NBA · resolved market
Spread: Heat (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa6f6a806728caaf3d42731b8dd3993221636911a8a035d034a58eb7b70a32670
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Raptorsof Heat, Raptors
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,200
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,764
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,200 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Raptors | 44c | 8,563$3,772 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,791.09 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d48…66abbacked Heat | 56c | 8,189$4,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,600 | 126 | 51.6%65 W · 61 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Raptors | 44c | 2,624$1,163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,460.72 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…9120backed Heat | 54c | 2,000$1,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,080 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -30%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x39b8…e3dabacked Heat | 54c | 2,000$1,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,080 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4db…309dbacked Raptors | 46c | 2,000$920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,080 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde19…8e43backed Raptors | 46c | 2,000$920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,080 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +20%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x443d…017fbacked Heat | 55c | 1,615$888 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$888 | 235 | 50.2%118 W · 117 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe071…2d1abacked Heat | 55c | 1,200$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660 | 489 | 57.5%281 W · 208 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Raptors | 45c | 1,073$479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$594.23 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…0a77backed Heat | 55c | 1,067$585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585 | 157 | 56.7%89 W · 68 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25f4…20e0backed Heat | 56c | 708.02$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 152 | 44.1%67 W · 85 L | -14.4wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Heat | 32c | 702.22$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.68 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Raptors | 45c | 309.04$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.97 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Heat | 55c | 295.92$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.55 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Raptors | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.39 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Raptors | 46c | 200$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 1,197 | 47.5%569 W · 628 L | -32.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe05…b5a5backed Heat | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 332 | 46.1%153 W · 179 L | -12.1wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x079f…db87backed Heat | 55c | 145.45$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Raptors | 48c | 120.71$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.77 | 762 | 47.1%359 W · 403 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbb…1594backed Raptors | 45c | 114$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.7 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa521…4599backed Raptors | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 75 | 57.3%43 W · 32 L | +6.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x45d2…22fbbacked Heat | 56c | 98.93$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 113 | 48.7%55 W · 58 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1393…8392backed Raptors | 45c | 93$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.15 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48a9…0d53backed Raptors | 45c | 76$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.8 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72e4…0369backed Raptors | 48c | 63.31$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.92 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a3…a380backed Raptors | 45c | 57$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.35 | 86 | 44.2%38 W · 48 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ff…af12backed Heat | 56c | 53.9$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 136 | 51.5%70 W · 66 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacd8…b9f6backed Heat | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe829…a4aabacked Heat | 55c | 43$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.65 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -6.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Raptors | 45c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5266…ddaebacked Heat | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe56e…0bb4backed Heat | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 242 | 48.3%117 W · 125 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x699c…3600backed Raptors | 45c | 37$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.35 | 80 | 52.5%42 W · 38 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ad2…d17fbacked Heat | 55c | 37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Heat | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf8a…4de3backed Heat | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7bd…d82dbacked Heat | 55c | 34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -6.0wins | -0.21per pick | 53cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc7…31c0backed Heat | 55c | 31.96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.58 | 87 | 46%40 W · 47 L | -5.7wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3a…9bdbbacked Heat | 55c | 31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0068…d7b0backed Heat | 55c | 31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -6.0wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7f33…8f17backed Heat | 55c | 31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xede6…89c4backed Heat | 55c | 31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Raptors | 46c | 29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.66 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Raptors | 57c | 25.01$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.72 | 526 | 43%226 W · 300 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e44…3cefbacked Heat | 55c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62f0…afe6backed Heat | 55c | 19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Heat (-4.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Heat (-3.5)Raptors won
- Raptors vs. HeatRaptors won
- Raptors vs. Heat: 1H MoneylineRaptors won
- Raptors vs. Heat: O/U 228.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Heat: O/U 229.5Under won
- Spread: Heat (-3.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Heat (-5.5)Raptors won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.