Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 13°C on April 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdee8a2c486bf558d2064fe14c61bc8d7e5ce1b02408d66bd3a2e95a71e717e82
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,429
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,098
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,429 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 24c | 857.32$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.2 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 66c | 302.98$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.01 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc8…2389backed Yes | 33c | 204.77$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.68 | 171 | 56.7%97 W · 74 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 27c | 200$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.43 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59d4…b745backed Yes | 26c | 196.36$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.58 | 275 | 40%110 W · 165 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 34c | 175.15$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.27 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 72c | 145.87$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.83 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52a4…ca72backed Yes | 26c | 142.78$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.43 | 66 | 31.8%21 W · 45 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbc3…37b9backed No | 71c | 132.13$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.32 | 74 | 64.9%48 W · 26 L | +5.8wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 131.79$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.03 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 18c | 131.31$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.01 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 9c | 125.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5548…9cc6backed Yes | 10c | 122.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 197 | 57.4%113 W · 84 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85ed…372fbacked No | 80c | 122.5$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca1…17e5backed No | 80c | 116.25$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.25 | 153 | 28.1%43 W · 110 L | +10.0wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 68c | 108$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.05 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x322c…1366backed Yes | 17c | 107.88$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.34 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +3.4wins | +0.21per pick | 35cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 34c | 103.9$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.25 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 75c | 97.5$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.37 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 72c | 97.31$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.54 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9387…d659backed Yes | 32c | 97.16$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.09 | 271 | 30.6%83 W · 188 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf955…30b3backed Yes | 22c | 95.81$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.08 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes | 25c | 90.65$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.66 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 72c | 74.13$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.64 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 25c | 69.91$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 72c | 64.35$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…4145backed Yes | 22c | 55.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 67 | 16.4%11 W · 56 L | -7.6wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5005…620cbacked No | 74c | 52.45$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.47 | 59 | 61%36 W · 23 L | -6.8wins | -0.12per pick | 73cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x79f4…df03backed Yes | 30c | 52.28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2060…9e6cbacked No | 75c | 51.89$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 47 | 66%31 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…4e36backed No | 76c | 51.4$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.37 | 197 | 72.6%143 W · 54 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e3…f004backed Yes | 25c | 49.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 277 | 32.5%90 W · 187 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked No | 75c | 49.38$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.34 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 25c | 47.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 73c | 44.67$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.11 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 77c | 40.64$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.18 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xbf33…5d4fbacked Yes | 26c | 39.82$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -4.0wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc52a…e37abacked No | 75c | 39.02$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 182 | 72%131 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 75c | 36.29$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.01 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d22…245cbacked Yes | 29c | 36.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 60 | 26.7%16 W · 44 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x440c…8dccbacked Yes | 34c | 35.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 96 | 35.4%34 W · 62 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 73c | 33.68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.98 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 72c | 33.33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.33 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea0d…c1b6backed No | 74c | 32.08$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.47 | 216 | 76.4%165 W · 51 L | +12.5wins | +0.06per pick | 71cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f7b…bc29backed No | 73c | 28.56$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.79 | 146 | 66.4%97 W · 49 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8208…a737backed No | 75c | 27.75$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.92 | 226 | 75.7%171 W · 55 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b3b…0353backed No | 76c | 25.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.17 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed No | 66c | 21.74$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabee…ab7dbacked No | 68c | 20.36$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 83 | 60.2%50 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc52f…0981backed No | 74c | 19.89$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.17 | 146 | 71.2%104 W · 42 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…3587backed No | 77c | 19.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.55 | 273 | 76.6%209 W · 64 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 76cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87de…c545backed No | 70c | 18.78$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 19 | 84.2%16 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.13per pick | 71cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 71c | 18.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.33 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b7…8030backed No | 74c | 17.96$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 125 | 64.8%81 W · 44 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 76c | 17.39$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.17 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a9…2227backed No | 73c | 15.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 71 | 73.2%52 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked No | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf075…3f43backed No | 72c | 14.89$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.17 | 108 | 66.7%72 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325e…5308backed No | 77c | 14.02$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.28 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2dba…5b01backed No | 73c | 13.9$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 57 | 66.7%38 W · 19 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 72cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 13°C on April 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 12°C on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on April 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on April 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.