4,426 | 51.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L | +136.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70b1…73b2backed Under 3.5 | 34c | 74.27$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.02 | 85 | 49.4%42 W · 43 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad2e…5154backed Over 3.5 | 66c | 61.53$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.61 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x817e…537ebacked Over 3.5 | 66c | 60.41$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -5.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3494…04f4backed Over 3.5 | 29c | 48.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 69 | 40.6%28 W · 41 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae9…facabacked Over 3.5 | 66c | 44.21$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.18 | 198 | 56.1%111 W · 87 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Under 3.5 | 34c | 42.52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.06 | 1,245 | 33.9%422 W · 823 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3682…5065backed Over 3.5 | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8112…9406backed Over 3.5 | 66c | 25.15$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18dd…6bf2backed Over 3.5 | 69c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd19f…4bbebacked Under 3.5 | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab90…5793backed Over 3.5 | 65c | 15.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.27per pick | 45cpaid | -73.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Musetti vs. Fritz: Total Sets O/U 3.5this page
- Australian Open Men's: Lorenzo Musetti vs Taylor FritzMusetti won
- Musetti vs. Fritz: Match O/U 38.5Under won
- Musetti vs. Fritz: Match O/U 40.5Under won
- Set 1 Winner: Musetti vs FritzMusetti won
- Set Handicap: Fritz (-2.5) vs Musetti (+2.5)Musetti won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.