TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Mubadala Citi DC Open: Rafael Jodar vs Kei Nishikori

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Rafael Jodarof Rafael Jodar, Kei Nishikori
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$383,342
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$434,388

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $383,342 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5268…135dbacked Kei Nishikori11c23,073$2,564 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,564.324,18544.7%1,871 W · 2,314 L+14.9wins0.00per pick44cpaid-17.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb85…152fbacked Kei Nishikori18c19,614$3,458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,458.3617746.3%82 W · 95 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Kei Nishikori5c18,786$1,011 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,011.138,21745.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L+166.6wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc463…9a2fbacked Kei Nishikori17c18,043$3,148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,147.7458232%186 W · 396 L-10.8wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x32b4…8b21backed Kei Nishikori15c17,423$2,609 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,609.43,60542.4%1,530 W · 2,075 L-43.2wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb272…5030backed Kei Nishikori17c15,000$2,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,55014443.8%63 W · 81 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x30c1…9f91backed Kei Nishikori16c15,000$2,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,399.9816344.8%73 W · 90 L-6.8wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-7.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Kei Nishikori8c12,417$1,002 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,002.318,82836.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L-193.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-27.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Kei Nishikori10c9,084$947 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$947.251,43524.3%348 W · 1,087 L-36.2wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-22.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Kei Nishikori17c8,202$1,357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,357.292,37551.1%1,213 W · 1,162 L+8.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Kei Nishikori15c8,088$1,206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,205.841,17846.3%545 W · 633 L+0.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f15…bdb3backed Kei Nishikori18c8,020$1,444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,443.651,14941.3%474 W · 675 L+23.6wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Kei Nishikori16c6,064$961 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$961.078,50542.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L-166.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21b7…c861backed Kei Nishikori18c5,555$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.931736.9%117 W · 200 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+9.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x64e9…eb4cbacked Kei Nishikori16c5,445$885 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$884.6411941.2%49 W · 70 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Kei Nishikori18c5,000$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9004,07639.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L+93.7wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a00…9158backed Kei Nishikori18c5,000$878 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$877.6978840.6%320 W · 468 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-8.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb517…06ddbacked Kei Nishikori17c4,775$812 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$811.754158.5%24 W · 17 L+4.0wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+12.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9d8a…5201backed Kei Nishikori24c4,000$978 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$978.421,42128.6%407 W · 1,014 L+4.5wins0.00per pick28cpaid-8.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Kei Nishikori16c3,648$584 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$583.653,66145.2%1,654 W · 2,007 L-8.7wins0.00per pick45cpaid-12.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d92…8676backed Kei Nishikori17c3,600$612 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6123164.5%20 W · 11 L+4.0wins+0.13per pick52cpaid+25%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Kei Nishikori16c3,581$573 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5735651.8%29 W · 27 L+5.4wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+25.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x545d…c122backed Kei Nishikori17c2,941$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50046030.4%140 W · 320 L-18.7wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-19.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x57b2…9da2backed Kei Nishikori18c2,704$487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$486.6839135.8%140 W · 251 L-0.4wins0.00per pick36cpaid+3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf148…0b4fbacked Kei Nishikori20c2,466$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50036545.2%165 W · 200 L+0.3wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1350…7169backed Kei Nishikori16c2,410$384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$383.687035.7%25 W · 45 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+23.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa0f2…1848backed Kei Nishikori18c2,333$413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$413.411,36543.3%591 W · 774 L-26.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-19.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Kei Nishikori16c2,122$347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$346.7278536.1%283 W · 502 L+36.6wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+15.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked Kei Nishikori17c2,000$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3401,51037.7%569 W · 941 L+24.5wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Kei Nishikori19c1,779$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$337.854,24152.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L+65.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3783…0038backed Kei Nishikori17c1,765$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3003636.1%13 W · 23 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick32cpaid-2.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1861…408dbacked Kei Nishikori17c1,709$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.4944851.6%231 W · 217 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x99f0…9495backed Kei Nishikori15c1,615$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.282,17436.9%802 W · 1,372 L+39.5wins+0.02per pick35cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Kei Nishikori17c1,540$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.811,43543.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L+17.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Kei Nishikori18c1,284$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.873,25648.2%1,570 W · 1,686 L-53.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc6d2…d00fbacked Kei Nishikori13c1,183$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.6111741.9%49 W · 68 L+5.5wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked Kei Nishikori18c1,000$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18033235.2%117 W · 215 L+8.5wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9028…8608backed Kei Nishikori6c989.72$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.7942546.4%197 W · 228 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-12.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x5d63…9075backed Kei Nishikori6c952.54$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.4587741.3%362 W · 515 L-14.3wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1245…e0afbacked Kei Nishikori19c866.53$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.641625%4 W · 12 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-24.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc1d7…47a4backed Kei Nishikori18c788.89$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1421,02341.3%422 W · 601 L-24.8wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb07…e2ccbacked Kei Nishikori17c749.99$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.126441.7%110 W · 154 L+9.4wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+12.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3556…af4fbacked Kei Nishikori15c731.93$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.0127724.9%69 W · 208 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ca6…4b74backed Kei Nishikori19c684.16$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.9944442.3%188 W · 256 L+14.5wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7547…d158backed Kei Nishikori18c600$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1087,04939.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L-20.5wins0.00per pick40cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x789c…0d10backed Kei Nishikori8c595.25$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.6229149.5%144 W · 147 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-10.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Kei Nishikori19c513.71$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.672,76647.7%1,318 W · 1,448 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-18.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Kei Nishikori11c511.62$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.692,85439.5%1,126 W · 1,728 L-83.5wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-22.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x17af…b7e4backed Kei Nishikori20c500$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10029948.5%145 W · 154 L+9.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+11%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Kei Nishikori17c455.48$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.436,44946.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L-42.9wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8a1…ceb5backed Kei Nishikori18c372.22$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$678234.1%28 W · 54 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-1.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6e4…68bebacked Kei Nishikori17c371.24$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.1113636.8%50 W · 86 L+7.4wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+5.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfb0c…8c72backed Kei Nishikori17c364.28$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.5452847%248 W · 280 L-19.8wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-8.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed Kei Nishikori16c360$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.635938.2%137 W · 222 L+7.5wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb8c6…7b39backed Kei Nishikori18c359.86$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.7738141.2%157 W · 224 L+10.0wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xea2e…1e57backed Kei Nishikori18c341.81$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$631428.6%4 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick29cpaid+11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x398f…30f2backed Kei Nishikori11c299.87$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.7116941.4%70 W · 99 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-25.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6318…46b1backed Kei Nishikori17c291.26$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505,26128.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L-19.4wins0.00per pick29cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Kei Nishikori18c278$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.047,72447.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L+41.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d6d…f2b4backed Kei Nishikori19c266.85$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5047058.5%275 W · 195 L-10.9wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x323e…1ddabacked Kei Nishikori17c239.94$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.1963537.6%239 W · 396 L+20.7wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc7f7…2abfbacked Kei Nishikori18c220.53$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.773048.8%356 W · 374 L-18.5wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b6e…f544backed Kei Nishikori13c197.96$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.6932329.7%96 W · 227 L-12.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-28.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9767…1a16backed Kei Nishikori22c175.61$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.6335450.8%180 W · 174 L+15.8wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x19b7…9ee6backed Kei Nishikori17c168.53$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.655036%18 W · 32 L+3.8wins+0.08per pick28cpaid+16.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xff19…3ebebacked Kei Nishikori17c168.53$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.653951.3%20 W · 19 L+4.4wins+0.11per pick40cpaid+25.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8d3d…31b8backed Kei Nishikori18c153.68$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.871631.3%5 W · 11 L-2.6wins-0.16per pick48cpaid-24.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5bda…17a8backed Kei Nishikori19c150.01$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.51,15148.7%560 W · 591 L+8.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe481…d138backed Kei Nishikori18c148.02$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.6428442.3%120 W · 164 L-0.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x003d…8fc0backed Kei Nishikori16c138$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.6922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-52.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x64e8…7819backed Kei Nishikori18c130.94$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.951,88235.5%669 W · 1,213 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d67…3667backed Kei Nishikori18c130.89$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.5670537.6%265 W · 440 L-37.4wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-27.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc470…c792backed Kei Nishikori17c117.65$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201,50435.1%528 W · 976 L+12.5wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4060…e63cbacked Rafael Jodar80c100$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2027437.2%102 W · 172 L-21.9wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-14.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed Kei Nishikori17c100$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173,87445.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L-39.6wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xecae…c544backed Kei Nishikori16c98.99$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.0643144.8%193 W · 238 L-5.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee72…e96cbacked Kei Nishikori11c93.75$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4732…f40dbacked Kei Nishikori17c91.47$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.2523530.2%71 W · 164 L-13.9wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-32.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3ca9…424abacked Kei Nishikori16c91$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.511,71053.7%918 W · 792 L+30.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-8.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x444d…a5fcbacked Kei Nishikori12c87.23$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.26837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-11.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b43…e244backed Kei Nishikori18c85.45$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.7550%0 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x17f7…4f7cbacked Kei Nishikori18c73.59$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.992055%11 W · 9 L+3.7wins+0.18per pick37cpaid+49.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0765…9e3fbacked Kei Nishikori18c71.78$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.2350%0 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8c99…ebdcbacked Kei Nishikori20c60$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1213043.1%56 W · 74 L+6.0wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+13.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xae33…ba39backed Kei Nishikori18c56$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.081070%7 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick65cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xffd4…b60fbacked Rafael Jodar77c55$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.653050%15 W · 15 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-6.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x12e3…7982backed Kei Nishikori23c46.31$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.659722.7%22 W · 75 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-46.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f92…7379backed Rafael Jodar80c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$418068.9%124 W · 56 L0.0wins0.00per pick69cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.