Fifa International · resolved market
IR Iran to score first vs. New Zealand?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7304d97dceb57ed57f494f0eefc13863a52be9de8721e915d8030297c28c6102
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $59,150
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $58,820
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,150 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x58ea…ac6cbacked Yes | 0c | 32,170$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86e9…4cdfbacked Yes | 61c | 5,752$3,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,500 | 362 | 47.2%171 W · 191 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 66c | 3,577$2,379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,198.75 | 656 | 51.7%339 W · 317 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1af3…b3b4backed No | 39c | 2,682$1,046 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,636.21 | 203 | 33.5%68 W · 135 L | -10.3wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked No | 79c | 2,303$1,825 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$477.29 | 2,973 | 28%831 W · 2,142 L | -132.5wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -39%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked No | 40c | 1,500$593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$906.98 | 476 | 48.5%231 W · 245 L | +13.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 59c | 1,155$687 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$686.75 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf531…121cbacked Yes | 59c | 1,102$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650 | 179 | 44.1%79 W · 100 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d40…bca6backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e39…352cbacked No | 41c | 999.94$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$589.96 | 644 | 43.3%279 W · 365 L | -10.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 39c | 950$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$579.5 | 219 | 58%127 W · 92 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed No | 39c | 885.78$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$537.79 | 2,805 | 55.1%1,546 W · 1,259 L | +70.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked No | 40c | 875$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525 | 597 | 52.1%311 W · 286 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa5…4702backed Yes | 60c | 833.33$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -5.6wins | -0.33per pick | 51cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x30da…a11dbacked Yes | 61c | 819.67$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 278 | 20.1%56 W · 222 L | -17.2wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed No | 40c | 726.43$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432.87 | 1,702 | 36.7%625 W · 1,077 L | -31.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9d…930fbacked Yes | 61c | 655.74$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 180 | 37.2%67 W · 113 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c25…c3bebacked No | 40c | 458.79$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.27 | 706 | 48.2%340 W · 366 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1b8…437cbacked Yes | 63c | 455.63$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.05 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59a8…eb4ebacked Yes | 59c | 423.73$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 169 | 46.7%79 W · 90 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 39c | 400$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244 | 2,634 | 32.9%867 W · 1,767 L | +43.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f7d…8b3ebacked Yes | 61c | 327.87$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 111 | 38.7%43 W · 68 L | +8.5wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…d5f3backed Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 125 | 44.8%56 W · 69 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d8d…0b73backed Yes | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 114 | 45.6%52 W · 62 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf79c…cb96backed No | 40c | 156.65$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.13 | 920 | 38.5%354 W · 566 L | -21.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09fe…76eebacked No | 40c | 154.68$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.81 | 178 | 56.2%100 W · 78 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e2c…9642backed Yes | 59c | 135.59$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 128 | 15.6%20 W · 108 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 40c | 130.18$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.11 | 208 | 51%106 W · 102 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 40c | 108.4$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.04 | 1,686 | 20.6%347 W · 1,339 L | -28.4wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd875…19cfbacked Yes | 61c | 101.64$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 228 | 24.6%56 W · 172 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5ac…b255backed Yes | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 52 | 42.3%22 W · 30 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2739…fd7cbacked Yes | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 91 | 35.2%32 W · 59 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +50.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1685…6de4backed Yes | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 272 | 39%106 W · 166 L | -12.8wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77ac…5750backed Yes | 59c | 66.57$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 47 | 72.3%34 W · 13 L | +10.7wins | +0.23per pick | 50cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0bac…5e09backed Yes | 60c | 57.92$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.75 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3c3…5034backed Yes | 61c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb6…9e4dbacked Yes | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 141 | 55.3%78 W · 63 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f5c…5a19backed Yes | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb3…f775backed Yes | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 72c | 30.77$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.59 | 2,793 | 46.6%1,301 W · 1,492 L | -10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 59c | 29.93$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 180 | 53.3%96 W · 84 L | -10.9wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -16%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Yes | 59c | 26.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 2,439 | 29%707 W · 1,732 L | -65.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dbb…fc9cbacked Yes | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee5…5e7dbacked Yes | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 163 | 66.3%108 W · 55 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8adc…6b14backed Yes | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 667 | 45%300 W · 367 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x303e…96ffbacked Yes | 61c | 21.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd232…b817backed Yes | 58c | 21.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 131 | 44.3%58 W · 73 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cdd…3e97backed Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 81 | 61.7%50 W · 31 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- IR Iran to score first vs. New Zealand?this page
- IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Neither team to score first?No won
- New Zealand to score first vs. IR Iran?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.