TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 38°C on July 10?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$23,256
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$25,441

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,256 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x189e…89d9backed Yes27c2,825$760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,064.5329345.1%132 W · 161 L-10.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked No75c1,709$1,279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,279.472,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x652d…46b3backed No3c1,087$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.6761820.7%128 W · 490 L+36.9wins+0.06per pick15cpaid-7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No76c679.64$514 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$514.222,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c57…372dbacked Yes27c630$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$459.91,53124.2%371 W · 1,160 L+15.4wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7966…b251backed Yes29c455$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$323.0514359.4%85 W · 58 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd498…a6c5backed Yes25c350.95$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264.121,71047.8%818 W · 892 L-48.2wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No23c300.58$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.9912,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No22c292.84$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.134,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No15c291.8$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.994,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes50c231.46$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.273,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x164c…3e39backed Yes63c211.41$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.731,03451.3%530 W · 504 L+69.5wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+14%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No8c210$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.16,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4bb5…dfcabacked Yes71c199.91$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.223951%122 W · 117 L-9.1wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-10.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes26c198.28$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.338,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes52c166.5$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.216,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No71c166.18$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.589,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cae…559abacked No77c151.21$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.272857.1%16 W · 12 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick64cpaid-8.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe39f…c040backed Yes74c144.92$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.114832.4%48 W · 100 L+8.4wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+7.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5f61…840abacked Yes39c136.76$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.7637570.7%265 W · 110 L+62.7wins+0.17per pick54cpaid+32.8%equal weight67+0.16 edge/pick
0xed29…3024backed Yes33c132.81$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.2224139.8%96 W · 145 L+10.8wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+11.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3dd2…9ab1backed No13c129$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.779153.8%49 W · 42 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-3.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes28c120$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.41,22733.9%416 W · 811 L+45.1wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7956…eba5backed Yes35c117.47$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.821,04838.1%399 W · 649 L-3.8wins0.00per pick38cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2349…1646backed No10c116.03$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3948261.8%298 W · 184 L+43.5wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+12.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd3b8…6983backed Yes28c115.92$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.0487437.3%326 W · 548 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6868…5198backed Yes78c115.81$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.481,40127.3%383 W · 1,018 L+69.5wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+18.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9418…e9f8backed Yes32c110.84$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.981,10830%332 W · 776 L-38.1wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-13.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No72c110$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.63,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x74d5…195bbacked Yes23c108.7$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.73228.1%9 W · 23 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-30.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3e0b…0020backed Yes39c108.11$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.9138930.3%118 W · 271 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf361…783abacked No26c106.8$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.597763.6%49 W · 28 L+6.8wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+14.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes30c105.64$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.884,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1570…de29backed No68c102.49$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7044058.2%256 W · 184 L+14.1wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+12.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes24c97.3$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.93,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd746…2c6fbacked Yes23c88.26$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.1114746.9%69 W · 78 L+7.2wins+0.05per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x15ce…7a5dbacked Yes69c80$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.73560%21 W · 14 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick66cpaid-14.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x802d…d59abacked No67c79.5$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.221,29841.7%541 W · 757 L+53.2wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x21f4…81a6backed No26c76.92$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2011519.1%22 W · 93 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-26.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No44c65.31$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.72,30226.9%620 W · 1,682 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1fcc…701bbacked No74c65$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.443559.8%260 W · 175 L+20.7wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+7.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb57e…0b91backed No75c62.54$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.7346457.5%267 W · 197 L-12.6wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xceb7…85f2backed No80c62.5$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502181%17 W · 4 L+1.9wins+0.09per pick72cpaid+16.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes70c60.73$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.9312,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xcd1e…862ebacked No21c59.65$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.258727.6%24 W · 63 L-10.0wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-54.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x0428…7d12backed Yes34c58.82$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.8230136.9%111 W · 190 L-8.5wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes28c57.12$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.22,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x35b6…caadbacked No55c56.91$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.364369.8%30 W · 13 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick69cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes23c51.34$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.3596015%144 W · 816 L+9.2wins+0.01per pick14cpaid+4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0982…24e3backed Yes24c51$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.7635137.9%133 W · 218 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9eda…6e19backed No67c50.01$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.7677555.2%428 W · 347 L-13.9wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x75c2…e8c7backed Yes28c50$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$363336.4%12 W · 21 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-34%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb615…62b9backed Yes23c50$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.560550.7%307 W · 298 L-15.0wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes30c50$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3570148.4%339 W · 362 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x508d…791abacked Yes26c50$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3754253%287 W · 255 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75cc…6b15backed No65c50$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.51,18149.4%583 W · 598 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeac2…7e41backed Yes26c49.19$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.3742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.14per pick29cpaid+52.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed Yes23c49$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.734,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No64c48.82$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.083,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f7a…07a0backed No63c47.48$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.819066.7%60 W · 30 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+4.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa09d…af80backed No67c42.76$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.4521150.7%107 W · 104 L+6.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+23.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbe44…5d00backed No29c41.37$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9210345.6%47 W · 56 L-8.3wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-23.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x599c…e29bbacked Yes32c40.94$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.982842.9%12 W · 16 L+3.1wins+0.11per pick32cpaid+36.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xaab7…dd3bbacked Yes77c40.22$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.2515940.3%64 W · 95 L+0.5wins0.00per pick40cpaid-9.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc3a…3df7backed No75c40$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3045253.3%241 W · 211 L-1.7wins0.00per pick54cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes33c38.33$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.682,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes33c33.1$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.062,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ce3…4291backed Yes67c32.82$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.922,16523.8%516 W · 1,649 L+83.8wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2a20…89d2backed No72c30$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.631766.9%212 W · 105 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No74c30$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.235,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9291…8a20backed No72c29.72$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.41353.8%7 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.11per pick65cpaid-20.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x437b…95f5backed No77c28.26$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.7624546.9%115 W · 130 L-12.6wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-12.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5938…7788backed Yes70c28$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.443262.5%20 W · 12 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+11%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x116d…fbf1backed Yes56c25.37$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.1117859%105 W · 73 L+20.1wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+26.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No67c25$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.755,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xea83…7393backed No64c24.71$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.931,44560.1%868 W · 577 L+5.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f4a…f61bbacked No64c24$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.3654547.7%260 W · 285 L-18.9wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-12.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes80c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41,31376.1%999 W · 314 L+20.9wins+0.02per pick74cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfaf3…782cbacked No63c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.61,87663%1,181 W · 695 L+0.3wins0.00per pick63cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba63…36dcbacked No69c20$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.740237.1%149 W · 253 L-8.8wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes78c19.28$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.2434748.7%169 W · 178 L+13.5wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+8.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4149…44c4backed No68c15.6$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5415449.4%76 W · 78 L+4.5wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xac71…f74cbacked No77c15$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.598962.9%56 W · 33 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick61cpaid-2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd24b…187dbacked Yes77c13$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.9961365.3%400 W · 213 L+43.8wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+15.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.