MLB · resolved market
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xde538243ca9c5bd31fd927b6f16c49ef8cf1aed2fcf2b686278d7335bb074022
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,388
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,375
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,388 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 40c | 3,370$1,336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,336.36 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 58c | 2,104$1,215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$889.88 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 58c | 2,033$1,177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$855.56 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Over | 55c | 1,920$1,055 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$864.98 | 866 | 53%459 W · 407 L | +16.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 43c | 1,538$666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$666.44 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Over | 56c | 1,328$744 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$584.25 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57b1…4b99backed Over | 58c | 1,034$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.48 | 175 | 46.9%82 W · 93 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 42c | 1,005$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.2 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Under | 42c | 1,000$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 43c | 600$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Under | 43c | 549.49$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.97 | 568 | 51.4%292 W · 276 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Over | 57c | 519.18$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.25 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Over | 75c | 495.17$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.87 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Under | 42c | 481.66$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.3 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 41c | 442.79$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.65 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d7…4084backed Under | 43c | 311.63$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 40c | 266$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.34 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 42c | 259.26$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.89 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 75c | 238.17$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.08 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Under | 42c | 197.67$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.02 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6717…d6ebbacked Over | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 372 | 56.5%210 W · 162 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked Under | 44c | 161.13$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.67 | 105 | 59%62 W · 43 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 33c | 158.98$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.73 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 53c | 129$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.63 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Over | 58c | 120.69$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.69 | 1,168 | 49%572 W · 596 L | +17.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 55c | 112.12$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.86 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 34c | 100.79$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.7 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 46c | 95.66$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0514…def7backed Over | 63c | 93.65$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.65 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Under | 43c | 93$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…5124backed Over | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 412 | 49.5%204 W · 208 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 57c | 54.13$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.09 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x392a…da0cbacked Over | 58c | 51.21$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.51 | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa05a…4635backed Under | 43c | 43.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 830 | 53%440 W · 390 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…11a3backed Over | 59c | 42.37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +7.2wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 46c | 42.19$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b2…6a58backed Over | 57c | 36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 127 | 53.5%68 W · 59 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2110…d4fbbacked Over | 56c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 209 | 62.7%131 W · 78 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4206…f874backed Over | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 73cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…6a0bbacked Under | 43c | 27.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 469 | 52.5%246 W · 223 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea10…a070backed Under | 40c | 26.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 300 | 48%144 W · 156 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30f6…004fbacked Under | 40c | 25.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 162 | 61.1%99 W · 63 L | +14.6wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +17%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Under | 45c | 22.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +28.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 58c | 20.28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Over | 62c | 19.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5this page
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh PiratesLos Angeles Dodgers won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 10.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 11.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 14.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 5.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 6.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-3.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh PiratesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.