NHL · resolved market
Spread: Sabres (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdfd26a509102af76cbf451cfd1d8a93b28203551cf3cb1420683caac75de9292
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Penguinsof Sabres, Penguins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,061
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,287
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,061 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Sabres | 33c | 3,091$1,029 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,029.33 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Penguins | 67c | 1,895$1,270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$625.35 | 169 | 55.6%94 W · 75 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Penguins | 67c | 1,080$724 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.4 | 751 | 55.8%419 W · 332 L | +12.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Sabres | 33c | 888$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.27 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Penguins | 66c | 464.23$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.84 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x011b…fcc3backed Penguins | 68c | 354.54$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.54 | 177 | 59.9%106 W · 71 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…a569backed Penguins | 69c | 347.83$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.83 | 226 | 55.8%126 W · 100 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Sabres | 38c | 221$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.19 | 1,406 | 47%661 W · 745 L | +58.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Penguins | 68c | 220.59$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.59 | 811 | 57.2%464 W · 347 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Penguins | 66c | 213.17$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.48 | 619 | 59.1%366 W · 253 L | +17.9wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe105…1efbbacked Sabres | 33c | 200$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Penguins | 67c | 160.74$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.28 | 1,230 | 53.7%661 W · 569 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a86…5664backed Sabres | 34c | 147.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 181 | 36.5%66 W · 115 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Sabres | 39c | 128.87$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.74 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Penguins | 63c | 121$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.19 | 393 | 44.8%176 W · 217 L | +23.3wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Sabres | 33c | 121$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.93 | 780 | 38.5%300 W · 480 L | +23.5wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2942…a018backed Penguins | 69c | 101.07$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.07 | 215 | 60.9%131 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Penguins | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Sabres | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 599 | 50.4%302 W · 297 L | +20.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe31…6573backed Sabres | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 210 | 42.4%89 W · 121 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Sabres | 32c | 95.21$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.47 | 1,092 | 50.4%550 W · 542 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c04…2e2dbacked Penguins | 68c | 74.58$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.58 | 542 | 60.3%327 W · 215 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Sabres | 32c | 63.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Sabres | 32c | 62.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.86 | 451 | 51.2%231 W · 220 L | +16.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Penguins | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 519 | 49.5%257 W · 262 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64e2…da93backed Sabres | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda16…6da2backed Penguins | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.85 | 200 | 59.5%119 W · 81 L | +19.6wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Sabres | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 418 | 47.8%200 W · 218 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c6f…b0d3backed Sabres | 32c | 47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Penguins | 69c | 43.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 401 | 62.1%249 W · 152 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Sabres | 30c | 43.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 326 | 50%163 W · 163 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3494…04f4backed Sabres | 34c | 42.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 94 | 58.5%55 W · 39 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Penguins | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 422 | 54.3%229 W · 193 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Sabres | 33c | 38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 860 | 49.2%423 W · 437 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b37…d7e9backed Penguins | 67c | 31.33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.33 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Penguins | 69c | 30.43$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 690 | 61.6%425 W · 265 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11f2…a7a0backed Penguins | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 50 | 64%32 W · 18 L | +7.1wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +21%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8677…4d2cbacked Penguins | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 134 | 61.2%82 W · 52 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Penguins | 66c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.82 | 916 | 53.9%494 W · 422 L | +39.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd843…757abacked Penguins | 69c | 21.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07c9…9f5bbacked Penguins | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 365 | 61.9%226 W · 139 L | +12.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Penguins | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1024…9651backed Penguins | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Sabres (-1.5)this page
- Penguins vs. SabresPenguins won
- Penguins vs. Sabres: O/U 6.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.