Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on July 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xde30dfdb5c8dea321c01c3d8f7808b4dc4f518eaee4083d3d9dc7ffa0e24428c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,072
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,226
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,072 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 18c | 277.46$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.82 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 7c | 275.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed Yes | 58c | 263.13$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.51 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed No | 5c | 255.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 45c | 251.71$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.52 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 24c | 206.8$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.39 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 48c | 194.19$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.44 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 76c | 181.81$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.2 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x775c…28a9backed No | 42c | 154$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.68 | 89 | 64%57 W · 32 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 47c | 150.05$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.05 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 48c | 142.73$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.12 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 47c | 141.04$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.46 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x515f…a606backed No | 42c | 134.99$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.7 | 175 | 53.1%93 W · 82 L | -8.3wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc89f…14a9backed Yes | 65c | 116.94$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 47c | 111.32$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.32 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 28c | 105$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.59 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 57c | 100.61$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.62 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 14c | 100.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 42c | 96.06$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.94 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 50c | 91.07$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.25 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 47c | 90.98$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.84 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 70c | 90$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.21 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b35…bb20backed Yes | 56c | 89.4$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.4 | 82 | 63.4%52 W · 30 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked No | 51c | 85.47$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.63 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 53c | 84.48$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.52 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb38…ae5fbacked No | 51c | 81.5$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.25 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d3b…0a43backed No | 32c | 70.76$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.66 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed5c…8cf8backed Yes | 49c | 70$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.7 | 259 | 35.1%91 W · 168 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 57c | 69.51$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.62 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 52c | 60.92$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.44 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 59.96$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.44 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 51c | 57.84$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.3 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x476e…00a9backed Yes | 61c | 56.67$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.1 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 54c | 55.32$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.32 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc865…7477backed No | 48c | 54.89$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.35 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -34.2wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x1049…8cc3backed No | 59c | 52.97$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.25 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3609…3a0bbacked Yes | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 82 | 45.1%37 W · 45 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 67c | 49.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked No | 28c | 49.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 47c | 47.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed No | 50c | 47.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.09 | 213 | 70.9%151 W · 62 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe7a…24f9backed Yes | 77c | 45.72$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.72 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 74cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1987…1d94backed Yes | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 83 | 48.2%40 W · 43 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 58c | 41.89$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.59 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 54c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 46c | 39.33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 55c | 35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 42c | 34.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 58c | 33.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.23 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 57c | 33.53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 41c | 31.86$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.87 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc6…d496backed No | 38c | 26.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2350…a351backed Yes | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +5.5wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 42c | 24.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee9c…3039backed No | 47c | 24.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +3.7wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed Yes | 53c | 22.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.91 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 61c | 22.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 72c | 20.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x8144…8472backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 239 | 58.2%139 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d0…d21ebacked Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 183 | 37.7%69 W · 114 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a7a…8465backed No | 51c | 19.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 50c | 19.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4947…a7b3backed No | 53c | 19.65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked No | 52c | 19.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe55…516ebacked Yes | 70c | 17.86$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.35 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…cd65backed Yes | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.16 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 72cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on July 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on July 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.