Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on August 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xde40310e55eff2a849f174ff40894c731ee6245d54adf7f5a7771dc753c255a5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,522
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,447
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,522 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 46c | 887.72$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475.89 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed No | 53c | 577.5$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.73 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 49c | 469.99$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.2 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 53c | 325.43$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.98 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 54c | 259.6$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.5 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8547…39abbacked Yes | 42c | 221.05$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.19 | 148 | 33.1%49 W · 99 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 50c | 219.57$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.69 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 48c | 198.19$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.73 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…2013backed No | 43c | 151.8$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.12 | 314 | 54.1%170 W · 144 L | +31.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc2bc…1485backed Yes | 52c | 150$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe240…7cb3backed No | 57c | 150$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.25 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 57c | 136.59$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe272…ccefbacked Yes | 39c | 128.41$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.41 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed Yes | 54c | 125.72$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.35 | 241 | 41.1%99 W · 142 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc1d…ead3backed Yes | 46c | 116$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.16 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes | 46c | 107$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.78 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked No | 57c | 100.01$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.18 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.6 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x500a…c8e4backed Yes | 48c | 94.2$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 20c | 90$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 41c | 77.98$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.97 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 20c | 76.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 55c | 74.91$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.57 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 62c | 66.27$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.19 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2572…80dbbacked Yes | 52c | 65.88$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.82 | 144 | 46.5%67 W · 77 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc800…4117backed Yes | 52c | 65$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe183…3e16backed Yes | 43c | 60$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.1 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 52c | 59.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.19 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x14a0…d8e3backed Yes | 43c | 51.81$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.67 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec3…d814backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.29 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 60c | 48.48$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.09 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 48c | 48.34$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.98 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 59c | 45.8$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.88 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 58c | 45.77$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.7 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed No | 73c | 45.12$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.79 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 47c | 43.74$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.69 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 25c | 43.32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.51 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 61c | 40.95$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.77 | 232 | 41.8%97 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 60c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 75c | 39.25$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa23b…b787backed Yes | 70c | 38.62$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.59 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 52c | 37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.76 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 56c | 35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 42c | 33.91$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 299 | 27.8%83 W · 216 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 59c | 33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…004ebacked Yes | 44c | 29.64$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.46 | 283 | 68.6%194 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 55c | 28.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 58c | 27.75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 61c | 26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 44c | 25.43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.19 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 45c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 60c | 23.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 49c | 22.65$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87ec…138fbacked No | 61c | 20.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 117 | 35.9%42 W · 75 L | -18.6wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 51c | 20.51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb8…7809backed No | 64c | 19.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 135 | 54.1%73 W · 62 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 61c | 19.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 293 | 54.3%159 W · 134 L | -25.6wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5615…0d83backed Yes | 60c | 16.75$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +67.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on August 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on August 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.