Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on August 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xde0ed2ada0835310c51c74366f54ff5c826d35e0685be58f5b4fd81351b6aae2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,927
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,075
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,927 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 25c | 1,487$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.84 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 72c | 1,137$822 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.57 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 26c | 635.61$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.43 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2383…fef0backed No | 77c | 519.97$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.99 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a2b…c3cbbacked Yes | 9c | 421.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 142 | 22.5%32 W · 110 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 10c | 371.08$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.17 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 6c | 352.69$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 76c | 319.97$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.79 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 80c | 297.97$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.67 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 73c | 280.88$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.34 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3721…3abebacked Yes | 4c | 279$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 81 | 34.6%28 W · 53 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 6c | 252.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 33c | 229.62$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.23 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 345 | 33%114 W · 231 L | +20.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 27c | 198.98$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 73c | 190.09$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.48 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 21c | 190$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.76 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed Yes | 12c | 188.92$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.73 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 68c | 181.83$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.47 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd66f…ddbebacked Yes | 9c | 171.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8116…465dbacked Yes | 28c | 169.12$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.82 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 77c | 162.67$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.98 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 21c | 154.04$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.73 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 27c | 153.31$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.49 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x342c…de11backed Yes | 8c | 150$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 172 | 41.9%72 W · 100 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 18c | 143.97$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.56 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…395bbacked Yes | 20c | 143.75$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.31 | 336 | 28.9%97 W · 239 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 78c | 136$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.92 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 73c | 133.64$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.73 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 78c | 132$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.57 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 68c | 128.58$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.64 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 32c | 123.76$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.57 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 16c | 120$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes | 20c | 120$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 231 | 29.4%68 W · 163 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 74c | 119.99$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.18 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 78c | 109.07$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.22 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 72c | 105$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.65 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 24c | 80.27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 74c | 75$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.55 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 29c | 74.85$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.53 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 27c | 73.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 75c | 73.13$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.31 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 26c | 73$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.83 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 76c | 70$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.83 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9290…3452backed Yes | 23c | 70$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 66c | 67.14$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.6 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc90d…c9d2backed No | 75c | 66$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 33c | 65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 71c | 63.58$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.25 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b50…4b87backed Yes | 27c | 62.09$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.71 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c1f…f53abacked Yes | 24c | 59.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -4.3wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 26c | 55.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 29c | 55.22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.74 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 78c | 55$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.35 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91c0…d4dabacked No | 75c | 54.09$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.42 | 53 | 81.1%43 W · 10 L | +8.5wins | +0.16per pick | 65cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 31c | 53.67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10ba…2f9abacked Yes | 35c | 52.76$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.42 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 72c | 45.49$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.81 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff89…dbffbacked Yes | 32c | 44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 77c | 42.93$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.96 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1f…eb96backed Yes | 32c | 40.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 231 | 46.3%107 W · 124 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed Yes | 37c | 40.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 335 | 50.4%169 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 79c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15b1…a8e8backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 163 | 35%57 W · 106 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 73c | 38.58$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.59 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 66c | 32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…3017backed No | 79c | 31.84$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.56 | 152 | 58.6%89 W · 63 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91f4…d093backed Yes | 33c | 31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 150 | 32%48 W · 102 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e16…7f14backed No | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 220 | 64.5%142 W · 78 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 70c | 23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 78c | 22.49$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 75c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 78c | 16.59$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.59 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0a…65abbacked No | 75c | 15.81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.95 | 338 | 76.6%259 W · 79 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 78cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x937e…953bbacked No | 78c | 15.01$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2706…c6bebacked No | 69c | 14.75$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.53 | 318 | 66%210 W · 108 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.6 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on August 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on August 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on August 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.