TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x79f4…df03

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
41
Categories scored
17
Categories below 50
10

Best Category: Ukraine, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Ukraine at 54 out of 100; worst MLB at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 17, 2026, EDT1942.1%8 W · 11 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+218.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 19 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+156.4%+$39.1
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+100%+$37.5
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.07
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$15.32
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$61Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+43.8%+$26.86
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT+2,878.3%+$413.77
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.22
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT+25.3%+$7.97
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 19, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT+31.3%+$12.05
Will Iran strike Iraq by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$150
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.96
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT+1,958.5%+$317.44
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.58
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.02
All 19 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Apr 28, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Weather — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Apr 12, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will SC Heerenveen win on 2026-04-12?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT+37%+$6.66
Will Fortuna Sittard win on 2026-04-12?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$9.69
All 2 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved May 12, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick28cpaid-5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$44.34
Will Trump visit China by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.09
All 2 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Apr 17, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+19%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NHL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Kings vs. Flamesbacked Flames · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT+138.1%+$20.71
Jets vs. Golden Knightsbacked Jets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
All 2 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Apr 12, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
MLB — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Dodgersbacked Texas Rangers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.69
Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego Padresbacked Colorado Rockies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.42
All 2 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.89per pick11cpaid+809.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+809.1%+$202.27
All 1 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Apr 12, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
UFC — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC 327: Curtis Blaydes vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card)backed Josh Hokit · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$15.51
All 1 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jun 30, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+66.9%+$33.47
All 1 picks, newest first.
Golf Inactivelast resolved Apr 12, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Golf — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Golf, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 Masters tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.4
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Apr 7, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Connecticut win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$37.31
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Apr 29, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.36
All 1 picks, newest first.
Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Apr 10, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will annual inflation increase by ≥2.8% in March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$52.62
All 1 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Apr 10, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Xi Jinping meet with Cheng Li-wun by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.9
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Aug 4, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Al Mina be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.37
All 1 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved May 12, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
Asian League Inactivelast resolved Apr 12, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Asian League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Asian League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Beijing Guoan FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$18
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.