MLB · resolved market
Chicago Cubs vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdd5f1a92b62f8a4e98f07a62fbcd5ee6a1cb646efde8bde8c79dc66f301119ba
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,348
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,489
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,348 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x18a6…c8d3backed Under | 61c | 13,472$8,181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,181.07 | 93 | 50.5%47 W · 46 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 40c | 11,810$4,729 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,080.97 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0140…9510backed Under | 52c | 1,869$969 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$968.73 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Over | 34c | 1,531$521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,010.65 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Over | 48c | 1,111$533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$577.72 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78b0…9f1abacked Under | 52c | 996.44$518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$518.15 | 390 | 47.4%185 W · 205 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 49c | 960.81$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$486.14 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3df…82fabacked Under | 49c | 623.4$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.16 | 488 | 50.2%245 W · 243 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Over | 50c | 389$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.01 | 940 | 34.3%322 W · 618 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Over | 48c | 318.74$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.74 | 920 | 54%497 W · 423 L | +23.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Under | 53c | 260.35$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.1 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 70c | 224.56$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.37 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 41c | 199.09$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.47 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02f3…56aebacked Over | 49c | 198.01$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.99 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d14…ff3ebacked Over | 50c | 194.94$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.95 | 128 | 45.3%58 W · 70 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x068c…582ebacked Under | 52c | 186.77$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.12 | 384 | 55.2%212 W · 172 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5aa…4464backed Over | 48c | 169.32$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.05 | 288 | 50.3%145 W · 143 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 48c | 159.13$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.75 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 48c | 140.75$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.19 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 43c | 133.03$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.04 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…eecabacked Over | 50c | 131.01$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.04 | 222 | 48.6%108 W · 114 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd96a…d8cebacked Under | 17c | 129.96$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.64 | 335 | 15.5%52 W · 283 L | -12.7wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef54…c997backed Over | 48c | 121.1$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.97 | 208 | 51.9%108 W · 100 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 62c | 114.5$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.29 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Under | 53c | 110.02$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.31 | 361 | 57.9%209 W · 152 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1036…6c9fbacked Over | 47c | 103$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.59 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 47c | 89.3$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.33 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Over | 48c | 63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.76 | 722 | 47.6%344 W · 378 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Over | 48c | 61.02$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.73 | 496 | 49.8%247 W · 249 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Under | 38c | 60.76$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.09 | 123 | 39%48 W · 75 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0258…13bfbacked Over | 49c | 58.6$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.88 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f5…bb11backed Over | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 559 | 53.1%297 W · 262 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 50c | 46.77$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2798…a9c7backed Over | 49c | 39.57$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.18 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Over | 41c | 37.83$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.23 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked Under | 58c | 29.71$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.23 | 229 | 49.8%114 W · 115 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Over | 48c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 297 | 52.5%156 W · 141 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 55c | 24.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Over | 65c | 17.92$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chicago Cubs vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5this page
- Chicago Cubs vs. Los Angeles DodgersLos Angeles Dodgers won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 15.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 17.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago Cubs vs. Los Angeles DodgersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.