Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on July 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x875f715488a17e635f4bb439ee79c79f47c0eb79becbd1dd5a28d0fb3a84bbd2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,332
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,886
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,332 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x527f…4c41backed Yes | 37c | 1,572$585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$987.17 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 33c | 1,438$476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$961.16 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3525…4964backed Yes | 39c | 1,100$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$672.73 | 56 | 19.6%11 W · 45 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0050…cad1backed No | 60c | 700$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.25 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 64c | 450$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 43c | 404.95$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.79 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe826…adb7backed Yes | 57c | 341.54$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.38 | 120 | 32.5%39 W · 81 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 37c | 310.99$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.82 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 41c | 279.24$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.68 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 19c | 277.29$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.39 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 65c | 228.69$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.85 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 62c | 219.07$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.88 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 66c | 199.68$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.43 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 64c | 176.23$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.47 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 7c | 175.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fb…182cbacked Yes | 64c | 159.9$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.11 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x476e…00a9backed Yes | 38c | 153.13$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.94 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 61c | 150$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.5 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 60c | 148.77$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 42c | 148.67$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.34 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 37c | 140$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.2 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 58c | 138.92$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.98 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 42c | 116.45$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.17 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 36c | 111.93$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.64 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 27c | 107.19$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.73 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 64c | 105.94$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.7 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 68c | 97.46$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.32 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 66c | 96$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.48 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…3a55backed Yes | 36c | 92$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.88 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 57c | 80$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 35c | 76.11$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.47 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 73c | 75.24$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.1 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 38c | 74.54$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.21 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 67c | 72.42$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.52 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 27c | 67.61$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.08 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 29c | 65.89$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.71 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 56c | 63.98$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.51 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacb0…4346backed Yes | 37c | 61.3$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.62 | 159 | 48.4%77 W · 82 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 39c | 61.13$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.13 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed Yes | 36c | 60$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.52 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 58c | 56.96$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.11 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe229…ea0fbacked No | 63c | 53.88$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.21 | 272 | 47.8%130 W · 142 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 66c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.75 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcd2…87c9backed No | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 113 | 44.2%50 W · 63 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 61c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98ad…5f89backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 32c | 44.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 41c | 43.65$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.78 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed No | 70c | 42.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.07 | 329 | 58.7%193 W · 136 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 58c | 41.62$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.02 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 35c | 40.05$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.96 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1075…19c1backed Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 173 | 24.3%42 W · 131 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 59c | 36.32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed No | 63c | 36.3$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.87 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbc…e05dbacked No | 66c | 35.13$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.19 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 31c | 33.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 41c | 28.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed No | 51c | 25.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 47c | 25.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 59c | 25.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 57c | 24.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 68c | 23.11$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 67c | 20.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 293 | 54.3%159 W · 134 L | -25.6wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9c3f…bc25backed No | 66c | 19.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36a2…b8fabacked No | 56c | 19.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 53c | 19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 284 | 56%159 W · 125 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked No | 59c | 17.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd489…7f08backed No | 78c | 17.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 95 | 66.3%63 W · 32 L | -9.2wins | -0.10per pick | 76cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x06e3…0f3ebacked No | 64c | 15.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6784…7565backed No | 67c | 15.17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on July 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on July 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.