NBA · resolved market
Spread: Heat (-5.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x83daf56e8f733435749033f43d0cf34f6bf9866ddc33332848a63a0fb1f608cf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Raptorsof Heat, Raptors
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $62,206
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $62,861
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,206 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8c20…7d4fbacked Heat | 50c | 16,000$8,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,000 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68dd…f0b2backed Heat | 51c | 15,000$7,650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,649.99 | 513 | 50.1%257 W · 256 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb889…a430backed Raptors | 49c | 14,061$6,890 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,171.07 | 92 | 63%58 W · 34 L | +9.8wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…1a5dbacked Raptors | 50c | 13,000$6,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,500 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -4.1wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc29e…a2cabacked Heat | 50c | 9,162$4,581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,581.02 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Raptors | 50c | 6,213$3,107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,106.52 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…fde0backed Raptors | 50c | 5,048$2,512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,535.4 | 517 | 53.8%278 W · 239 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…1b96backed Raptors | 50c | 4,628$2,314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,314 | 240 | 51.3%123 W · 117 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca3…45b2backed Raptors | 49c | 4,355$2,134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,220.78 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Raptors | 50c | 3,361$1,681 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,680.5 | 1,212 | 48.3%586 W · 626 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9315…a744backed Raptors | 50c | 3,000$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,500 | 67 | 67.2%45 W · 22 L | +10.7wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xbf51…4a30backed Heat | 51c | 2,941$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 767 | 46.4%356 W · 411 L | -16.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc63…f1c7backed Heat | 50c | 2,805$1,403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,402.5 | 506 | 53.2%269 W · 237 L | +8.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Heat | 49c | 1,563$766 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$765.87 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Heat | 50c | 1,200$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 672 | 52.7%354 W · 318 L | +15.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f3…d99cbacked Heat | 50c | 1,200$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 485 | 46.4%225 W · 260 L | -14.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Heat | 51c | 1,018$518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$518 | 507 | 54.2%275 W · 232 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd5…26ccbacked Raptors | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510 | 516 | 51%263 W · 253 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Heat | 49c | 612$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.88 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa61f…7993backed Raptors | 51c | 500$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245 | 617 | 47.8%295 W · 322 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Heat | 51c | 483.31$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.49 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2249…3005backed Raptors | 51c | 443.14$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.14 | 89 | 70.8%63 W · 26 L | +7.7wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +11%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Heat | 49c | 409.75$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.56 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Heat | 49c | 400$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196 | 503 | 46.5%234 W · 269 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1748…a816backed Heat | 50c | 342$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171 | 173 | 44.5%77 W · 96 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…4f9cbacked Raptors | 49c | 306.12$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.12 | 155 | 43.2%67 W · 88 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Raptors | 48c | 283.85$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.6 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…dca3backed Raptors | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 150 | 52.7%79 W · 71 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfc3…93bbbacked Raptors | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe42…9222backed Heat | 52c | 171.15$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…b1b1backed Heat | 51c | 110.59$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.4 | 78 | 43.6%34 W · 44 L | -4.8wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Heat | 49c | 103.96$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.94 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c90…272cbacked Raptors | 51c | 103.96$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.94 | 69 | 47.8%33 W · 36 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cb…85babacked Heat | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 522 | 42.7%223 W · 299 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38db…d245backed Raptors | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 100 | 58%58 W · 42 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d29…4083backed Heat | 50c | 90$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 173 | 41%71 W · 102 L | -10.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4dde…3752backed Heat | 50c | 81$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f88…ca51backed Raptors | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 135 | 36.3%49 W · 86 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Heat | 49c | 77$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.73 | 1,444 | 58.1%839 W · 605 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbb…acb2backed Heat | 50c | 73$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 890 | 50.4%449 W · 441 L | +4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4254…b8d2backed Raptors | 51c | 70$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.3 | 51 | 60.8%31 W · 20 L | +5.0wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x70df…bca8backed Raptors | 51c | 68.63$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.63 | 327 | 50.2%164 W · 163 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Raptors | 48c | 67.53$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.12 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…5733backed Heat | 52c | 63.46$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe70c…c938backed Raptors | 51c | 60.78$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.78 | 745 | 47.2%352 W · 393 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e47…a7abbacked Raptors | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 498 | 52.4%261 W · 237 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ab7…180ebacked Raptors | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11e7…6d5cbacked Raptors | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -4.4wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -19%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Raptors | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.53 | 1,389 | 54.9%762 W · 627 L | +16.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0c7…5861backed Raptors | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 516 | 51.2%264 W · 252 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7590…d6e0backed Heat | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf54a…e25dbacked Raptors | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 157 | 52.2%82 W · 75 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd75b…f7b2backed Raptors | 50c | 43$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.29per pick | 47cpaid | +57.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Heat | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x552e…a856backed Heat | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce49…4740backed Heat | 50c | 39.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 236 | 42.4%100 W · 136 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe26b…a9ecbacked Heat | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08cc…da60backed Heat | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe5…8449backed Raptors | 49c | 28.57$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.57 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…152cbacked Raptors | 51c | 24.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 484 | 51.2%248 W · 236 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Heat | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf15b…4b51backed Heat | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Heat (-5.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Heat (-3.5)Raptors won
- Raptors vs. HeatRaptors won
- Raptors vs. Heat: 1H MoneylineRaptors won
- Raptors vs. Heat: O/U 228.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Heat: O/U 229.5Under won
- Spread: Heat (-3.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Heat (-4.5)Raptors won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.