Fifa International · resolved market
New Zealand to score first vs. IR Iran?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe0242937637dfb1ab3398755f5c7ac9e548dca0050d466e68849d1d31b2f7934
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,900
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,366
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,900 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 39c | 3,491$1,372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,371.68 | 656 | 51.7%339 W · 317 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Yes | 29c | 1,391$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$987.61 | 2,171 | 38.2%829 W · 1,342 L | -36.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 70c | 788.3$552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$551.81 | 219 | 58%127 W · 92 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e39…352cbacked No | 70c | 764.29$533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$532.71 | 644 | 43.3%279 W · 365 L | -10.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Yes | 29c | 740.62$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525.84 | 2,603 | 37.8%984 W · 1,619 L | -40.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes | 30c | 700$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490 | 476 | 48.5%231 W · 245 L | +13.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 5c | 230$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 199 | 39.7%79 W · 120 L | -7.2wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Yes | 30c | 221.63$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.55 | 1,702 | 36.7%625 W · 1,077 L | -31.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa7…2723backed Yes | 32c | 156.25$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.25 | 62 | 27.4%17 W · 45 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…0d48backed Yes | 33c | 151.52$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.52 | 87 | 32.2%28 W · 59 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 12c | 140.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 2,793 | 46.6%1,301 W · 1,492 L | -10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf79c…cb96backed Yes | 30c | 125$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.5 | 920 | 38.5%354 W · 566 L | -21.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 31c | 109.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.69 | 2,327 | 18.1%422 W · 1,905 L | -363.0wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 32c | 108.95$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.45 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ac…6b83backed Yes | 34c | 73.53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.53 | 197 | 48.7%96 W · 101 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f82…91e5backed Yes | 32c | 57.66$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.21 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x500c…8acdbacked Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.14 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ed3…dcaebacked Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 42 | 9.5%4 W · 38 L | -5.7wins | -0.14per pick | 23cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f1…23eebacked Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 559 | 42.4%237 W · 322 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0800…ceb0backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 368 | 38.6%142 W · 226 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yes | 32c | 42.16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.67 | 4,027 | 38.9%1,568 W · 2,459 L | -26.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 68c | 42.16$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.67 | 2,453 | 34.7%850 W · 1,603 L | +84.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56f1…1659backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4695…4d22backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x660e…0e69backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked No | 65c | 30.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 2,973 | 28%831 W · 2,142 L | -132.5wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -39%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe540…0459backed No | 72c | 15.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New Zealand to score first vs. IR Iran?this page
- IR Iran to score first vs. New Zealand?No won
- IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Neither team to score first?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.