Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on August 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb15ab9e8069d0c9209ce675bb7635b94b0194d3359c4a54cc6f9d5376b8dcfed
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,948
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,394
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,948 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 101 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 26c | 377.96$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.27 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 74c | 327.68$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.02 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 41c | 319.98$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.57 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 13c | 278.96$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.3 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ff3…eb39backed No | 35c | 273.79$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.1 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 43c | 224.73$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.64 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 15c | 196.61$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.49 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 30c | 189.57$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.04 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 22c | 187.86$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.03 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 49c | 183.55$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.13 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e80…22b8backed Yes | 50c | 160.07$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.23 | 135 | 27.4%37 W · 98 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 51c | 160$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.05 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 77c | 157.2$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.94 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b9a…0f66backed Yes | 68c | 148.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.14 | 111 | 46.8%52 W · 59 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80c0…c4f6backed Yes | 77c | 130.11$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.11 | 195 | 59.5%116 W · 79 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8857…4b5bbacked Yes | 54c | 123.61$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.35 | 227 | 40.5%92 W · 135 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 70c | 123.45$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.98 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed No | 18c | 105.22$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed No | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf668…e47abacked No | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 181 | 31.5%57 W · 124 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Yes | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 170 | 28.8%49 W · 121 L | -12.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 64c | 98.95$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.83 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 31c | 98$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.53 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 73c | 97.91$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.38 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 41c | 92.12$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.22 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 45c | 91$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.78 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 16c | 89.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 44c | 88.93$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.09 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 26c | 86.28$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.27 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 204 | 52%106 W · 98 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 16c | 82.12$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 52c | 76$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.48 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 44c | 73.13$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.06 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 50c | 71$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 44c | 70$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.66 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd456…63a4backed Yes | 59c | 68.05$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.05 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 43c | 66.35$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.45 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 44c | 62.61$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.61 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccad…46ecbacked No | 26c | 62.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1468…0745backed Yes | 59c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 71c | 59.99$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.24 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe882…bf46backed Yes | 74c | 57.62$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 50c | 57.55$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.55 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 53c | 56.89$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.78 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0d…849cbacked No | 29c | 55.17$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 28c | 53.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 28c | 52.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x07b6…0ab8backed Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 136 | 36%49 W · 87 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb26d…73f7backed Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 252 | 61.9%156 W · 96 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed No | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef1b…764fbacked Yes | 60c | 49.81$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.81 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | +7.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked Yes | 73c | 49.67$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.41 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 289 | 46%133 W · 156 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc448…085ebacked No | 22c | 44.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 219 | 19.6%43 W · 176 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 37c | 44.39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.39 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 63c | 44$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.08 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3057…bf7bbacked Yes | 55c | 44$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…360ebacked No | 45c | 42.46$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.07 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | -34.5wins | -0.20per pick | 56cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 30-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x7010…f245backed Yes | 56c | 42.17$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.68 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68f2…97ccbacked Yes | 60c | 41.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f6…0be5backed No | 49c | 40.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 90 | 43.3%39 W · 51 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1dc…48fabacked Yes | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 122 | 38.5%47 W · 75 L | -10.6wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1f…eb96backed No | 44c | 39.19$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 231 | 46.3%107 W · 124 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 60c | 38.64$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.41 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0187…0200backed Yes | 54c | 36.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.78 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 48c | 36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02be…fb0ebacked No | 48c | 35.54$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.89 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed Yes | 56c | 35.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.68 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 46c | 35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3175…9bb2backed Yes | 54c | 33.83$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.63 | 166 | 42.8%71 W · 95 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe00b…f8a3backed Yes | 76c | 33.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 103 | 54.4%56 W · 47 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 59c | 32.43$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…a3a5backed Yes | 63c | 31.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 150 | 51.3%77 W · 73 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 40c | 31.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e1…c79cbacked Yes | 48c | 30.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 71 | 63.4%45 W · 26 L | +9.6wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbb62…d14fbacked Yes | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x471d…32cebacked Yes | 71c | 27.54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.91 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11b0…f988backed Yes | 72c | 27.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.63 | 155 | 56.1%87 W · 68 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacb0…4346backed Yes | 73c | 27.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.21 | 159 | 48.4%77 W · 82 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14af…887ebacked Yes | 62c | 25.37$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.54 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 43c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5e…35c9backed Yes | 54c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | -13.2wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked Yes | 52c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 77c | 24.35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25ee…2d2ebacked Yes | 63c | 22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +3.9wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 53c | 21.48$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.06 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x375b…0ebbbacked Yes | 62c | 20.97$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x868b…f600backed Yes | 73c | 20.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa05d…e9a8backed Yes | 58c | 20.12$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62c8…08d4backed Yes | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 293 | 54.3%159 W · 134 L | -25.6wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x63cc…eec5backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd98…1211backed Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 61c | 18.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2abe…6e2dbacked Yes | 73c | 18.21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 101 | 66.3%67 W · 34 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 71c | 14.09$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.09 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on August 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on August 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.