TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs Team WE (+2.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Team WEof Bilibili Gaming, Team WE
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$326,589
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$388,899

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $326,589 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 199 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe015…6ffdbacked Bilibili Gaming57c135,683$76,799 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76,799.4996048.8%468 W · 492 L+13.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8fbb…9a17backed Team WE43c79,717$34,582 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45,134.7225143.4%109 W · 142 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-14.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2307…3934backed Team WE43c30,000$12,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,10054353.8%292 W · 251 L+32.6wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+15.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5286…0d47backed Bilibili Gaming55c27,500$15,125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,124.9827637.3%103 W · 173 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac47…d234backed Team WE45c23,446$10,551 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,895.34231%13 W · 29 L-4.5wins-0.11per pick42cpaid-26.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x1136…0c2ebacked Bilibili Gaming50c18,865$9,433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,432.5514448.6%70 W · 74 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x183f…85e3backed Bilibili Gaming54c10,500$5,670 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,669.991,09153.8%587 W · 504 L+38.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x751b…73fdbacked Team WE44c10,000$4,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,60032555.7%181 W · 144 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Team WE43c9,479$4,056 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,423.0590348.4%437 W · 466 L+14.5wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3cf6…0cbdbacked Team WE50c8,675$4,332 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,342.811938.7%46 W · 73 L-9.0wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-18.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x21df…7078backed Team WE50c8,635$4,317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,318.21060%6 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+36.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x54a6…7401backed Team WE45c7,012$3,129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,882.9152750.5%266 W · 261 L+13.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x52a6…ab62backed Team WE45c6,555$2,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,605.3113831.2%43 W · 95 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x76cf…9452backed Team WE44c6,173$2,716 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,457.0310941.3%45 W · 64 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa7df…5eeebacked Bilibili Gaming55c5,906$3,234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,234.1214549.7%72 W · 73 L+6.6wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+13.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd02a…4771backed Team WE46c5,869$2,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,169.3519232.8%63 W · 129 L-17.2wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-23.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd408…e85cbacked Bilibili Gaming56c5,357$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,00038462%238 W · 146 L-0.4wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x76b4…ca9bbacked Bilibili Gaming56c4,625$2,573 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,573.4844550.1%223 W · 222 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-8.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba67…4727backed Team WE43c4,565$1,966 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,599.0929952.2%156 W · 143 L+13.9wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x462d…ce9bbacked Team WE45c4,444$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,444.448453.6%45 W · 39 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x003b…ace5backed Team WE50c4,030$2,015 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,015.322661.5%16 W · 10 L+4.2wins+0.16per pick45cpaid+54.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6b97…8d30backed Bilibili Gaming52c3,657$1,913 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,913.2459554.1%322 W · 273 L+14.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfed1…eedbbacked Team WE46c3,470$1,610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,859.77030%21 W · 49 L-8.4wins-0.12per pick42cpaid-34.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xe988…8343backed Team WE49c3,413$1,672 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,740.831741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick48cpaid+28.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9560…9467backed Bilibili Gaming50c3,000$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50020454.9%112 W · 92 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4379…2e16backed Team WE45c3,000$1,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,65015046%69 W · 81 L+0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae5e…13bebacked Bilibili Gaming51c2,960$1,510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,509.649541.6%206 W · 289 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb1b…69f2backed Team WE43c2,768$1,193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,574.8224650%123 W · 123 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdfaf…d959backed Team WE45c2,623$1,180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,442.916246.8%29 W · 33 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2fcb…78cfbacked Bilibili Gaming56c2,600$1,456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,45664749.9%323 W · 324 L-24.9wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe52c…01f4backed Bilibili Gaming55c2,500$1,375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3753250%16 W · 16 L+4.0wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+31.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbb6c…d38ebacked Team WE45c2,418$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,318.2212850%64 W · 64 L-6.6wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-8.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdbbb…3df5backed Bilibili Gaming51c2,393$1,220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,220.4330151.5%155 W · 146 L+11.3wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cd2…f5c4backed Bilibili Gaming56c2,357$1,320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3201668.8%11 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick62cpaid+16.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc700…31a1backed Team WE46c2,220$1,021 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,198.85145.1%23 W · 28 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b75…6bb0backed Bilibili Gaming56c2,200$1,232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,23210237.3%38 W · 64 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+21.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb209…b744backed Team WE44c2,020$889 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,131.26243.5%27 W · 35 L+4.7wins+0.08per pick36cpaid+49.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x66e5…d3c7backed Bilibili Gaming56c2,000$1,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,119.9946257.8%267 W · 195 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x48b8…4b69backed Bilibili Gaming54c1,516$819 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$818.710648.1%51 W · 55 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdfa8…cae6backed Bilibili Gaming56c1,500$840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84082953.4%443 W · 386 L-3.7wins0.00per pick54cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa644…026ebacked Team WE49c1,460$715 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$744.62556%14 W · 11 L+2.8wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+12.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc754…4b1dbacked Team WE46c1,348$624 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$723.9424535.9%88 W · 157 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7786…c005backed Team WE44c1,341$595 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$745.3922536.9%83 W · 142 L-11.4wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-19%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdbca…ca8dbacked Team WE45c1,333$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$733.3310049%49 W · 51 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x24d4…4e1dbacked Team WE45c1,324$596 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$728.127142.4%115 W · 156 L-15.1wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-11.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5f30…3aeebacked Team WE45c1,233$555 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$678.3314848.6%72 W · 76 L-13.8wins-0.09per pick58cpaid-18.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x31ed…d916backed Team WE49c1,030$505 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$525.31442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-11%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d2e…896dbacked Bilibili Gaming57c1,018$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$580.2733838.2%129 W · 209 L-21.4wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-17.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1316…48a4backed Bilibili Gaming56c999.99$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$559.9947455.3%262 W · 212 L-10.6wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x53ab…65aabacked Team WE43c998.98$434 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$564.981,60948.4%779 W · 830 L+24.6wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3e7…bf64backed Bilibili Gaming54c908.99$491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$490.851,15645.1%521 W · 635 L+10.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e47…a9a9backed Bilibili Gaming56c904.21$506 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506.3610949.5%54 W · 55 L-4.9wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-8.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9227…7cedbacked Bilibili Gaming58c902.22$523 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$523.2955347%260 W · 293 L-8.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-2.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x40ce…bf90backed Team WE46c900$414 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4861,15156%644 W · 507 L+25.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+8.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf38…848bbacked Bilibili Gaming56c888$497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$497.2814352.4%75 W · 68 L+0.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc99…e947backed Team WE46c839.2$386 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$453.176434.4%22 W · 42 L-5.3wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-23.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7e90…be2bbacked Team WE45c824.73$371 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$453.65463%34 W · 20 L+5.7wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+28.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x72a6…cfefbacked Team WE44c809.38$359 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$450.1629338.6%113 W · 180 L-11.1wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5a3c…38d3backed Team WE50c746$373 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37356432.1%181 W · 383 L-2.3wins0.00per pick32cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2714…960fbacked Bilibili Gaming54c700$378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37821150.7%107 W · 104 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x6dd9…bfe8backed Bilibili Gaming54c699.99$378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37864453.9%347 W · 297 L+16.3wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+9.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc34b…9296backed Team WE45c675$304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$371.2549847.2%235 W · 263 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x09ce…af35backed Team WE55c659.66$361 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$299.0432755.7%182 W · 145 L+17.8wins+0.05per pick50cpaid-4.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x27f5…c45dbacked Team WE47c650$306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$344.517438.5%67 W · 107 L-7.9wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-15.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb9d5…180abacked Team WE49c634.99$311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$323.851942.1%8 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-10.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c98…186dbacked Bilibili Gaming51c571.09$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.0722142.5%94 W · 127 L-13.2wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x26c6…1e14backed Bilibili Gaming54c556.04$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.2628350.2%142 W · 141 L+1.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x2a25…8055backed Team WE45c542$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$298.111446.5%53 W · 61 L-7.1wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-19.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3f17…7035backed Bilibili Gaming58c517.24$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30011567.8%78 W · 37 L+6.1wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+8.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe1e7…8a71backed Bilibili Gaming60c500$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30047933.6%161 W · 318 L-10.7wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b55…d74bbacked Bilibili Gaming51c500$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25586649.7%430 W · 436 L+18.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf4d9…c125backed Bilibili Gaming54c499.99$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.995265.4%34 W · 18 L+3.9wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+23.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0a7c…8964backed Bilibili Gaming54c443.36$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.4196054.2%520 W · 440 L+16.8wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d56…9ad8backed Team WE46c420$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.8850%4 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a3b…5fa5backed Bilibili Gaming55c409.09$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22565063.2%411 W · 239 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick62cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc304…4e30backed Bilibili Gaming58c402.03$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.182552%13 W · 12 L+0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid+8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b97…6084backed Bilibili Gaming56c400$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2241,24242.6%529 W · 713 L-18.2wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-15.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd04…a64abacked Bilibili Gaming55c363.64$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20011959.7%71 W · 48 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x94a1…2075backed Bilibili Gaming55c363.64$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20027050.7%137 W · 133 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick50cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f4e…b690backed Bilibili Gaming51c363.56$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.4282554.8%452 W · 373 L+5.3wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc30…c8a5backed Bilibili Gaming56c357.14$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20080832.9%266 W · 542 L-43.9wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-14.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6e8d…3a3dbacked Team WE44c348.48$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.6549346.5%229 W · 264 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ff2…c175backed Team WE44c345$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.240726.8%109 W · 298 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-5.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ad0…bd83backed Bilibili Gaming43c343.99$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.891060%6 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick52cpaid-1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa97f…a818backed Bilibili Gaming56c293.25$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.2232844.2%145 W · 183 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+11.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5ae4…011ebacked Bilibili Gaming51c276.73$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.136558.5%38 W · 27 L+8.6wins+0.13per pick45cpaid+45.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x503a…860abacked Team WE44c270.67$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.6729944.1%132 W · 167 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb03…46dcbacked Bilibili Gaming49c266.5$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.8142751.5%220 W · 207 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xeed6…ec56backed Bilibili Gaming57c263.42$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.1420649.5%102 W · 104 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9b1…242fbacked Team WE45c242.22$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.2230255.6%168 W · 134 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x99fe…b61cbacked Bilibili Gaming55c239.99$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.9936246.4%168 W · 194 L-0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x591d…f4dfbacked Team WE46c224$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.9614837.2%55 W · 93 L-7.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-2.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x72be…c534backed Team WE45c222.22$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.221,11435%390 W · 724 L+14.3wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x31c7…eca3backed Bilibili Gaming56c214.68$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.2212638.9%49 W · 77 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick40cpaid+1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b0c…d43abacked Team WE45c207.7$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.9514545.5%66 W · 79 L-7.6wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-13.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0362…2af9backed Bilibili Gaming56c205$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.855750.4%281 W · 276 L+0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid+2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf592…b62dbacked Bilibili Gaming57c202.61$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.4968557.5%394 W · 291 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Team WE40c201.98$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.382,49547.3%1,181 W · 1,314 L-32.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7eda…4bb7backed Bilibili Gaming56c200$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11248852%254 W · 234 L-2.4wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb891…969bbacked Team WE44c200$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1121,44713.3%192 W · 1,255 L-109.5wins-0.08per pick21cpaid-35.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.