Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 39°C on July 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdef5064bef4c69175d287959328b2ae5db85c850de5e4fe10a79d419dc08a956
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,653
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,850
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,653 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 14c | 729.99$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.2 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 67c | 709.11$478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.58 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa760…2c51backed Yes | 31c | 421.59$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.62 | 212 | 64.6%137 W · 75 L | +14.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef32…265cbacked No | 69c | 289$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.09 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 65c | 285.72$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.72 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed No | 64c | 282.09$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.14 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 24c | 227.15$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.17 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 16c | 225.51$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.44 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 77c | 188.73$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.73 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29e9…8be2backed Yes | 35c | 157.34$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.55 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 35c | 149$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.45 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 23c | 143.05$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.02 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 72c | 139.16$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.28 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 72c | 118.36$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.14 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 71c | 109.86$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.68 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 35c | 108.12$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.08 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 36c | 106.12$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.3 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab7…dd3bbacked Yes | 38c | 99.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 36c | 99.94$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.73 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed Yes | 15c | 95.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 72c | 91.93$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.39 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x599c…e29bbacked Yes | 24c | 90.92$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 76c | 81.79$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 79c | 80$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.41 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 67c | 77.92$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.34 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3910…ba74backed Yes | 30c | 64.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e15…0cc5backed Yes | 58c | 60$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.64 | 106 | 31.1%33 W · 73 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 23c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 76c | 59.51$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.51 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed Yes | 21c | 58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 21c | 53.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 22c | 53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcabe…b95bbacked Yes | 22c | 53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 29c | 51.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75c2…e8c7backed Yes | 29c | 49.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -34%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeac2…7e41backed Yes | 29c | 49.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 29cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed Yes | 34c | 40.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 27c | 38.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ea…c336backed Yes | 58c | 38.25$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.22 | 84 | 54.8%46 W · 38 L | +7.8wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed No | 68c | 36.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.86 | 244 | 51.2%125 W · 119 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked Yes | 42c | 33.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked No | 70c | 32.51$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.83 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea21…f753backed Yes | 36c | 31.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | +18.8wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 63c | 31.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 52c | 31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.82 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed Yes | 33c | 30.39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93a6…b1c2backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 105 | 47.6%50 W · 55 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd774…0f87backed No | 71c | 29.97$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed No | 67c | 27.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.33 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 66c | 27.98$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.51 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4af9…3144backed No | 66c | 27.98$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.51 | 219 | 50.7%111 W · 108 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 75c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 76c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked No | 67c | 22.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.53 | 74 | 70.3%52 W · 22 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 72c | 22.43$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 75c | 21.29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.34 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbefc…58febacked No | 72c | 20.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 65 | 64.6%42 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d3…a178backed No | 62c | 20.37$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.79 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…4534backed No | 59c | 20.26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.31 | 257 | 47.5%122 W · 135 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5c…a240backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 195 | 52.8%103 W · 92 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…5d00backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.53 | 103 | 45.6%47 W · 56 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 69c | 19.68$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 76c | 17.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.27 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1dc…4f72backed No | 64c | 16.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.85 | 241 | 64.7%156 W · 85 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed No | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 39°C on July 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 36°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 37°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 38°C on July 10?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 40°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 41°C on July 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.