Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on July 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdf94b676c9ce94acadfecca1100870140c1d8f95be2b7899ebd901326544a58b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,371
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,609
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,371 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 44c | 1,702$747 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$746.77 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 58c | 650.34$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.84 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe826…adb7backed Yes | 48c | 643.19$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.84 | 120 | 32.5%39 W · 81 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae0…7483backed Yes | 43c | 550.76$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.01 | 105 | 39%41 W · 64 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x433e…86fcbacked No | 56c | 421.05$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 66c | 405$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.04 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 56c | 389.17$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.39 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 57c | 279.15$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.13 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 43c | 278.19$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.62 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 54c | 240.74$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.74 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 41c | 218.38$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.49 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 37c | 165.36$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.13 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 58c | 164.19$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.28 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 56c | 146.45$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.71 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 53c | 141.49$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.5 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4b3…e571backed Yes | 72c | 137.97$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 46c | 119.92$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 57c | 107.87$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.74 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x296e…0b9abacked Yes | 44c | 104.13$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.82 | 57 | 22.8%13 W · 44 L | -7.1wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 55c | 95.91$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.29 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 45c | 93$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.85 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 58c | 81.66$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.57 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8859…89d6backed Yes | 37c | 81.61$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.55 | 95 | 41.1%39 W · 56 L | -9.2wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x55bc…52d8backed Yes | 46c | 79.3$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.48 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 42c | 77.71$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.68 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…13e5backed Yes | 43c | 75.57$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.49 | 85 | 43.5%37 W · 48 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 57c | 71$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.53 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 56c | 70.54$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.04 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 58c | 69.04$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 47c | 63.84$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 56c | 59.98$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.09 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 43c | 56$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.21 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 47c | 51.47$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d6b7backed No | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 274 | 61.7%169 W · 105 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb6…4f98backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -28%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbc…e05dbacked No | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked No | 57c | 49.91$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.57 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 62c | 49.61$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.69 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 46c | 47.57$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 56c | 46$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.24 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 58c | 45.52$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.99 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 46c | 40.64$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 51c | 40.34$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.62 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x914e…8355backed No | 56c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.58 | 168 | 59.5%100 W · 68 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb53…fde7backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 259 | 54.1%140 W · 119 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 43c | 36.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 55c | 36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ce0…6606backed No | 57c | 35.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80e8…2276backed No | 57c | 35.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed No | 56c | 33.82$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.02 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 180 | 43.3%78 W · 102 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a1b…6e41backed Yes | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 143 | 34.3%49 W · 94 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 57c | 27.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 55c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 56c | 23.64$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 20.59$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.24 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 57c | 19.04$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 284 | 56%159 W · 125 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 69c | 15.12$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on July 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on July 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on July 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.