Lol · resolved market
LoL: T1 vs No Need Orga (BO1)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdd3f996eb0572444b5ff83af10df348e4d49af31353b88d50186b6e112a13167
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- T1of T1, No Need Orga
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $67,084
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $92,574
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $67,084 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed No Need Orga | 25c | 8,084$1,996 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,996.25 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d9a…4e25backed No Need Orga | 17c | 3,315$573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$572.89 | 131 | 51.1%67 W · 64 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No Need Orga | 5c | 3,264$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.63 | 2,406 | 42.6%1,026 W · 1,380 L | +21.5wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fdc…6d51backed T1 | 77c | 2,931$2,248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$683.04 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 70cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95b8…47c9backed T1 | 73c | 2,742$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$742.44 | 669 | 47.8%320 W · 349 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ffc…8967backed No Need Orga | 15c | 2,470$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.19 | 236 | 24.6%58 W · 178 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed No Need Orga | 18c | 2,193$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.82 | 3,584 | 40.1%1,437 W · 2,147 L | +31.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…45eebacked T1 | 77c | 1,948$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.05 | 595 | 58.3%347 W · 248 L | -29.3wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb875…68a8backed No Need Orga | 20c | 1,713$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.6 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked No Need Orga | 24c | 1,517$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.1 | 245 | 29.8%73 W · 172 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c14…7bc1backed No Need Orga | 21c | 1,457$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | +5.8wins | +0.17per pick | 48cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0d7b…a54bbacked No Need Orga | 1c | 1,071$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed No Need Orga | 22c | 863.75$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.57 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5eab…d552backed T1 | 63c | 798.59$505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.72 | 386 | 24.4%94 W · 292 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25ed…6ac6backed T1 | 79c | 630.79$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.47 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -3.4wins | -0.18per pick | 44cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfaab…e6f2backed T1 | 75c | 600$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 72cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked No Need Orga | 16c | 545.08$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.27 | 1,609 | 48.4%779 W · 830 L | +24.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24d3…e628backed No Need Orga | 19c | 530.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed No Need Orga | 15c | 500$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 2,362 | 32%755 W · 1,607 L | +42.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x180f…0c07backed T1 | 77c | 500$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d75…cf0bbacked No Need Orga | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 176 | 6.3%11 W · 165 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8944…41d5backed No Need Orga | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19fd…5838backed No Need Orga | 24c | 446.5$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.98 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No Need Orga | 12c | 423.98$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.97 | 169 | 34.3%58 W · 111 L | -9.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed T1 | 77c | 406.69$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.54 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc5cb…9c55backed T1 | 75c | 399.47$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.47 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe761…cdb1backed No Need Orga | 25c | 396$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…6157backed No Need Orga | 14c | 336.24$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.99 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea5…2af9backed T1 | 77c | 325.19$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.19 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e87…8befbacked T1 | 77c | 324.68$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.68 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 68cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x031b…babcbacked No Need Orga | 26c | 323.75$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5dc…ec43backed T1 | 80c | 300$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 596 | 47.7%284 W · 312 L | -10.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca47…3ef4backed No Need Orga | 21c | 242.4$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.9 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cea…2d58backed T1 | 78c | 220$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.4 | 163 | 54%88 W · 75 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0303…2ae3backed No Need Orga | 25c | 205.58$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb82b…3a09backed T1 | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 180 | 46.7%84 W · 96 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b75…3fd1backed No Need Orga | 9c | 199.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 941 | 34.5%325 W · 616 L | +33.6wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0c3dbacked No Need Orga | 20c | 191.61$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.59 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No Need Orga | 15c | 183.3$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.88 | 898 | 10.7%96 W · 802 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf4c…d5dbbacked T1 | 77c | 173.1$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.81 | 116 | 58.6%68 W · 48 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0814…875abacked T1 | 77c | 154.55$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.55 | 300 | 57.7%173 W · 127 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca67…c864backed No Need Orga | 27c | 125.93$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 187 | 44.9%84 W · 103 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x476b…8a58backed T1 | 75c | 120$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1,136 | 63.1%717 W · 419 L | +51.0wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc56…cccebacked No Need Orga | 13c | 111.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x20ec…fa43backed No Need Orga | 19c | 107.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 406 | 45.6%185 W · 221 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa64…969dbacked T1 | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…4ab2backed No Need Orga | 20c | 95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 664 | 45.6%303 W · 361 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87ea…f625backed No Need Orga | 15c | 85.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 105 | 33.3%35 W · 70 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21b2…b602backed T1 | 76c | 83.82$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.92 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | -8.5wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9a7f…4b5dbacked T1 | 70c | 76$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 323 | 50.8%164 W · 159 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb6b…943abacked T1 | 74c | 67.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 37 | 67.6%25 W · 12 L | +4.2wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa1fa…f3bebacked T1 | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed No Need Orga | 26c | 51.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 142 | 36.6%52 W · 90 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad1b…5da0backed No Need Orga | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74a0…1be2backed T1 | 79c | 49.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 186 | 56.5%105 W · 81 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7163…3601backed T1 | 70c | 47.93$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.36 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x478b…f94ebacked T1 | 74c | 46.45$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.08 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.14per pick | 67cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4764…1a16backed T1 | 77c | 45.78$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…3583backed T1 | 80c | 43.16$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.65 | 55 | 29.1%16 W · 39 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c5…016abacked T1 | 70c | 42$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0257…22b2backed T1 | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 840 | 50.1%421 W · 419 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x405f…4940backed T1 | 73c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +154.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x272d…9e36backed T1 | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 72cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b4b…b054backed T1 | 76c | 28.82$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9904…c9b1backed T1 | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a12…f5dcbacked T1 | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6d1…b785backed T1 | 74c | 25.68$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.68 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf575…5d6cbacked T1 | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.