NBA · resolved market
Raptors vs. Heat: O/U 228.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdeabd9036a03ec086999ec62ade5a88894db1b71ef83515b20075c13a692e87d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,269
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,926
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,269 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8767…d9d8backed Over | 49c | 20,000$9,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,799.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda05…1d07backed Under | 51c | 19,452$9,921 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,531.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 47c | 5,325$2,522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,522.37 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f9f…6ee5backed Under | 51c | 2,100$1,071 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,029 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd499…c6b7backed Over | 49c | 2,100$1,029 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,029 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1d…1e31backed Under | 52c | 2,000$1,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f0b…e970backed Over | 48c | 2,000$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$960 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.7wins | -0.29per pick | 52cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Under | 53c | 1,403$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$652.94 | 653 | 39.5%258 W · 395 L | -24.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Under | 53c | 1,064$564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.15 | 507 | 54.2%275 W · 232 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…0a77backed Under | 52c | 1,058$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$507.69 | 157 | 56.7%89 W · 68 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 53c | 689$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.83 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 51c | 500$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf395…8e3cbacked Under | 52c | 500$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 118 | 39.8%47 W · 71 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf332…3c89backed Under | 51c | 392.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.16 | 656 | 49.2%323 W · 333 L | +9.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 48c | 298$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.04 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff63…5aa1backed Over | 51c | 274.51$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa1a…d9abbacked Under | 53c | 226.62$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.62 | 83 | 44.6%37 W · 46 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 46c | 199.86$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.78 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb390…642bbacked Under | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 1,661 | 50.3%836 W · 825 L | -14.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa35b…0eccbacked Under | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 245 | 56.3%138 W · 107 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e46…0742backed Under | 53c | 132.74$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.74 | 239 | 48.5%116 W · 123 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae80…186cbacked Over | 49c | 122.45$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4dc…d394backed Under | 52c | 120$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.6 | 69 | 52.2%36 W · 33 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aff…c91bbacked Under | 52c | 119$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.12 | 90 | 50%45 W · 45 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a3…a380backed Under | 52c | 118$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.64 | 86 | 44.2%38 W · 48 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00fe…eff7backed Under | 52c | 110$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.8 | 85 | 52.9%45 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6996…ed71backed Over | 49c | 109.07$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c13…99b7backed Under | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 477 | 38.2%182 W · 295 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5631…bd3abacked Under | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 56 | 62.5%35 W · 21 L | +6.4wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x42bf…30f7backed Over | 51c | 89.8$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.8 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb81d…c6c0backed Under | 50c | 89$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.5 | 93 | 60.2%56 W · 37 L | +10.4wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x59b6…307fbacked Under | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.47 | 271 | 52%141 W · 130 L | -17.9wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d78…4756backed Over | 48c | 74$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.52 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27ed…57ebbacked Under | 50c | 68$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | +9.6wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1436…e23dbacked Under | 51c | 59$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.91 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc36…1b11backed Under | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 99 | 43.4%43 W · 56 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14cd…1716backed Over | 49c | 57$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.08 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7181…1b0abacked Under | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 249 | 55%137 W · 112 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Over | 48c | 46$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.08 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e29…c992backed Over | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 51 | 64.7%33 W · 18 L | +6.4wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2877…dc5bbacked Over | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -4.4wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa48…9062backed Over | 48c | 35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bec…6997backed Under | 50c | 35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62e6…f251backed Over | 48c | 35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00f6…c5d2backed Over | 50c | 34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb7…8745backed Over | 50c | 34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb520…60bcbacked Over | 48c | 32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa27…dbdcbacked Over | 48c | 32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7563…1fb3backed Under | 50c | 31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd568…655ebacked Over | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 48c | 29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe11a…d47ebacked Over | 48c | 29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf5…840ebacked Over | 50c | 28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -3.0wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x78a4…05afbacked Over | 50c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5266…ddaebacked Over | 48c | 21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf33d…1969backed Over | 48c | 21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Raptors vs. Heat: O/U 228.5this page
- 1H Spread: Heat (-3.5)Raptors won
- Raptors vs. HeatRaptors won
- Raptors vs. Heat: 1H MoneylineRaptors won
- Raptors vs. Heat: O/U 229.5Under won
- Spread: Heat (-3.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Heat (-4.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Heat (-5.5)Raptors won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.