Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 38°C on July 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8bd91261047cbe7ec040fb746c34f62fe001a5c956262abf6691ccd60430c16b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,256
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,441
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,256 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x189e…89d9backed Yes | 27c | 2,825$760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,064.53 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 75c | 1,709$1,279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,279.47 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed No | 3c | 1,087$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.67 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 76c | 679.64$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$514.22 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 27c | 630$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459.9 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7966…b251backed Yes | 29c | 455$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.05 | 143 | 59.4%85 W · 58 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 25c | 350.95$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.12 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 23c | 300.58$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.99 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 22c | 292.84$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.13 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 15c | 291.8$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.99 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 50c | 231.46$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.27 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 63c | 211.41$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.73 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 8c | 210$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb5…dfcabacked Yes | 71c | 199.91$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.2 | 239 | 51%122 W · 117 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 26c | 198.28$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.33 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 52c | 166.5$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.21 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 71c | 166.18$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.58 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cae…559abacked No | 77c | 151.21$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.27 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe39f…c040backed Yes | 74c | 144.92$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.1 | 148 | 32.4%48 W · 100 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked Yes | 39c | 136.76$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.76 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3024backed Yes | 33c | 132.81$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.22 | 241 | 39.8%96 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd2…9ab1backed No | 13c | 129$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 91 | 53.8%49 W · 42 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 28c | 120$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.4 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 35c | 117.47$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.82 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 10c | 116.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 28c | 115.92$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.04 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 78c | 115.81$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.48 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 32c | 110.84$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.98 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 72c | 110$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.6 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74d5…195bbacked Yes | 23c | 108.7$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.7 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 39c | 108.11$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.91 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf361…783abacked No | 26c | 106.8$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.59 | 77 | 63.6%49 W · 28 L | +6.8wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 30c | 105.64$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.88 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 68c | 102.49$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 24c | 97.3$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.9 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd746…2c6fbacked Yes | 23c | 88.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.11 | 147 | 46.9%69 W · 78 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…7a5dbacked Yes | 69c | 80$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.7 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked No | 67c | 79.5$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.22 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21f4…81a6backed No | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 115 | 19.1%22 W · 93 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 44c | 65.31$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked No | 74c | 65$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.4 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 75c | 62.54$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.73 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xceb7…85f2backed No | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 21 | 81%17 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 72cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 70c | 60.73$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.93 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xcd1e…862ebacked No | 21c | 59.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 87 | 27.6%24 W · 63 L | -10.0wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed Yes | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.82 | 301 | 36.9%111 W · 190 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 28c | 57.12$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.2 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35b6…caadbacked No | 55c | 56.91$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.36 | 43 | 69.8%30 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 23c | 51.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.35 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 24c | 51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.76 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 67c | 50.01$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.76 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75c2…e8c7backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -34%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 65c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeac2…7e41backed Yes | 26c | 49.19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.3 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 29cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 23c | 49$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.73 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 64c | 48.82$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.08 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7a…07a0backed No | 63c | 47.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.81 | 90 | 66.7%60 W · 30 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa09d…af80backed No | 67c | 42.76$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.45 | 211 | 50.7%107 W · 104 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…5d00backed No | 29c | 41.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 103 | 45.6%47 W · 56 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x599c…e29bbacked Yes | 32c | 40.94$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.98 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaab7…dd3bbacked Yes | 77c | 40.22$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 33c | 38.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.68 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 33c | 33.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.06 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 67c | 32.82$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 72c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 317 | 66.9%212 W · 105 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 74c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.23 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9291…8a20backed No | 72c | 29.72$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 65cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…95f5backed No | 77c | 28.26$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5938…7788backed Yes | 70c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x116d…fbf1backed Yes | 56c | 25.37$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.11 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +20.1wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 67c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 64c | 24.71$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked No | 64c | 24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes | 78c | 19.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.24 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4149…44c4backed No | 68c | 15.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 154 | 49.4%76 W · 78 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac71…f74cbacked No | 77c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 89 | 62.9%56 W · 33 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 77c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.99 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 38°C on July 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 36°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 37°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 39°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 40°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 41°C on July 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.