Golf · resolved market

Will Jon Rahm finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 Augusta National Invitational?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdfa8e84fc48795ecafa622b057099a3f7aeefeb2aa597513319a64fd6fcba049

Rebuilt 4 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Apr 12, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Golfevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $13,696
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $15,377

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,696 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Golf is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Golf
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xb7f5…c669backed Yes	32c	10,042$3,213 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,213.32	68	7.4%5 W · 63 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-63%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x15a6…bf5dbacked No	68c	2,179$1,482 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$697.39	44	36.4%16 W · 28 L	-1.6wins	-0.04per pick	40cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcbb5…5ed9backed No	68c	1,471$1,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$470.78	8	87.5%7 W · 1 L	+2.0wins	+0.25per pick	63cpaid	+37.5%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe542…0a37backed No	68c	1,187$806 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$380.63	61	42.6%26 W · 35 L	+5.1wins	+0.08per pick	34cpaid	+12.9%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4133…e834backed No	68c	884.02$601 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$282.89	33	60.6%20 W · 13 L	+2.7wins	+0.08per pick	52cpaid	+11%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb046…857cbacked No	66c	735.26$488 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$246.85	37	45.9%17 W · 20 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x356f…639fbacked No	68c	686.56$467 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$219.7	16	18.8%3 W · 13 L	-2.5wins	-0.16per pick	35cpaid	-69.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x934f…5bd8backed No	68c	639.56$435 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$204.66	40	65%26 W · 14 L	+2.8wins	+0.07per pick	58cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xad88…3c1ebacked Yes	33c	581.7$192 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$191.96	15	33.3%5 W · 10 L	+1.5wins	+0.10per pick	23cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x312d…6814backed No	68c	501.24$341 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$160.4	70	62.9%44 W · 26 L	+4.5wins	+0.06per pick	56cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe239…14eabacked No	68c	494.05$336 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$158.1	26	69.2%18 W · 8 L	+3.9wins	+0.15per pick	54cpaid	+45.6%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0xd263…54a7backed No	68c	459.98$313 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$147.19	19	57.9%11 W · 8 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	56cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x523c…5348backed No	68c	375.24$255 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$120.08	10	60%6 W · 4 L	+0.3wins	+0.03per pick	57cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51f7…ae1fbacked No	68c	336.57$229 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$107.7	87	56.3%49 W · 38 L	+2.4wins	+0.03per pick	54cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b1e…e465backed No	68c	251.6$171 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$80.51	24	54.2%13 W · 11 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5825…4ffbbacked No	68c	160.17$109 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51.26	69	58%40 W · 29 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	56cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x58ca…0672backed No	68c	86.78$59 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.77	18	61.1%11 W · 7 L	+1.4wins	+0.08per pick	54cpaid	+14.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6f7d…fa9cbacked Yes	39c	49.68$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.27	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.23per pick	23cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdad6…0d14backed Yes	31c	48.18$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.94	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	+0.7wins	+0.06per pick	27cpaid	-13.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfea8…47aabacked No	67c	45.45$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	-0.6wins	-0.06per pick	62cpaid	-21.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x920c…09d1backed Yes	33c	43.63$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.4	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.1wins	+0.03per pick	30cpaid	+23.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x320a…6c9cbacked Yes	33c	43.63$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.4	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.33per pick	33cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1bf7…6f57backed No	68c	19.62$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.28	3	100%3 W · 0 L	+1.0wins	+0.34per pick	66cpaid	+55.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe193…466ebacked No	68c	18.98$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.07	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.14per pick	47cpaid	-51%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc491…8012backed No	68c	17.89$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.72	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.6wins	+0.30per pick	70cpaid	+42.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2754…1668backed No	69c	17.64$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.49	9	88.9%8 W · 1 L	+2.2wins	+0.24per pick	65cpaid	+41.6%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked No	64c	16.74$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.03	108	50%54 W · 54 L	+6.7wins	+0.06per pick	44cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Golf and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 32 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Jon Rahm finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 Augusta National Invitational?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event