Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Jodar (-1.5) vs Nishikori (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdda8ddf9368daacb5bd089b0335c202fe336a459903c882d8e896eaeb51d98ee
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Jodarof Jodar, Nishikori
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,495
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,743
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,495 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Nishikori | 37c | 2,503$938 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$937.63 | 2,204 | 36.9%813 W · 1,391 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e1…d80bbacked Jodar | 62c | 1,733$1,075 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$658.6 | 85 | 55.3%47 W · 38 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa35b…60e9backed Jodar | 62c | 1,208$749 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459.06 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224e…f7ddbacked Jodar | 63c | 1,095$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.99 | 89 | 51.7%46 W · 43 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Nishikori | 38c | 999.92$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.67 | 1,515 | 37.7%571 W · 944 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc463…9a2fbacked Nishikori | 38c | 769.81$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.17 | 582 | 32%186 W · 396 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Nishikori | 42c | 677.55$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.02 | 9,374 | 44.3%4,154 W · 5,220 L | -244.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Nishikori | 38c | 651.37$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.94 | 2,444 | 51.3%1,254 W · 1,190 L | +14.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Nishikori | 38c | 600$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228 | 692 | 44.4%307 W · 385 L | +29.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Nishikori | 38c | 600$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228 | 7,107 | 39.7%2,820 W · 4,287 L | -17.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b14…3ca3backed Jodar | 59c | 479.99$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.8 | 498 | 47.2%235 W · 263 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Jodar | 63c | 459.33$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.95 | 2,887 | 39.5%1,141 W · 1,746 L | -84.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…3ac3backed Nishikori | 39c | 305.67$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.21 | 1,723 | 50.1%863 W · 860 L | +29.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafe6…8192backed Jodar | 62c | 300$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114 | 253 | 40.3%102 W · 151 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Nishikori | 31c | 248.13$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.67 | 2,433 | 50.8%1,236 W · 1,197 L | +81.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa84d…bebdbacked Jodar | 72c | 197.76$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.77 | 347 | 48.1%167 W · 180 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x944e…96a8backed Jodar | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 66 | 50%33 W · 33 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…ad9ebacked Jodar | 62c | 161.45$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.45 | 510 | 52%265 W · 245 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb086…fee9backed Jodar | 62c | 158.73$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.32 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c4…c777backed Jodar | 60c | 158$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.25 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2c…208ebacked Jodar | 62c | 147.94$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.22 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7747…8d9bbacked Jodar | 64c | 136.39$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.47 | 319 | 41.4%132 W · 187 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17ef…9a2cbacked Nishikori | 39c | 133.21$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.9 | 826 | 57.1%472 W · 354 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40e3…5627backed Jodar | 57c | 130$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.9 | 168 | 48.2%81 W · 87 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb421…8856backed Nishikori | 41c | 117.68$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.1 | 1,785 | 48.7%869 W · 916 L | +30.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07c3…50ffbacked Jodar | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 63cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x57b2…9da2backed Nishikori | 41c | 82.21$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.71 | 401 | 35.7%143 W · 258 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27db…32a2backed Jodar | 62c | 62.82$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.87 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x518e…2718backed Jodar | 63c | 62.51$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.13 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +65.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c67…1c5abacked Jodar | 63c | 60.73$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.47 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +65.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x125a…df71backed Nishikori | 38c | 49.73$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 1,066 | 50.1%534 W · 532 L | +48.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf504…60a2backed Jodar | 60c | 41.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e37…5bdbbacked Jodar | 60c | 40.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.39 | 198 | 52.5%104 W · 94 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Nishikori | 29c | 39.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 1,381 | 16.4%227 W · 1,154 L | -108.5wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a4…3926backed Jodar | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 594 | 66.7%396 W · 198 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2518…6236backed Jodar | 62c | 32.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.37 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +23%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc22f…ae8abacked Jodar | 62c | 31.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.06 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf863…5254backed Jodar | 63c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.56 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4b4…b1f4backed Jodar | 63c | 29.06$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5a…c420backed Jodar | 62c | 25.66$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x678a…05ffbacked Jodar | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 126 | 53.2%67 W · 59 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a0e…9006backed Jodar | 62c | 23.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8466…c2c9backed Jodar | 62c | 23.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb92…c9bbbacked Jodar | 62c | 23.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33cb…3af8backed Jodar | 58c | 20.78$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Jodar (-1.5) vs Nishikori (+1.5)this page
- Jodar vs. Nishikori: Match O/U 21.5Under won
- Mubadala Citi DC Open: Rafael Jodar vs Kei NishikoriRafael Jodar won
- Set 1 Winner: Jodar vs NishikoriJodar won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.