Fifa International · resolved market
Will Japan be the highest-scoring team in Group F during the Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdda9e8c7e1235fabe0719f8f43affd5cbb539ab55e26481c9acab6ac0ba910a8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,087
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,180
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,087 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Yes | 32c | 931.3$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.53 | 252 | 44.8%113 W · 139 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbe…c4b7backed No | 76c | 677.83$515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.37 | 888 | 38.2%339 W · 549 L | +37.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e9…bdacbacked No | 67c | 480$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.6 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 29c | 399.99$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 550 | 44.7%246 W · 304 L | -27.4wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 70c | 255$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.31 | 285 | 54.4%155 W · 130 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71a5…b594backed Yes | 23c | 170.3$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.57 | 185 | 38.9%72 W · 113 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 11c | 130.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 457 | 36.3%166 W · 291 L | -13.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 80c | 130$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.2 | 130 | 51.5%67 W · 63 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 69c | 129$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.99 | 260 | 37.3%97 W · 163 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 56c | 113$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.82 | 361 | 39.1%141 W · 220 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 70c | 90$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.42 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 76c | 88.87$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.1 | 84 | 40.5%34 W · 50 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbb…ad2ebacked Yes | 20c | 85$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 77 | 44.2%34 W · 43 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a91…0776backed No | 69c | 82.14$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.46 | 65 | 41.5%27 W · 38 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -17%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x300c…6a92backed Yes | 14c | 80$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 108 | 49.1%53 W · 55 L | +5.9wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03e1…e180backed No | 58c | 80$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 69 | 40.6%28 W · 41 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 57c | 70$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.27 | 199 | 39.7%79 W · 120 L | -7.2wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa853…58a9backed Yes | 19c | 65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc436…76c9backed No | 77c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3089…92f6backed Yes | 24c | 58.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 178 | 28.1%50 W · 128 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -25%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 55c | 57$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.65 | 332 | 37.3%124 W · 208 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1f…6465backed No | 69c | 47.89$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 136 | 41.2%56 W · 80 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 80c | 47.06$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.55 | 121 | 50.4%61 W · 60 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 60c | 45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 130 | 60.8%79 W · 51 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd3…36c5backed No | 69c | 42.55$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.19 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 779 | 9.6%75 W · 704 L | -11.8wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked Yes | 49c | 39.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 85 | 42.4%36 W · 49 L | -11.7wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -25%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 76c | 39.29$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 4,027 | 38.9%1,568 W · 2,459 L | -26.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 73c | 35.9$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.63 | 175 | 58.9%103 W · 72 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 55c | 33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.97 | 339 | 37.5%127 W · 212 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 75c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 1,135 | 40.2%456 W · 679 L | +5.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 77c | 20.3$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 486 | 36.6%178 W · 308 L | -48.4wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 151 | 58.3%88 W · 63 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82f1…89c4backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 61cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x608f…9065backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -36%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Japan be the highest-scoring team in Group F during the Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup?this page
- Will Netherlands be the highest-scoring team in Group F during the Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes won
- Will Sweden be the highest-scoring team in Group F during the Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.